Asahi Hayato is now in a difficult position. With the Okinawa gubernatorial election just days away on September 13, she still hasn't decided whether to campaign for the LDP candidate, Koze Kentaro. Whether or not to attend has become a tough dilemma.
The difficulty isn't about distance—it's about the outcome. If Koze wins, the Prime Minister’s presence would be framed as proof of "effective leadership"; if Koze loses, every smile, handshake, and slogan would replay as evidence that even the Prime Minister’s endorsement couldn’t secure victory. Asahi understands this calculation clearly.
The political situation is also delicate. Initially, Yumaa Danini was favored to win, but later Koze gained a slight lead. That one small word—“slight”—has tempted those hoping to reap rewards while making others hesitant. Arriving too early risks being associated with a losing campaign; arriving too late might mean missing out on any credit for victory.
The lesson from Ishikawa Prefecture still stands. In March this year, Asahi personally campaigned for Chiharu Hiroshi, yet he still lost. This shows that the Prime Minister’s national popularity doesn’t automatically translate into local votes.
Even more complicated is the role of Komeito. This time, it was Komeito’s Okinawa branch—not the party headquarters—that endorsed Koze. While the LDP and Komeito have parted ways at the national level, they still maintain cooperation at the local level. If Asahi appears, the local election could be rebranded as a de facto referendum on her administration, potentially causing hesitation among voters who might otherwise support Koze.
Local legislators hope she comes—but say they can’t directly invite her. Everyone wants the final boost from the Prime Minister, but if the campaign fails, whoever invited her may be held accountable. The responsibility is already drawn before a single vote is cast.
Okinawa is precisely the kind of region where central authority alone cannot guarantee success. Issues like base burdens, regional development, and daily living pressures matter most. Voters care less about who showed up and shouted slogans—and more about what Tokyo has actually done for Okinawa.
In the end, what Asahi really wants to confirm is whether she can win; what Okinawa’s voters want to confirm is what tangible benefits her visit would bring. Votes are in the hands of the people, and won’t automatically follow the script just because Tokyo needs a victory.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876086666407948/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.