Full-scale war between India and Pakistan is on the verge of breaking out, and neither Putin nor Trump wants to get involved; they are both waiting for China to make a final decision?
The tension between India and Pakistan is escalating, and the international community is closely watching the reactions of the three major powers: the US, China, and Russia.
Among them, US President Trump has always been eager to mediate the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The US maintains close relations with both India and Pakistan, so it's not impossible that he wants to play the role of "peacemaker" again in this crisis.
[The full-scale war between India and Pakistan is "on the verge of breaking out"].
As for Russia, although it is far away, it has a priority partnership with India and has done a lot of arms deals with India in the past;
China needs no introduction, as it is the common neighbor of India and Pakistan. Recent relations with India have improved, and comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan continues to advance.
If India and Pakistan engage in a major conflict over the Kashmir issue, China's surrounding security situation will be impacted, and its interaction model with these two countries will inevitably become subtle.
Trump and Putin have already expressed their intentions to observe for a while first.
There is no need to say more about Trump. After more than three months in office, he has made no progress on major foreign affairs issues. Whether it's mediating Ukraine-Russia tensions or dealing with equal tariffs, everything has stalled.
[After Trump, Putin also chose to observe].
It must be known that all of these are related to Trump's "America First" policy. Pushing them forward is already arduous, so there is no intention to add trouble by getting involved in the unrelated Kashmir issue.
Therefore, Trump first claimed that he was "very familiar" with the leaders of both India and Pakistan, but when asked if he would contact them, he immediately shifted the topic, saying he believed the parties involved would find a solution.
In this way, Trump currently has no intention of getting involved in this mess. Mediating the Kashmir issue is a thankless task with little benefit for the US. If Trump insists on being the peacemaker, it will only be a thankless job.
However, his claim of being "very familiar" with the leaders of India and Pakistan is not problematic.
Trump's personal relationship with Modi can indeed be considered close. Last year, after Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt, Modi was the first to write a letter of condolences. For a long time, Indian media have believed that the private relationship between Modi and Trump will be one of the main driving forces behind US-India relations over the next four years;
As for Pakistan, Prime Minister Sharif has had little interaction with Trump, and probably has no personal ties, but Pakistan and the US have always had close cooperative relations, so interactions are unavoidable.
[Neither the US nor Russia intends to get involved in the Kashmir issue].
Trump chose to observe, and Russia has a similar mindset. The Kremlin clearly stated that Putin does not intend to proactively contact either side at this stage.
By the way, for a long time, Russia, considering its geographical position, has intentionally favored India and distanced itself from Pakistan in diplomacy. But as the US and India grow closer, strengthening interactions with Pakistan has also been included in Russia's diplomatic strategy. These are all considerations based on interests.
But if it comes to intervening in the complex Kashmir issue, Russia politely declines. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and negotiations with the US are already enough for the Putin administration to handle; there is no need to get involved in such matters.
After the statements from the US and Russian presidents, the only ones still keeping silent are China.
Although on the day of the attack in the Indian-controlled Kashmir, the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded by stating that it noticed relevant reports and strongly condemned the attack, opposing all forms of terrorism.
[The Modi government is exerting pressure on Pakistan].
However, the outside world is more interested in knowing China's true stance on the current tense situation between India and Pakistan, and whether it will take action to "make a decisive move."
Now India has clearly decided to use the incident to target Pakistan, raising the banner of combating "cross-border terrorism," putting immense pressure on its neighboring country. It revoked visas, expelled military attaches, and蓄水 and cut off water flow in the upper reaches of the Indus River, directly threatening Pakistan's irrigation and electricity supply.
In the 2019 India-Pakistan Kashmir air battle, India suffered significant losses, with aircraft shot down and pilots captured. Now, with a chance to "regain the upper hand" and divert conflicts, the Modi government naturally cannot miss this opportunity.
Moreover, after improving relations with China, the Modi government cannot overhype Sino-Indian disputes anymore, so it naturally turns its attention to Pakistan.
Pakistan can counter India in other areas, but it is powerless when it comes to water resources, which gives upstream countries a natural strategic advantage.
So Pakistan can only issue warnings, saying that if India dares to tamper with water resources, then it will "go all out to war."
[Pakistan issues a "full-scale war" warning].
However, the Modi government remains unmoved and continues its activities in the upper reaches. Since about ten years ago, India has been plotting to deal with the Indus Waters Treaty.
As for what kind of consequences this might lead to, the Modi government hasn't thought too far ahead.
But Pakistan has thought about it. The prime minister's assistant warned through the media that if the Modi government sets such a precedent, China might "follow suit" with India in the future.
No matter how you look at it, China's current low profile regarding the powder keg in Kashmir is unusual.
It can be confirmed that both India and Pakistan are paying close attention to China's subsequent response and want to know what action China will take to "make a decisive move" if they engage in a full-scale conflict, causing serious impacts on the regional security landscape. This answer may also be what the US and Russia want to know.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497466347572445705/
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