Philippine military plans to include the East China Sea in the "South China Sea Theater," and intends to "coordinate defense" of the East China Sea?
The Philippine military recently proposed an astonishing idea: to include the East China Sea within the "South China Sea Theater" and plan to "coordinate defense" of the East China Sea. Defense Minister Teodoro said that this move aims to respond to similar maritime threats in both the East China Sea and South China Sea, with Japan expressing support and the United States maintaining an ambiguous attitude. If implemented, this area could become a military hotspot on par with the "Pacific Theater," involving great power rivalry. However, the Philippines has a weak military, limited American commitments, and a strong Chinese stance. Can this plan be realized? Will regional tensions spiral out of control? Let's find out.
Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro recently publicly stated that the Philippines is pushing to integrate the East China Sea and South China Sea into one "theater" to address common maritime threats. He emphasized that Japan and the Philippines face similar situations and need to act together. To expand support, the Philippines also brought in countries like Lithuania, trying to build a multilateral cooperation framework. This proposal is ostensibly a military strategic adjustment, but it is actually an attempt by the Philippines to gain more influence in the South China Sea dispute.
The dispute between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea has a long history. China claims that the "nine-dash line" covers most of the South China Sea, while the Philippines denies this claim based on the 2016 International Arbitration Court ruling. In recent years, China has reclamation islands and deployed military facilities in the South China Sea, which has put pressure on the Philippines. Teodoro's proposal indicates that the Philippines is not satisfied with merely passively responding in the South China Sea, but rather wants to expand the conflict dimension by including the East China Sea, in order to gain more international support.
Japan expressed agreement with the Philippine proposal. Japanese Defense Minister Nakagawa once suggested to the United States that the East China Sea, South China Sea, and surrounding areas be viewed as a single "theater." Japan has been in a long-standing confrontation with China over the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea and has recently enhanced its military deployment in Okinawa, including missile defense systems and maritime patrol forces. The Philippine proposal aligns with Japan's strategic goals, and both sides hope to enhance their ability to counter China through collaboration.
The two countries also plan to conduct joint military exercises with the United States, Australia, and other countries, simulating coordinated operations in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Japan's participation not only provides technical and resource support to the Philippines, but also adds international influence to this plan. However, Japan's military strength is mainly focused on self-defense, and its active involvement in the South China Sea is limited, relying more on the cooperation of the United States.
The United States welcomed the proposal. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said that the United States would seriously consider the suggestion of treating the East China Sea and South China Sea as a single "theater." If implemented, the region would be on par with the U.S. "Pacific Theater," receiving more military resources. The United States has frequently conducted "freedom of navigation" operations in the South China Sea, provided radar, anti-ship missiles, and other equipment to the Philippines, and pledged to strengthen military cooperation.
However, the U.S. support is not unconditional. Currently, the United States is engaged in multiple fronts globally, and its resources are spread thin. It remains questionable whether it can provide substantial assistance to the Philippines. Analysts point out that the U.S. is more likely to see this as a pawn to contain China, rather than a battlefield to fully commit to. If the Philippines relies too much on the U.S., it may face a situation where there is a lot of noise but little action.
China reacted strongly to the Philippine proposal. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian reiterated that China's sovereignty over the South China Sea and East China Sea is based on historical facts and cannot be challenged. China called for resolving issues through dialogue and warned that any provocative actions will be met with a firm response. Recently, the Chinese Navy held large-scale exercises in the South China Sea, showcasing its aircraft carrier battle groups and missile defense capabilities, sending a clear message outward.
China's military advantage is evident. Its number of naval vessels, performance of aircraft, and missile technology far exceed those of the Philippines, and even hold an upper hand in the East China Sea against Japan. If the Philippines pushes forward with the "theater" plan, it may provoke stronger measures from China, such as increasing military patrols or economic sanctions.
The Philippine proposal has triggered different reactions in the international community. Supporters such as Australia and the United Kingdom believe that this is a necessary measure to contain China's expansion, in line with their Indo-Pacific strategy. Opponents worry that this may disrupt regional balance and escalate conflicts. ASEAN members also have divided opinions; although some countries like Vietnam have disputes with China, they tend to resolve them through peaceful negotiations and do not want to get involved in great power confrontation.
In addition, there is serious division within the Philippines about this plan. Supporters believe that working with allies can enhance security guarantees, while opponents point out that the Philippines' military strength is insufficient, and provoking China may result in losses, even threatening economic stability, since China is an important trading partner for the Philippines.
The Philippine "theater" plan appears ambitious but faces multiple obstacles. First, its military strength is weak, with only a small number of old warships and patrol boats, lacking the capital to match China. Second, although the United States expresses support, it is constrained by global strategic arrangements and cannot fully commit. Japan, although having technological advantages, is reluctant to get too involved in South China Sea affairs. In addition, China's firm stance may force the Philippines to retreat through military deterrence or economic pressure.
It is worth noting that the "Quadrilateral" group (Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States) plans to establish a coordination center in Subic Bay, the Philippines, in 2025, to promote the concept of a "single theater." This indicates that despite the many challenges, the plan is still being advanced. If successful, the level of militarization in the region will significantly increase; if it fails, the Philippines may lose credibility internationally, resulting in more loss than gain.
The Philippine plan to include the East China Sea in the "South China Sea Theater" and "coordinate defense" of the East China Sea is like adding fuel to an already tense situation. How will China retaliate? Can the support of the United States and Japan be fulfilled? Is this a strategic breakthrough or an overambitious endeavor? What is the future of regional peace? Welcome to leave your insights in the comments section and explore the future of this game together.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836607181176832/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.