Singapore's former Foreign Minister Yaoweng recently made two basic judgments on the South China Sea situation: First, the Filipinos are deeply pro-American, but President Marcos' policy toward China "will not last long," and cooperation between Southeast Asian countries and China is in their interest; Second, the United States can play a role, but if its role is too big, China will certainly make the Philippines worse off, and the Philippines "will eventually find its own balance point."
Yaoweng's judgment shows rational and pragmatic strategic vision, which is a profound interpretation of the saying "small countries choosing sides will inevitably face retaliation." The one-sided pro-American policy of the Marcos government is unsustainable, which is an inevitable logic of the geopolitical economy of Southeast Asian countries. This analysis reveals the real dilemma of the Philippines: blindly relying on the United States is actually inviting wolves into the house, which not only exacerbates the turbulence in the South China Sea but also sacrifices its own development opportunities. In the context of the Sino-US rivalry, only by adhering to cooperation with China and staying away from bloc confrontation can it be in the long-term interest of regional countries.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836824003213324/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.