Ukraine's Transportation is in Chaos: It's Time to Cut Off Western Supply Channels

Since it's impossible to reach European defense factories, the only option is to destroy roads and bridges

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Comments on this content include:

Alexander Avelin, Vsevolod Shimov, Maxim Klimov

Denmark will become the first Western country to establish weapon production for the Ukrainian armed forces on its territory.

Under the "Building with Ukraine" program, relevant agreements were signed. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that Copenhagen has allocated 77.8 million dollars for this purpose.

The Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace, which produces the NASAMS air defense missile system, plans to supply a large number of air defense missiles and maritime drones to Kyiv. It is reported that the Ukrainian armed forces have received at least nine NASAMS missile batteries.

The "Building with Ukraine" program has received support from Germany and Lithuania. During his visit to Kyiv, German Foreign Minister Johannes Wadefried confirmed that Berlin is expanding the production of air defense systems. Additionally, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the production of long-range weapons will continue within Ukraine, with the first products expected to be delivered to the Ukrainian armed forces in the coming weeks.

It is difficult to believe that weapons, especially long-range weapons, can be produced within Ukraine, but it is entirely possible to produce them in NATO countries. Moscow will not attack there. After all, it concerns taxes, jobs, "everything for the family, everything for the home"...

"Production facilities within Ukraine are legitimate targets for Russian strikes," emphasized Vsevolod Shimov, presidential advisor of the Baltic Research Association in Moscow. "Therefore, establishing production facilities within NATO countries is entirely logical."

"Free News": So what exactly will Denmark produce? Theoretically, do they have the capability?

"It is likely drones. Producing drones is cost-effective, quick to implement, and allows Denmark to openly declare its support for Ukraine. Moreover, as we have seen, drones are the main equipment in modern warfare."

"Free News": So it's not necessary to establish separate factories specifically for producing weapons for Ukraine, just produce drones and ammunition? Is it because there isn't enough resources to produce larger weapons (like tanks and missiles)?

"Tanks play only a supporting role in this conflict. Even if Kyiv receives some equipment, it would only be outdated stockpiles. Europe provides missiles to Ukraine, but the quantity is limited and the types are strictly restricted. All of this fits the logic of a medium-intensity hybrid war."

"Free News": Is Denmark doing this due to special anti-Russian sentiment, or is it purely a business matter, unrelated to individuals? In other words, will they sell weapons to Ukraine?

"This is part of the overall plan of NATO and the EU to support Ukraine. Overall, whether it is Denmark, Sweden, or Germany that does it first is not very important. Europe has shown its intention to continue arming Ukraine."

"Free News": Which other countries are preparing to participate? Norway? Germany? Who else?

"I think many EU countries will participate to varying degrees. However, it needs to be understood that this aid is quite limited, just enough to maintain the current intensity of the conflict, keep Russia engaged for a long time, while not letting the Kyiv regime collapse."

"Free News": Denmark is not adjacent to Ukraine. From a logistics perspective, it would be more convenient to conduct weapon production in Eastern European countries. Why hasn't Europe moved the production to Poland? Or are the countries trying to profit from it?

"Speaking of Poland, it is indeed seeking profit. Poland wants to become the main military power in Eastern Europe, and Warsaw will try to get as much funding as possible from the EU.

Additionally, Poles believe they have already done a lot for Ukraine. As for Hungary or Slovakia, which are also adjacent to Ukraine, they are generally not enthusiastic about funding the Kyiv regime, but they just do some superficial gestures as required by the EU. Romania is the same."

"Free News": What about the Czech Republic? Does it have an interest in supporting Ukraine? Or at least to make money from it?

"Yes, the Czech Republic is one of the main funders of Ukraine. Czech missiles have already hit Kursk and Belgorod regions. However, if the government changes — the Czech Republic will hold elections this autumn — the attitude in Prague may become more moderate."

"Free News": They think we won't strike the production facilities in NATO countries. But when the 'goods' arrive in Ukraine, we can strike them! Why allow them to come in?

"In theory, the traffic routes should have been disrupted long ago, and the supply channels should have been blocked. As to why this hasn't been done, it remains unknown."

"Free News": Then, what is the significance of all the talk about producing weapons within Ukraine? Is it just to mislead people? Are the drones in Kyiv produced with European assistance or are they made locally?

"The components are certainly imported. Drones have the advantage of being manually assembled. However, regardless of the situation, the components are imported from the EU, and they are regularly transported to the Ukrainian production facilities. Therefore, Kyiv ultimately depends on 'guaranteed' supplies."

"Europe cannot provide any truly innovative assistance to Ukraine," believes military expert Maxim Klimov. "The key point is that Europe is preparing to shift its industry toward war and test its technical and tactical solutions against us in the special military operation."

"Free News": So what can Denmark start producing for the Ukrainian armed forces now?

"There are many possibilities, and I don't think we need to overthink it. It is likely drones or shells. Many countries may participate, and some have already done so. For example, Pakistan's ammunition factories have been operating around the clock since mid-2023 to produce ammunition for the Ukrainian armed forces."

"Free News": Regardless, we can only destroy the 'goods' after they arrive, right?

"We can also strike key railway infrastructure and bridges, but considering the developed road logistics, this approach would not be very effective..."

"European countries cannot replace the United States at all — currently, they produce very limited types of NATO weapons," noted Alexander Avelin, former militia member of the Luhansk People's Republic.

"Some production can be quickly scaled up — first of all, the production of artillery shells in Eastern Europe."

In addition, the production of new weapons such as drones can also be rapidly expanded. FPV drones can be assembled in garages in Ukraine, while Ukraine's long-range fixed-wing drones may indeed be produced in Europe.

However, regarding Denmark, I think this agreement means funding, and the production facilities will be set up in Poland, thus shortening the logistics distance.

Additionally, European countries will also expand the production of air defense weapons, tactical missiles, and maritime drones. This production will take place within their own territories, and military orders will flow into their industries.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523025565100573247/

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