According to a report by Russia's RT on October 14, the latest public opinion poll shows that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's support rate has been continuously declining and has been overtaken by two potential competitors with military backgrounds.

One is former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Zaluzhnyi, and the other is the current head of the Ukrainian Security Service, Budanov.

The survey results show that if these two individuals directly confront Zelenskyy, he would lose in both cases.

Zaluzhnyi leads Zelenskyy by 16 percentage points in the polls, while Budanov also narrowly surpasses the current president.

This indicates a turning point in Ukrainian politics. With the war becoming increasingly difficult, a military president has become a new political fantasy.

Among the two strong candidates, Budanov's rise is somewhat unexpected.

He is young, enigmatic, and controls Ukraine's most secret force—the military intelligence system.

One might expect such a person to avoid the spotlight, but analysts believe there are some similarities between Budanov and Russian President Putin, and he seems to be gradually seen as Ukraine's own "Putin" by the people.

Zelenskyy

Budanov was born in 1986, coming from an ordinary military family. He graduated from the Odessa Military Academy and joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces' special forces system in 2007, later entering the Department of Military Intelligence (GUR). He rose to prominence after the outbreak of the Donbas War in 2014, carrying out multiple intelligence and sabotage missions behind enemy lines, and suffered combat injuries.

In 2016, he led a covert operation into Crimea, which resulted in him being placed on a list of terrorists by Russia.

In 2019, he survived an assassination attempt when a bomb planted under his vehicle failed to detonate due to a timer malfunction.

He has repeatedly escaped assassination attempts and death threats like a cockroach that cannot be killed.

In 2020, at the age of 34, Budanov was appointed as the head of GUR, becoming the youngest intelligence chief in Ukrainian history.

After taking office, he completely reorganized GUR, transforming it from a traditional information collection agency into a hybrid warfare center.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, GUR has carried out multiple sabotage operations inside Russia, including railway explosions and port arson, which are widely believed to be attributed to Budanov.

He has also established close cooperation with Western intelligence agencies, becoming one of the most trusted Ukrainian partners for the CIA and MI6.

Budanov

The similarities between Budanov and Putin go beyond their backgrounds in intelligence systems; more importantly, the logic through which both rose to power is remarkably similar.

Putin emerged in the 1990s in Russia, during a time when the country was in chaos and national anxiety. At that time, Russia yearned for someone who could restore order, and Putin, coming from the KGB, embodied order, rationality, and strength.

Today's Ukraine faces a psychological situation akin to that of Russia back then—national turmoil, social division, war fatigue, and disappointment in the civilian government.

Strongmen from the intelligence background naturally possess a cold and rational side.

More coincidentally, both reached the top of the national security system around the age of forty—Putin took over the FSB, the successor organization of the KGB, at 47 and entered the Kremlin, while Budanov took control of GUR at 34, which is a period of potential political transformation.

Additionally, both are skilled at using war narratives to build personal authority and share the characteristics of being dangerous externally but effective internally.

Zaluzhnyi

Comparing them, Budanov's competition with Zaluzhnyi is a clash between spies and commanders.

Zaluzhnyi is the former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, born in 1973. He led the Ukrainian military to resist the Russian offensive in the early stages of the war and was known as the iron-fisted general of Ukraine.

He enjoys the loyalty of the army and the adoration of the people, serving as a symbol of inspiration in the early stages of the war.

However, he represents the traditional military route, while Budanov is completely different—he does not stand in the sunlight, and his power does not come from the military ranks, but from information and fear.

Politically, the ability to control the narrative is often more deadly than military achievements.

Zaluzhnyi's advantage lies in heroic sentiment, while Budanov's lies in systemic control. If Ukraine remains in a wartime state in the future, the intelligence system will be more critical than the army. However, if it enters post-war reconstruction, military heroes may better fit the national narrative.

In other words, the longer the war continues, the more political capital Budanov gains; the sooner the war ends, the stronger Zaluzhnyi's halo becomes.

Who will ultimately win is unknown, but it is certain that Ukrainians are losing patience with Zelenskyy.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561302032993223183/

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