On October 16, 2025, the Institute of China at Fudan University jointly with the "Oriental Journal", Observer News, DiLang Culture, and the Shanghai Chunqiu Strategic Development Research Institute successfully held the "2025 Thinkers Forum" in Shanghai. This forum was also part of the series of academic activities celebrating the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the Institute of China at Fudan University, with the theme "Chinese Discourse and the Reconstruction of the World Order", focusing on major issues facing China and global development for in-depth discussions.

During his speech, Martin Jacques, former senior researcher at the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge, pointed out that the world is currently in a profound transformation period where the old order is gradually fading and a new order is emerging, with a multipolar competitive pattern becoming increasingly clear. He emphasized that the 2008 financial crisis marked the beginning of this long-term global shift, which not only weakened American confidence but also accelerated China's rise and the decline of the international order since World War II.

In addition, Martin Jacques stated that Trump's re-election marks a new stage in the global crisis. The "America First" policy is further intensifying the differences between the United States and its traditional allies, and it attempts to maintain hegemony through trade protectionism and containment of China, reflecting a strategic orientation that focuses on short-term responses rather than long-term vision.

The content of this article is compiled from the speaker's remarks, and it only represents the personal views of the speaker, for readers' learning and exchange reference.

Martin Jacques

[Speech/Martin Jacques]

As one scholar put it in the 1990s, "The old world is gradually dying, and a new world is being born; we have entered an era of multiple power struggles." This statement still holds true today, and we must recognize that the uncertainty and unpredictability of the world are constantly increasing. Since Trump took office in 2016, this trend has been exacerbated; after his re-election in 2024, the uncertainty has further expanded. In the face of such complex global changes, how should we understand and respond?

First, we can start by talking about the Western financial crisis of 2008. This crisis weakened the arrogance and confidence of many American elites, while at the same time, China's rise has become an undeniable fact. Although some European economists have pointed out that China's GDP growth rate slowed down after the crisis compared to before, there is a noticeable division within the United States, and populism has risen, leading to a significant shift in U.S. policy toward China.

China's rise indeed affected America's hegemony. The 2008 crisis marked the beginning of a sustained global crisis, with the core being the rupture of Sino-U.S. relations, which had far-reaching effects on the whole world. The essence of this global crisis is the decline of the American-led international order since 1945, and the formation of a new type of world order with China's rise.

This current era is undoubtedly a period of major change. In modern history, it can be compared to the period between the two world wars: at that time, Britain, as the global hegemon, was declining, the international financial system fell into depression, and the formation of hostile trade groups eventually led to the outbreak of World War II. The global crisis caused by the decline of Britain began in 1929 and was resolved only after the United States established a new world order after 1945.

I do not think that the current global crisis will unfold and resolve in exactly the same form or stage, and it cannot be simply compared. The current crisis is essentially long-term, accompanied by many international conflicts and crises. The global crisis triggered by 2008 is still in the relatively early or middle stage, and it is unlikely to be resolved within the next ten years, likely to last much longer. During this process, we will witness wars, economic crises, major conflicts, multiple contradictions, and the global situation will become more unstable and unpredictable.

A scholar once divided historical periods like this: when the situation tends to stabilize slowly, it is called "static warfare"; when deep changes come, it enters the "mobile warfare" stage. He believed that the period from 1945 to 2008 was the static warfare period, and the current global crisis is the prelude to mobile warfare, heralding the arrival of profound changes.

Trump's re-election as president marks a new stage in the global crisis. Since his first term, the U.S. strategy has become more explicit—placing American interests at the core of all policies. From tariff policies to alliance relationships, it reflects the guiding principle of "America First." His attitude toward traditional allies such as Japan and South Korea did not provide special privileges, reflecting the decreasing importance of the U.S. alliance system in its strategy—this trend is exacerbating the fragmentation of the international alliance system established since 1945.

The goals of the Trump 2.0 government are clear: to strengthen the U.S. economy at the expense of other countries and traditional allies. This strategic orientation, including the "U.S. fortress" mindset, strong hostility toward the BRICS and developing countries, and positioning China as the main strategic opponent, in a way, returns to the international relations paradigm before 1939.

However, as a political leader, Trump has shown some hesitation and inconsistency in actions against China. He has increasingly realized that China is a formidable opponent with various countermeasures. Therefore, he has made extensive preparations for dealing with China. At the same time, the Trump 2.0 government has shown a growing tendency towards authoritarianism domestically, striving to weaken opposition forces, strengthen military deployments, and politicize institutions such as the National Guard. These measures mark the end of the relatively benign international image that the United States once presented, and the United States is unlikely to return to the past, while its isolationist stance continues to deepen.

Trump's governing style has also weakened the relationship between the United States and the EU, Japan, South Korea, and even India. It is worth noting that if the ties between China and India continue to strengthen, it may severely undermine the effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies. Although he tried to provoke a conflict between China and India, he overestimated India's influence in this situation. Trump claims to be good at transactions, but in reality, he is not. The U.S. stock market carries significant bubble risks, and the potential consequences of a sharp decline are unpredictable. It shows that he is good at dealing with immediate problems—as demonstrated during his first term—but lacks the ability to handle long-term challenges.

Overall, Trump is unlikely to become a strategic rival of China. China's strategic thinking is more long-term, which has been the foundation of its continuous rise since 1973. China demonstrates forward-looking planning and execution in most aspects. The competition between China and the United States mainly takes place in the economic field, especially in the digital economy. China has achieved parity with the United States in most technology fields, and there are still some lags in certain areas. The remarkable achievements of the past decade have proven this point.

China's foreign policy has also made significant progress, with its strategy for building a new world order always focusing on strengthening cooperation with countries in the Global South. This axis has been cultivated for many years, and significant progress has been made in recent years. The future has already arrived, and we are continuously moving away from the old world order, entering a new period of growth and reconstruction.

Thank you!

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