【By Guan Jiaqi, Observers Network】

Unhappy with the Trump administration's excessive tariffs, India-US trade and economic relations are currently in a low point. In this context, India is re-adjusting its relationship with China, leading to a warming trend in Sino-India relations.

The New York Times reported on the 18th, citing analysts' views that India's recent shift in stance towards China might be a strategic move to counteract the impact of the Trump administration. Therefore, China will respond to India's friendly signals with a cautious optimism.

Vijay Gokhale, former Indian ambassador to China, recently wrote in an article in Indian media that although there are still many differences in interests between China and India, he acknowledged that China, as a source of capital and technology, and a partner in combating climate change, provides a key force for India and other developing countries to counter "Trumpian disorder."

Lin Minwang, vice president and researcher at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, pointed out, "If India seeks to improve relations with China, China welcomes it. However, China will not make major concessions or sacrifices for India's so-called 'diplomatic gestures.'"

Lin Minwang clearly stated that China will never compromise on matters related to national interests, even if its position may displease the Indian government.

"India's current actions are mainly strategic," Lin Minwang added, "due to the deterioration of India-US relations, India has made some friendly gestures towards China. I believe China will carefully assess these developments."

In February this year, Modi met with Trump at the White House. Visual China

The New York Times noted that earlier, it was reported that Indian Prime Minister Modi would visit China in late August to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit. If this happens, it will be Modi's first visit to China in seven years. China has welcomed this.

The Indian Express quoted informed sources saying that Modi's participation in the SCO Tianjin Summit also creates the possibility of a leaders' meeting between India and China. Potential topics for discussion could include further normalization of relations, including easing tensions in border areas, resuming direct flights, reopening border trade points, and enhancing personnel exchanges.

Soon after, the Chinese Foreign Ministry also announced that from August 18 to 20, the member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, Foreign Minister, and special representative of China on the India-China boundary issue, Wang Yi, will be invited to visit India and hold the 24th meeting of the special representatives on the India-China boundary issue.

Reports by Bloomberg and other media stated that this will be the first visit to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister in over three years. This is both a follow-up to the visit by India's National Security Advisor Dovar last December and part of the preparations for Modi's visit to China at the end of this month. This visit is seen as an important step for the two countries to maintain diplomatic contact.

The report mentioned that these two Asian neighbors had a conflict in 2020 due to border issues, and since then, their relations have been tense. Currently, both countries have been working to stabilize bilateral relations.

Recently, high-level interactions in defense, security, and foreign affairs between China and India have been frequent, indicating a space and momentum for the warming of bilateral relations: in July, India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Foreign Ministers' Meeting and visited China. This was his first visit to China since 2020; in June, India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh visited China successively...

At the same time, India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens, and China has also eased restrictions on urea exports to India.

Additionally, direct flights between China and India, which had been dormant for five years due to the pandemic, are expected to see a revival. Indian media reported that China and India may resume direct flights as early as September, and the Indian government has asked domestic airlines to be prepared to resume Chinese routes at any time.

However, evaluating these recent moves by New Delhi, Lin Minwang previously told Observers Network that what should be watched out for is that India is improving relations with China on a "temporary" basis to enhance its leverage against the U.S., thereby sending a signal to Washington that India "has not fallen into a geopolitical dilemma and still has choices."

Lin Minwang said that Modi has actually been quietly adjusting his one-sided policy toward the U.S. since last year, but how far he can go in improving relations with China, the SCO, and Russia remains to be seen.

For example, India is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and has joined the Quad (U.S.-Japan-India-Australia). Modi once told Nikkei Asia that India has never thought of binding itself to a single security alliance. According to an Indian official, the Quad summit planned to be held in India this year may face changes due to the deteriorating U.S.-India relations.

Another example is that India often plays an "alternative" role in the SCO. At the recent Qingdao SCO defense ministers' meeting, India's Defense Minister Singh refused to sign the joint statement and accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism, promoting India's victory. As a leader, Modi has missed key meetings such as the 2024 Astana Summit, and even demanded that English be designated as a working language, challenging the operating rules advocated by China and Russia.

Lin Minwang pointed out that for India at this stage, it is still part of playing a "balancing" diplomacy, using improved relations with China and more active participation in SCO activities to create leverage for resolving conflicts with the West.

But in the "Trump 2.0" era, the public generally believes that India's era of "balancing" diplomacy is coming to an end, and its diplomatic isolation will become more pronounced.

Last week, Jeffery Sachs, a professor of economics at Columbia University and former senior advisor to the United Nations, openly stated in an interview with Indian media that Trump's actions against India should serve as a warning to Indian officials. India should not let itself be used by the U.S. to counter China. Those who hope that the U.S. will suppress China and allow India to replace China are "unrealistic," he said.

As for whether the tariffs imposed by Trump on India will bring China and India closer, Sachs believes it is "highly likely."

"I think Trump is the biggest 'unifier' for other countries in the world. That's exactly it. I think Trump is the biggest 'friend' of the BRICS countries. He attacks Brazil, Russia, India, and China, uniting all leaders together," he said.

On August 14, Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, answered questions regarding Sino-India relations, stating that China and India are both developing countries and important members of the Global South. Being partners who achieve mutual success, realizing the "dragon and elephant dancing together," is the correct choice for both sides.

Lin Jian stated that China is willing to work with India to implement the important consensus of the two leaders, consistently enhance political trust, expand exchanges and cooperation in a mutually beneficial direction, properly handle differences from a broader perspective, strengthen coordination and cooperation in multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and promote the healthy and stable development of Sino-India relations.

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