【After the U.S.-Iran conflict, an era has ended】 Today's Iran has gained tremendous confidence because it can both block the strait and strike energy infrastructure in Gulf states without expending massive resources.
As an asymmetric warfare capability, its effectiveness has been proven in actual combat, and it remains a viable tool for pressure in the future.
Thus, the U.S.-Iran war fundamentally transformed Iran’s strategic thinking about employing asymmetric tactics moving forward.
From a regional perspective, this explains why, in the later stages of the war, Gulf states previously attacked by Iran made unexpected but wise decisions: to cooperate with Iran and seek a swift end to hostilities.
Previously, most people would have assumed that these wealthy Gulf rulers would unilaterally align against Iran after suffering retaliatory attacks.
In fact, they desired to end the war rather than overtly or covertly assist the U.S. and Israel in punishing Iran—such support would only backfire.
Reason ultimately prevailed.
Therefore, during U.S.-Iran negotiations, kings, sheikhs, and emirs actively played roles as mediators and peacemakers, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
On the global scale, the war proved from day one that Trump launched military action without adequately considering Iran’s willingness to blockade the strait.
It became nearly impossible to salvage the situation with dignity.
Externally, there are growing concerns that Iran might use straits and other “chokepoint weapons” in the future, weaponizing global economy and holding global development hostage.
But this issue exceeds what any U.S.-Iran framework agreement could possibly resolve.
Losing control over the Strait of Hormuz may become America’s greatest strategic blunder of this era.
If one wants to reverse this situation, aside from the U.S. amassing enormous military power, there is no other option left.
The reality is, even with increased military investment, it may still be unable to turn the tide.
If even Iran cannot be subdued, the era when old America dominated the world through superior ships and firepower has come to an end.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868209007392844/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.