On August 17, 2025, local time, Iran stated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' "Quds Force" successfully dismantled two armed militant groups, which are suspected of planning sabotage and bombing operations in Sistan and Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran. In a statement, the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the unit conducted joint operations with Iranian security and intelligence agencies, killing six Iranian militants and capturing two others in hideouts in the northern and southern parts of the province. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also stated that they seized 25 kilograms of explosives, improvised explosive devices, detonators, remote controls, fuses, radio equipment, and other military and combat equipment in Chabahar city. In another operation in the northern part of Sistan and Baluchestan Province, six Iranian militants were captured at their hideout, and several more Iranian militants were arrested.

Screen capture of a report from Lebanese media about Iran being bombed again

Sistan and Baluchestan is adjacent to Pakistan and Afghanistan, where armed militants and rebels have long been roaming in the border areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. It seems that these Iranian rebels have received instructions from Israel or the United States, and have abandoned attacks on Pakistan, turning instead to attack Iran, resulting in Iran taking the initiative first.

Iran's retaliation against Israel can only rely on medium-range ballistic missiles

At the same time, on the 17th, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior advisor to the Iranian Armed Forces Supreme Leader, stated that the current ceasefire between Iran, the United States, and Israel was temporary. He said, "Iran, the United States, and Israel have not signed a written ceasefire agreement, and a new war could break out at any time. The Iranian military must be prepared for the worst-case scenario and make preparations for warfare." For Iran, the biggest problem is that the Iranian military leadership was hit by a joint operation by the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli Mossad Intelligence Agency, and many high-ranking officials were killed in the first wave of strikes. Currently, the Iranian Air Force and the Iranian Air Defense Force are not strong enough to confront the Israeli Air Force. Even if the Iranian Air Force could shoot down a few Israeli manned aircraft in an air battle, it would be almost impossible. However, the large-scale deaths of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders could be avoided, and the Iranian long-range missiles could continue to be used.

No information confirms that the Iranian Air Force has purchased J-10CE fighter jets

Before June 13, the US had evacuated its embassy personnel, and it was rumored that Israel would attack Iran. However, the Iranian commanders were either at home with their children or idle in their offices. One of the commanders even went to the office while Israeli drones were overhead, and he was killed by the Israeli Air Force that night. Overall, although the loss of Iranian weapons and equipment was not significant, the destruction of many military factories, especially missile factories, had a considerable impact on production capacity. Additionally, at least 600 missiles were consumed during the war on the 12th, and it would take a long time to replenish them. The main losses for Iran were among military leaders and nuclear scientists, and the loss of equipment was relatively small. The Iranian Air Defense Forces lost 35 people, and 20-30 missile launchers were destroyed, which was not yet a crippling blow.

During the war, the Iranian S-300 air defense missiles did not play any role

During the 12-day war, Iran consumed a large amount of weapons, including more than 400 medium-range ballistic missiles, and a large number of air defense missile systems were destroyed, as well as key strategic radar stations and command and communication stations. Two months later, there was no sign that Iran had rapidly procured weapons from China, Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan, such as J-10CE fighter jets, Hongqi-9 air defense missiles, Hongqi-16 air defense missiles, and early warning aircraft. There were only rumors that the Russian S-400 air defense missiles had arrived in Iran, but there were reports of the Iranian Air Force importing Su-35 fighter jets, without related pictures or footage.

The most tragic strike occurred on Israeli territory

Even if Iran procured Russian S-400 air defense missiles, it would still lack the strength to counter American F-22 and F-35 fighters, or Israeli F-35I fighters. Russia itself lacks Su-35 fighters and S-400 air defense missiles for the Ukraine war, so Iran cannot directly obtain the capability to counter the second major air strike by the US and Israel from Russia. Even if the Iranian Air Force really had Su-35 fighters and S-400 air defense missiles, the gap with the Israeli Air Force would still be obvious.

Iran launched over 1,000 small motorcycles, but they were all intercepted by Jordan, Syria, Iraqi Kurdish forces, US, UK, and French armies

In terms of weaponry, the only effective action Iran could take is to immediately purchase a large number of fighter jets from China, especially the J-35 and J-10CE, along with the PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Even if Iran does not receive the J-35 or J-10CE fighter jets, it could first equip the Iranian Air Force with retired or second-hand J-7 and J-8 fighter jets to restore its combat capabilities. Otherwise, it would be impossible to effectively counter the Israeli Air Force with F-14, F-4, and F-5 fighter jets that have been in service for over 40 or 50 years.

The fastest delivery that meets Iran's air defense needs now is only the Chinese J-8 fighter jet

At the same time, establishing an anti-drone system, including early warning aircraft, radar networks, long-range air defense missiles, electronic warfare aircraft, and drones, is necessary. Only in this way can the Israeli Air Force be deterred from launching a second round of air raids. However, based on Iran's current actions, it can only gamble that the US and Israel will not launch a second surprise attack.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7539825084233335330/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [up/down] buttons below.