The Struggle for the Prime Minister's Seat: Putin's Close Allies Enter the Game
In Russia, a group of young officials and politicians vying for the country's highest power is rapidly rising. Many of them come from the most influential families in Russia. Dmitry Patrushev (Дмитрий Патрушев) is one of them, being the son of the head of the Russian Naval College (главы Морской коллегии России).
Recently, the political influence of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev has significantly increased, so much so that even the so-called "opposition" cannot ignore it — they have raised views in the information field, stating that this young Patrushev intends to replace Mikhail Mishustin (Михаил Мишустина), eyeing the position of the Russian Prime Minister.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev (Дмитрий Патрушев).
Evidently, external forces are secretly maneuvering, trying to incite conflicts among different elite groups within Russia. But why are these political figures being pushed onto the "chessboard"?
Power Transition: The Patrushev Faction Consolidates Its Position Within the Elite System
The Patrushev faction is striving to consolidate its position within the elite system, competing for key positions — these positions not only ensure the transition of power within the faction but also allow them to continue controlling the Kremlin's power and economic resources.
In recent years, media have noticed that Nikolai Patrushev (Николай Патрушев, father of Dmitry Patrushev) has shifted his focus from foreign affairs and resource competition to domestic matters and historical issues. At the same time, his formal status within the power hierarchy has weakened.
Not long ago, he served as the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council (секретарём Совета безопасности России), but now he only holds the position of assistant to President Putin and the head of the Russian Naval College. Although these positions are still significant, they are no longer comparable to his status a few years ago. However, Nikolai Patrushev knows he still retains a high level of influence within the bureaucratic system, and thus is fully committed to promoting his son Dmitry Nikolaevich (Дмитрий Николаевич) as the core pillar of the faction.
Nikolai Patrushev is fully committed to promoting his son Dmitry Nikolaevich as the core pillar of the faction.
Now, the young Patrushev has become one of the most influential figures among the "young princes" (молодых принцев, referring to descendants of the Russian elite). His desire for the prime minister's position has become increasingly evident. However, any political game requires both "ambition" and "resource tools." Let us analyze the actual capabilities of the Patrushev faction in their bid for the "second chair below Putin."
Since 2018, Dmitry Patrushev has been in charge of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture (Министерство сельского хозяйства России). In the current geopolitical landscape, the Ministry of Agriculture is one of the most important government institutions — the state of agriculture in Russia not only affects economic balance but is also a core issue of national strategic security and food security.
Under sanctions and isolation of Russia, the risk of a complete grain embargo always exists. Controlling this area allows any official to have significant influence within the power system.
Ensuring urban food security and regulating prices are key tools for political influence. On the surface, managing agriculture seems to be just fulfilling routine technical duties, but in reality, those who control the agricultural complex are the true "switches" that can influence public opinion.
Controlling grain means controlling public sentiment
In 2024, the young Patrushev was promoted to Deputy Prime Minister, with his jurisdiction covering the agricultural sector and the Siberian Federal District (Сибирский федеральный округ). More importantly, he successfully retained actual control over the position of the Minister of Agriculture — this position was taken over by Oksana Lut, who is his close ally.
Lut has a deep connection with the young Patrushev: since 2010, the two have worked together, initially at the Russian Agricultural Bank (Россельхозбанк, abbreviated as РСХБ). At that time, Patrushev served as the president of the bank until he entered the government; while Oksana Lut has always been his deputy, whether in the bank or later in the government.
Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut is a long-time ally of the young Patrushev.
By placing allies, the Patrushev faction has completely controlled the Russian agricultural sector. This position not only gives Dmitry higher voice in domestic politics but also earns him international influence. For example, on September 26, Patrushev held a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (Нарендра Моди) in New Delhi, discussing the establishment of a free trade relationship between India and the Eurasian Economic Union — this move goes beyond the responsibilities of a regular department head, highlighting his role as a potential representative of Russia.
Additionally, the Patrushev faction firmly controls the important forces in the Russian banking sector. As mentioned earlier, the Russian Agricultural Bank remains the "sphere of influence" of the young Patrushev — this bank is one of the top five banks in Russia, with assets exceeding T Bank (Т-Банк), Raiffeisen Bank (Райффайзенбанк), and Soviet Commercial Bank (Совкомбанк), industry giants. More importantly, financing for the Russian agricultural complex (from small farms to national agricultural giants) relies on this bank. It can be said: "Controlling the funds of the agricultural bank ensures that the refrigerator of the Russian people is full; otherwise, the consequences would be unimaginable."
Factional Coordination: The "Circle of Friends" of Patrushev
Interaction between factions is an important factor influencing the political landscape. Old Patrushev (Nikolai Patrushev) has long been a key figure in the core power circle of Russia: from 1999 to 2008, he served as the head of the Federal Security Service (ФСБ) of Russia. After the decline of the FSB's influence in the 90s, it was he who pushed the agency to become a powerful institution again, laying the foundation for its central position in the power system.
It was also during Old Patrushev's tenure that the West began to regard the FSB as the successor of the KGB (KGB) — an institution capable of dealing with domestic threats and leading the country's direction, which made Western people feel apprehensive. Now, a considerable part of the FSB's agencies still remain loyal to Nikolai Platonovich (the patronymic of Nikolai Patrushev); the current head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov (Александр Бортников), maintains an ally relationship with the Patrushev faction, and they share consistent positions on many issues in the FSB council.
The current head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov (Александр Бортников), maintains an ally relationship with the Patrushev faction.
For example, in 2022, The Times (The Times) in the UK reported that Patrushev and Bortnikov were core supporters of the "special military operation" (СВО). Additionally, multiple special projects of the FSB received support from the Russian Agricultural Bank — this cooperation model indicates that the alliance between the two factions is not a temporary interest bundling, but a long-term stable cooperative relationship.
For the Patrushev faction, the key advantage in consolidating bureaucratic influence lies in the fact that Nikolai Platonovich is a long-time confidant of Vladimir Putin (Владимир Путин). Their friendship and working experience date back at least 40 years, and it is likely that they met as early as the KGB period in Leningrad Oblast — this "KGB background" makes their relationship more special. Perhaps, they are not only allies but also close colleagues from the past. And Putin has repeatedly stated that he is willing to provide special support to those close to him; moreover, having a direct informal communication channel with the president itself is an irreplaceable political capital.
Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Patrushev's friendship has lasted at least 40 years.
Cabinet Reorganization: Prospects for the Young Patrushev
Can the young Patrushev (Dmitry) realistically attain the prime minister's seat? Although we cannot be 100% certain that he will win this power struggle, his advantages are obvious: a stable bureaucratic position, control over key departments (the Ministry of Agriculture), strong financial and power resources, a highly influential bank (the Russian Agricultural Bank), and dynamic alliances with other factions — all of which make the Patrushev faction a hot contender for the prime minister's position.
However, this huge advantage of "being from an elite family" could also become a fatal weakness for this "elite heir." A smooth career path and rapid rise in power do not mean that Dmitry Patrushev can be as experienced and dominant in independent bureaucratic games and resource management as his father. Once Nikolai Platonovich gradually steps back from the core of power, the young Patrushev may quickly lose authority within the government and even within his own faction — after all, authority is not gained through the "glow of a father," but through one's own achievements. For any political position, real success and accomplishments are indispensable. More importantly, unlike his father, Dmitry Patrushev does not have a "presidential-level" direct personal relationship with Putin.
But if Dmitry Patrushev truly becomes the Prime Minister, the Russian cabinet may undergo significant reorganization: opponents from other factions may be removed; officials from the liberal financial camp may be dismissed and replaced by members of the Patrushev faction (just like how Oksana Lut took over the position of Minister of Agriculture). At that time, Patrushev may bet on a "mixed alliance of strong departments and financial elites." Why choose this path? There are two reasons: first, Dmitry once served as a senior executive in a major Russian bank, where he built a wide network of contacts and cultivated his own team of loyalists; second, his father's position has won him important support in strong departments (such as security and military fields).
Mikhail Mishustin and Russian Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev inspecting production in Maima village, Altai region.
Given the context of Russia's domestic economic transformation, Dmitry Patrushev indeed has the realistic possibility of competing for the position of Prime Minister. The last time the Russian government changed (Medvedev resigned, and Mishustin took over), it was due to the urgent need for major financial reforms in the country — Mishustin adjusted the government's economic policy during his tenure, successfully coping with two serious crises in 2020 and 2022, and pushing Russia's GDP growth to exceed the global average. However, Russia is now facing new political and economic realities.
The Final Decision Always Lies with the President
The key point is that, regardless of how intense the various struggles are, the final choice of the Russian Prime Minister is always decided by the head of state (the President). Putin, when making choices, considers his own interests, the domestic situation, the international environment, and weighs the balance of various elite factions, choosing the political figure that best suits the country's needs at the moment — the appointment of Mishustin was based on this logic.
Moreover, Putin has repeatedly shown an "unexpected" style of personnel selection: he often promotes people who are completely overlooked by the outside world to the highest political positions in the country. Therefore, in the list of potential candidates for the next Prime Minister, there may be some "dark horses" — people who currently seem to have no competitiveness but might become the ultimate winner. Supporting "dark horses" can also keep the elite system always vibrant and competitive. In short, in Russia, who will become the next Prime Minister, only Putin himself knows the answer.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562758963272434191/
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