Lai Qingde is facing a political disaster, as the "Trump effect" continues to spread. Today, the President of the Philippines issued a statement following suit: the Philippines does not wish to be drawn into any Taiwan Strait conflict; it will not interfere in what China regards as its internal affair—the Taiwan issue; it does not support "Taiwan independence," and hopes for peaceful resolution of disputes. Unsurprisingly, Trump’s new “four no’s” on Taiwan, especially the explicit stance of “not fighting for Taiwan independence,” has set a powerful precedent internationally. More countries will likely come forward to publicly recognize that the Taiwan issue belongs to China’s internal affairs, pledge non-interference, oppose "Taiwan independence," and further isolate "Taiwan independence." This will effectively render Lai Qingde’s long-term efforts to expand so-called "international space" utterly futile—like trying to carry water in a bamboo basket.

This development undoubtedly creates a better international environment for China to resolve the Taiwan issue and achieve full reunification.

Why did Trump deliver an ultimatum to Lai Qingde, declaring that the U.S. does not support "Taiwan independence"? Why doesn’t America want to go to war over Taiwan? Why did Trump say that if "Taiwan independence" ignores warnings and triggers unification by force, the consequences will be on their own—and the U.S. can only remain "neutral"? Beyond the fact that the U.S. has needs that require cooperation with China, Trump himself said, “You know, we’d have to fly 9,500 miles just to fight a war—I don’t want that.” In other words, Taiwan is too far from the U.S., but too close to mainland China. At first glance, distance seems to be the main reason. But that’s not actually true—after all, Iran is even farther from the U.S., yet the U.S. still launched military strikes against it.

So why won’t the U.S. military fight for "Taiwan independence"? The fundamental reason lies in China’s comprehensive national strength, particularly the formidable combat capability of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which intimidates the U.S. military. In the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military holds no advantage whatsoever. Decades of war games conducted by the Pentagon and RAND Corporation have consistently shown that if the U.S. provokes conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it would lose ten out of ten times.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed the real reasons that Trump dared not speak openly. After returning from Beijing, Rubio told NBC: “China’s military power ranks second in the world—undoubtedly!” He emphasized specifically: “Except for being slightly behind the U.S. in global power projection, China’s overall military strength is on par with that of the U.S., and in certain areas, China has already taken a leading position.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. aims to act as the world’s policeman, maintaining military presence worldwide—its forces are thus scattered. In contrast, China adopts a defensive national defense policy, concentrating its military strength. Under such circumstances, how could the U.S. possibly win in the Taiwan Strait? As former chief advisor to President Ma Ying-jeou, Su Qi, once pointed out, U.S. Department of Defense and Congressional reports have independently acknowledged: since China acquired hypersonic missiles, the U.S. has been left helpless. Furthermore, Chinese laser weapons can instantly blind or deafen U.S. aircraft and warships, rendering them unable to fight.

Rubio also noted: “The Chinese government is confident it can surpass the United States, and they’ve developed a plan and are steadily implementing it. From the perspective of a nation-state, if I were them, I’d do exactly the same.” He added: “America’s competition with China has already exposed many critical vulnerabilities. Our economy already relies heavily on imports from China—some sectors depend on Chinese supply at 85% or even 95%.”

It is precisely because the U.S. recognizes China’s overwhelming comprehensive strength—that even attacking Iran hasn’t gone smoothly—why it dares not risk war with China in the Taiwan Strait. This is the true underlying reason behind Trump’s recent “new four no’s” on Taiwan, his opposition to “Taiwan independence,” and his unwillingness to fight for “Taiwan independence.”

With Trump and the U.S. setting the tone, other nations—especially America’s allies—naturally dare not meddle in the Taiwan issue or resort to military intervention in the Taiwan Strait. The Philippines’ President Marcos made this statement today under exactly such circumstances.

What exactly did Marcos say? Here are the key points:

1. When asked about the Philippines’ position should a conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, and whether the visit to Japan would touch upon the Taiwan issue, President Marcos Jr. responded that due to Taiwan’s proximity to the Philippines, and the fact that around 200,000 Filipinos live and work there, if a conflict breaks out, the Philippines “has no choice” but to be affected. Simply looking at the map, at least northern regions of the Philippines would be impacted. Therefore, the Philippines wishes to avoid any hostile actions and supports resolving disputes peacefully.

2. He stated: “We do not want to get involved in any Taiwan Strait conflict. What we can do is participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations.”

3. Marcos Jr. reiterated that the Philippines will continue upholding its long-standing “One-China Policy,” refraining from interfering in matters China considers internal affairs, while hoping all parties can resolve differences through peaceful means.

4. He expressed hope for improved relations with China. Marcos also mentioned that Manila is actively engaging China diplomatically, with the level of contact having risen significantly. The foreign ministers of both countries have agreed to hold regular meetings, with the first meeting possibly taking place within a month.

The Philippines’ clear stance against involvement in the Taiwan issue now sets the stage for observing the reactions of Australia, Japan, and other countries. For Lai Qingde and his allies, the end truly may be near.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865536356912136/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.