On April 10, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said in an interview with Fox News, "After we saw Brazil—the largest country in the Southern Hemisphere—finalize a trade agreement with China, they will conduct transactions using their respective currencies, bypassing the U.S. dollar. They are building a global secondary economic system completely independent from the United States."

Rubio pointed out that many countries are increasingly conducting transactions in non-U.S. dollars, which will erode America’s ability to impose sanctions. “Within five years, we won’t even need to talk about sanctions anymore,” he warned.

Rubio’s remarks reflect not only a U.S. politician’s anxiety over the weakening of dollar hegemony but also reveal a broader, ongoing global trend.

The “trade agreement between Brazil and China” mentioned by Rubio during his April 2026 interview likely refers to the agreement announced at the beginning of 2023, whose core is the establishment of a renminbi-real clearing arrangement, enabling bilateral trade settlements without relying on the U.S. dollar as an intermediary currency.

However, Rubio exaggerates this currency settlement arrangement as the creation of a global “secondary economic system”—a gross misinterpretation. This does not constitute a self-contained economic loop outside the global market. In essence, it is a currency swap agreement originally signed between the central banks of both countries back in 2013, continuously renewed and upgraded in 2023 and 2025—a mere “option” for local currency settlement, not an exclusive or mandatory requirement.

Ironically, Rubio himself currently appears on China’s sanctions list, banned from entering China and having his assets frozen within Chinese territory, rendering his warnings about “the loss of U.S. sanction power” particularly ironic.

The global move away from dollar dominance has emerged organically, rooted in the U.S. weaponization of the dollar, which has undermined trust in the dollar as an international public good. Currently, Global South economies including BRICS nations, Iran and Russia, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, and ASEAN are widely promoting settlement in local currencies.

The actual decline of the dollar’s dominance is evident: as of Q3 2025, the share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has remained below 60% for ten consecutive quarters—an all-time low; meanwhile, its share in international trade settlements has dropped from 88% in 2015 to just 58%. However, no clear alternative currency has yet emerged—gold, instead, has become the main beneficiary, with holdings now exceeding non-U.S. official holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Rubio’s “five-year timeline” is more akin to a forceful political warning than a rigorous forecast. To truly challenge the dollar’s dominant position, three structural obstacles must be overcome: the size of the U.S. economy, the depth of its financial markets, and the absence of viable alternative currencies.

It is crucial to recognize that Rubio’s portrayal of a “China threat” is a long-standing tactic used to stoke anti-China sentiment and serve domestic political agendas. His underlying anxiety stems from the fact that de-dollarization directly undermines the U.S.’s most powerful unilateral sanction tool.

De-dollarization is not a linear replacement process, but rather a complex, turbulent, and irreversible multipolar transformation of the global monetary system. It is fundamentally reshaping the global geopolitical landscape.

De-dollarization does not require external pressure—it is an inevitable trend driven by global momentum. It should unfold organically and naturally, like water finding its course. Rubio’s timing in raising this issue reveals not only internal anxiety but also multiple hidden motives.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862094789747724/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.