Reference News, July 7 report - According to the UK's The Guardian website on July 5, Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariff plan in spring, but had to halt it a few days later as panic swept global markets. His officials quickly described this concession as temporary.

They claimed that three months of tense negotiations would allow the Trump administration to reach dozens of trade agreements with countries around the world. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told Fox Business News reporters: "We need to move quickly. It is possible to achieve 90 agreements within 90 days."

The 90-day period during which Trump ordered the suspension of high tariffs is about to expire, but no 90 agreements have been reached. The United States is set to launch trade attacks against dozens of countries again, including a 27% tariff on Kazakhstan, a 47% tariff on Madagascar, and a 36% tariff on Thailand.

At an earlier press briefing, when asked about the deadline on the 9th, Trump said: "I haven't considered a suspension. I will write letters to many countries. I think you are just beginning to understand the process."

Business leaders, lobbyists, economists, and investors may disagree. Even some officials in the Trump administration sometimes don't understand. Another cliff edge is appearing, forcing them to reconsider a familiar question: Will he really go through with it?

Mark Busch, professor of international business diplomacy at Georgetown University in the U.S., said: "I doubt he is serious. I think he will give the green light to countries that are willing to negotiate sincerely. But by July 9, much of the news will involve high tariffs that the U.S. has never seen since the 1930s."

A small number of agreements have already been reached, easing some tensions. First was a partial agreement with the UK, then a delicate truce with China, and an agreement with Vietnam. Officials also said a "framework" arrangement is about to be reached with the EU.

But the scope of these breakthroughs is far less than traditional free trade agreements, which may take years to finalize.

Busch said: "These are not real trade agreements. These are ceasefires. These are procurement agreements, which may soothe Trump for a while, but they might not, and they include some wishful thinking."

Even if Trump extends the 90-day suspension next week or reaches countless agreements at an extremely fast pace, the current tariff rates are still much higher than before he returned to the White House. Their impact is still reflected in prices faced by American consumers.

John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs, said: "I would say that the U.S. economy is certainly more optimistic than the narrative or expectations after 'Liberation Day'. People still expect inflation to further intensify this summer."

According to an analysis by the Morgan Stanley Research Institute, if the U.S. maintains a 10% general tariff rate on all imports, and imposes a 55% higher rate on China, and 25% on Mexico and Canada, U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises will face an additional cost of about $82.3 billion.

The analysts at the institute said these companies play a key role in regional economies and as part of larger supply chains. "If they get into trouble, it could trigger a chain reaction for other businesses and communities," they said.

If the U.S. government re-imposes the "Liberation Day" tariffs after the suspension, the costs for businesses will rise sharply. But even without re-imposing these tariffs, the tariffs already implemented by Trump and continuing to take effect will impose significant costs on businesses.

Busch said the government's strategy is to significantly increase tariffs on a country, then cut those tariffs because of an agreement, which "is like a retailer raising prices by 100% today and then announcing a 30% discount the next day." He also said: "It's strange that we're still arguing about this. U.S. businesses have already absorbed these tariffs and passed part of them on to consumers."

No federal senior official has spoken more openly about this reality than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell said at a recent press conference: "Someone has to pay for the tariffs." He pointed out that the costs permeate the supply chain from the original manufacturer to the customer who buys the product.

Trump does not think so; he insists that tariffs are taxes on other countries, not on U.S. businesses and consumers.

Those who look at the issue from a long-term perspective believe that regardless of what happens in the coming days, the main actions he has taken in recent months—such as imposing a 10% comprehensive tariff—may continue to be implemented for many years to come. (Translated by Ge Xuele)

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