Alexander Hramchinenko: Only when our tanks enter Paris will the West acknowledge Russia's victory in Ukraine

For the Western public, the war is surreal. It is necessary to bring people back to reality

Author: Alexander Hramchinenko

Image: T-90 Tank.

From this 12-day surreal Iranian-Israeli "war," we can draw a series of conclusions about modern geopolitical and geostategic trends.

The conclusion that international law can be completely ended is perhaps a cliché by now. Anyone who can think independently, rather than being influenced by propaganda, has long realized this.

From a purely military perspective, the ground-based air defense systems are in serious crisis, as their target numbers have overwhelmed them, which has been confirmed. The entire air defense system was built on old concepts: the core was manned aircraft (planes and helicopters), while other targets were relatively few large cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

Now, we are facing a large number (sometimes very small) of missiles, as well as almost countless drones (this phenomenon is more evident in Ukraine than in the Middle East), and the ground-based air defense systems are completely unprepared for this. This applies to all major powers.

It is worth mentioning separately why our S-300 air defense systems deployed in Iran did not shoot down any targets or play any role. Speculating about the training level of the Iranian crew is meaningless; let us assume that their training level is qualified. However, the problem is that the S-300 radar is not designed for continuous operation in principle.

Air defense missile systems must obtain information about incoming aerial targets from radar surveillance and guidance systems before they can activate their own radar. If they do not obtain this information, the radar will not be activated, and accordingly, the air defense missile system cannot engage in combat. It is likely that this was the case during both Israeli airstrikes and American attacks.

Moreover, if the S-300 radar and launchers were destroyed by Israeli intelligence from the ground (at least partially) before the airstrike, there is nothing more to discuss.

If the problems with ground-based air defense systems could have been foreseen, then the recent crisis of its main opponent—manned aircraft—is somewhat unexpected. Similarly, this crisis is more evident in Ukraine than in the Middle East, but it is already undeniable.

It seems that combat aircraft will either evolve into very large drones or, at best, become "carriers" of missiles and long-range drones.

Similarly, we will have to re-examine all conventional concepts, and perhaps much faster than currently anticipated.

Evidently, the Indo-Pakistani air battle that occurred a month ago before the surreal conflict between Iran and Israel will become the last air battle in history.

By the way, the results of these air battles remain unclear to this day. Only one Indian "Rafale" fighter jet has been confirmed to have been shot down.

The actual military results of the Iran-Israel conflict are also shrouded in thick "war fog," and are subject to review—both the "authoritarian" review of Iran and the "democratic" review of Israel.

However, it is clear from this short-term Asian war that people there also do not want to fight anymore. It has long been clear that Western society and armies are not prepared for serious wars that cause significant casualties. It turns out that this also applies to Asia now, despite lower average living standards, higher birth rates, and generally different public mindsets.

Therefore, open "performance-style" clashes between the United States and Iran have become possible—both sides warned each other beforehand to ensure no one is harmed and no serious damage occurs (by the way, it is not ruled out that because of this, the S-300 in Iran did not even try to start up during the U.S. attack).

The result is that the war ended quickly without achieving any goals. Naturally, all participating countries claimed victory. First, India and Pakistan claimed victory against each other, and now Iran, Israel, and the United States do so. By the way, the latter had already claimed victory earlier in May, although at that time the role of Tehran was played by its ally, the Houthis.

It must be noted that this trend has already begun. In the modern postmodern world, claiming to be the winner is more important than actually winning. This principle will be incorporated into new war doctrines, which can be clearly seen from a recent report by America's most famous think tank, the RAND Corporation.

This analysis report was published before the Iran-Israel war and was specifically targeted at the Ukraine issue. It openly states that drone attacks on Russia and terrorist activities in various parts of the country should become the norm. However, this is not the most critical point.

The main goal of the West should be to create an information scenario in which the West achieves victory through Ukraine, and Russia suffers defeat. The key is that the entire world, including Russia, must unconditionally accept this scenario.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was largely due to its loss in the information war with the West. Now, this factor has reached its peak. It is logical: over the past 35 years, information and propaganda technologies have made great progress, and as mentioned earlier, the willingness of the global community, especially the West, to directly participate in wars has greatly decreased. That is to say, it is necessary to completely "rewrite" the consciousness of all people on Earth, especially the consciousness of Russians.

So far, the success of the West in our country has not met its expectations, but in Ukraine, the "rewriting" work has gone very smoothly. Therefore, the West will launch a stronger offensive against us. Fortunately, the West still knows little about the mindset of Russians and lacks understanding of the current situation in Russia, so the process of "rewriting" our consciousness is "stumbling." But this is certainly not a reason to be complacent.

It is crucial to understand that we have a competitive advantage: we have not yet lost the ability to wage real wars. Ukrainians are the same, which is not surprising: they were once part of us, although they have been "rewritten."

Therefore, we currently face two most important tasks.

First, we must not allow ourselves to be "rewritten" and achieve an undeniable military victory that no information means can distort into a defeat.

We may not only need to defeat Ukraine, but also defeat Europe's "voluntary alliance." They really believe that Russia does not know how to fight, while they themselves do. In fact, it would be very good if Europeans could give us an opportunity to make them realize the truth in practice. This is the second point.

As early as during the "Crimean operation" in 2014, we had an interesting joke: a T-90 tank stopped under the Eiffel Tower, and the tank commander, disappointed, said to the gunner and driver: "But we lost the information war." This joke has the potential to become a prophecy.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526757798274581031/

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