The AUKUS faces disintegration, experts: "AUKUS" best proves Australia's pro-American and anti-China stance.

Without high-level political contacts, the "AUKUS" (AUKUS, the US-UK-Australia Alliance) will disintegrate. Australia fears losing leverage to pressure China.

President Trump dashed the hopes of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to discuss the prospects of AUKUS, as he left the G7 summit in Canada early, preventing their first face-to-face meeting. The remarks by UK Prime Minister Starmer about continuing cooperation with the US and Australia regarding AUKUS were just a little comfort for Anthony Albanese.

The Trump administration paused the project for 30 days to review whether it aligns with his "America First" agenda. This review was initiated by Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, who is skeptical of AUKUS. This investigation made Australia worry that the U.S. might abandon the trilateral agreement reached in 2021. Although the UK has reviewed and approved participation in the project, this has not eliminated future uncertainties or growing concerns among Australian supporters of AUKUS.

Vasily Kashin, a military analyst, director of the Center for European and International Comprehensive Research at the Higher School of Economics, and chief researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Russia's Sputnik News in an interview that the project requires strong political impetus.

Expert Vasily Kashin said, "This project involves establishing technically complex military infrastructure and defense production capacity. Australia is a raw material economy, and in recent years, due to the special nature of its liberal economic policies, its industrial potential has significantly declined. Many factories there have closed down, making AUKUS a very technically challenging task for Australia. In any multilateral project, there are always many problems, misunderstandings, and financial disputes that need constant resolution. This often requires political interaction; otherwise, nothing can progress. This is no exception. From a political perspective, the AUKUS project is crucial for all participants, but in reality, it was foreseeable from the beginning that it would encounter numerous difficulties."

After the U.S. suspended the AUKUS project, the Australian prime minister lost no time in emphasizing that the project serves the interests of all three parties because it fears losing leverage to pressure China. Australia has decided not to allow China to exert any political influence on it and will resist such attempts. The Sino-Australian trade war began in 2020. For the Australian political elite, any influence from China is unacceptable, and they would rather bear any losses. They continue to do so around the AUKUS project. They will take the clearest pro-American and anti-China stance on all issues. There is some criticism within Australia, but not enough. They hope to enhance their defensive capabilities by playing a more dangerous role in the American alliance system, including through participation in AUKUS.

Senior researcher Zhou Rong of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China told Russia's Sputnik News in an interview that the U.S. will not easily offend Australia, but will drag its feet a bit to make the Albanese government more compliant and obedient to American will.

Expert Zhou Rong said, "Although Australia is not a formal member of the G7, it is often invited to participate in the G7 Summit alongside India and South Korea. Therefore, Australia considers itself a candidate for the G7 and has high expectations for it. It also hopes that deepening cooperation with AUKUS will help it join the group. All along, Australia has placed great importance on AUKUS, believing that its significance lies in being the second platform where the U.S. transfers the most advanced nuclear submarine technology to allies.

Currently, the U.S.'s top priority is the 'America First' principle, and its position and attitude on the AUKUS issue have also undergone some changes accordingly. Although the U.S. political circle generally supports the AUKUS agreement clearly, the new administration must adjust its strategy according to the situation of Sino-Australian relations after taking office. As we all know, Sino-Australian relations have recently warmed up, especially on economic and trade issues. The U.S. obviously does not welcome this, as 'America First' means that Australia must follow the U.S. and maintain high consistency in political stance. Additionally, the U.S. has proposed a series of conditions for selling nuclear submarines to Australia, including requiring Australia to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, demanding that Australia fully cover the costs of deploying U.S. nuclear submarines, expanding bases, and providing logistical support in Australia, and requiring Australia to cooperate with U.S. military actions in the Indo-Pacific region.

In this context, the U.S. may find various reasons to raise the price of selling nuclear submarines to Australia, such as using Sino-U.S. relations as a bargaining chip. However, I don't think Australia cannot buy U.S. nuclear submarines because the U.S. needs to maintain its military alliance with Australia, and Australia is an important member of the Quad Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia.

According to Australian media reports, Albanese feels tense and is facing increasing pressure from the opposition and lawmakers to review the necessity of the project.

The failure of the AUKUS agreement could deal a significant blow to Australia's western region as the future nuclear submarine base. Last week, ten members of parliament sent a letter to Defense Minister Richard Marles, calling for a parliamentary investigation into AUKUS. The investigation should include whether the project has fully utilized Australia's resources and whether it aligns with national security interests.

According to Australian media reports, Albanese not only feels tense but is also facing increasing pressure from the opposition and lawmakers to review the project.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1835193874124928/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's views.