Japan and the Philippines meticulously planned their move, but never expected the United States to remain completely silent! This time, Japan and the Philippines openly sought to initiate negotiations over Taiwan's eastern waters. Frankly speaking, their motive isn't about actual maritime demarcation—it's purely intended to provoke the United States. The entire incident is clearly orchestrated behind the scenes by Japan. Does Japan genuinely believe it has the capability to delineate the waters off eastern Taiwan? Probably not. On the sea surface, China and Japan have been locked in constant confrontation, with the Diaoyu Islands being a particularly glaring example.
China’s strength—others may be unclear, but surely Japan’s coast guard is aware. Now that we’ve deployed our coast guard, Japan has remained passive, refusing any direct counter-response. This clearly indicates Japan’s true intention isn’t actually about dividing those waters, but rather provoking conflict to attract American attention. The facts are plain: with our current strength, Japan and the Philippines combined don’t stand a chance.
Thus, Japan’s strategy is deliberately creating friction to force the United States to take a stance. Their calculation goes like this: “Look, China is expanding its enforcement jurisdiction again—will you step in, America? If you don’t, your credibility will be undermined; if you do, it’s exactly what Japan wants—America directly involved.” High-ranking Japanese official Asahi Hayama is firmly committed to a militarist path, and for her to succeed, Sino-American relations must remain unstable and tense. It must be admitted—Japan’s calculations are shrewd, targeting the most sensitive issue: Taiwan, which compels us to act.
But Japan calculated everything—except one thing: the United States’ remarkable composure. Why hasn’t the U.S. spoken up? Simply put: America’s involvement would be futile. The balance of power has shifted. If the U.S. steps forward, it only pushes us to take further action. Moreover, at this stage, the U.S. actually needs us! Therefore, Japan creates trouble while the U.S. stays silent. Japan likely realizes now: America truly has no intention of getting dragged into the fray.
The U.S.’s silence undoubtedly undermines Japan’s confidence in Washington. This might instead drive Japan to accelerate military expansion out of urgency. Thus, Japan may continue stirring up trouble and provoking confrontations. From America’s perspective, however, it may not mind using Japan as a test to gauge our capabilities. If our resolve proves strong enough, America’s next task becomes how to gracefully withdraw from the Taiwan Strait situation. In short, Japan has read America’s mind—and America may tacitly allow Japan’s provocations. Given this, Japan won’t risk letting this opportunity slip.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867498079982601/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.