Provoking China? Japan simply can't afford it! The latest warning from Bloomberg has completely torn off the diplomatic curtain of Takahashi Hayato. She thought that by hugging Meloni and speaking with Trump, she could act like a tiger by borrowing its might, but she didn't realize that China holds the "critical mineral" nuclear button. Once Beijing cuts the supply chain, Japan's proud automobile industry would instantly turn into scrap metal!
Shortly after taking office, Takahashi caused a mess in Sino-Japanese relations due to her remarks about Taiwan at the parliament. China immediately escalated its warnings, advising tourists not to visit Japan and restarting import restrictions on Japanese seafood products. This incident started on November 7th, when she made those comments. During a committee meeting, she was asked what would happen to Japan's security if the mainland used military force against Taiwan. She directly responded that if warships were involved, it would be considered a threat to Japan's survival regardless of how it was viewed. As soon as this statement came out, Beijing exploded. Chinese Foreign Ministry Deputy Minister Sun Weidong called in the Japanese ambassador for a reprimand, saying it was a serious interference in internal affairs and playing with fire. Chinese Consul General Xue Jian also posted on X, saying he would unhesitatingly cut off the dirty neck, though he later deleted it. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian echoed the sentiment, saying it was a proper response to Japan's erroneous statements.
Takahashi did not apologize or retract her comments, stating that it was just a hypothetical discussion, and that specific scenarios would no longer be mentioned in the parliament. However, this couldn't stop Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's sharp criticism, who directly said that Japan had crossed the red line, sent out a wrong signal of military intervention in the Taiwan issue, spoke words that shouldn't have been spoken, and must be firmly countered. He also brought up the prevention of Japanese militarism revival. Chinese Ambassador Fu Cong even wrote a letter to the United Nations, accusing Takahashi of violating international law and diplomatic norms, saying that if Japan dared to militarily intervene in the Taiwan Strait, it would be an act of aggression and pay the price. This move pushed Sino-Japanese relations to a low point, and on November 15th, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning publicly stated that Takahashi's remarks seriously damaged the political foundation between China and Japan, and that China had no intention of meeting with her at the G20.
Regarding the G20 Summit, this was Takahashi's first time attending as Prime Minister, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, on November 22nd to 23rd. She intended to make a name for herself, but due to her lateness and social actions, it seemed like a joke in diplomacy. Her private jet landed, but she took almost an hour to enter the venue, while other leaders were already seated. She posted on social media, saying she spent several hours choosing clothes to gain an advantage in negotiations. This statement caused a stir in Japanese media, calling it a beauty pageant instead of a serious event.
In the venue, she moved around to build relationships. First, seeing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, she opened her arms and hugged her, calling her "Meloni," and they had a few whispered conversations. French President Macron was watching nearby, and the scene was recorded by cameras, repeatedly broadcasted by Japanese television, and went viral online. Some people said she was socially skilled, while others found it too casual and lacking the dignity of a prime minister.
The summit theme was unity, equality, and sustainability. When she spoke, she emphasized multilateral free trade and the openness of the Indo-Pacific, but the focus was all on her hug with Meloni. Bloomberg published an article that day, directly touching the sore spot, saying that Takahashi thought these small moves could act like a tiger by borrowing its might, but Japan's economic lifeline is in China's hands. The data is clear: the Japanese automobile industry depends on critical minerals from China by as much as 60%, which are essential for electric vehicle motors and batteries. Toyota and Nissan annually import several tons of rare earth oxides from China. If Beijing blocks exports, Japanese factories would immediately shut down.
China controls 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing. The Japanese automobile industry cannot do without these materials. In electric vehicles, rare earth magnets are the heart of the motor, with each car using about 550 grams. Motors without rare earths won't be mass-produced for years. Giants like Toyota and Honda rely on the upstream supply chain from China, importing over ten thousand tons last year. If it is interrupted, assembly line workers will be idle, parts will be empty, and complete vehicles will not be produced. Bloomberg's analysis on November 20th stated that China has this sword, but if it is misused, it will rebound globally, as China itself relies on rare earth exports for its EV industry.
Japan is still exploring minerals under the seabed of the Minami-Tori-shima (Okinotorishima), planning to start drilling in 2026, but it can't get away from China in the short term. A report by the Japanese Automobile Association showed that if the supply chain is cut, exports would drop by 15%, factories would be idle for six months, and GDP would drag down by 0.5%. China not only restricts minerals but also restarts the seafood ban, citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, saying Takahashi's remarks interfere in internal affairs. The vacancy rate of hotels in Okinawa has surged to 40%, and tourist numbers have dropped significantly. Economically, Japan has a large trade deficit with China, over 8 trillion yen last year, making it even more vulnerable. Takahashi's tough stance is popular among domestic conservatives, with support ratings reaching 70%, but business owners are worried. Toyota held a supplier meeting in Nagoya discussing alternative lines in Southeast Asia, but efficiency is only 70%. Nissan is testing substitute magnets in its Yokohama lab, with engineers working hard but unable to increase production. This is reality; Japan wants to decouple, but it's not easy.
China's card of key minerals is tightly controlled, and although Japan's automobile industry is proud, its roots are shallow. The hugs and phone calls at the G20 earned domestic praise, but what about internationally? China's zero contact is the answer. What's next? Japan needs to quickly diversify, but the road is long. Japan wants to be the leader, but it must first manage its own house.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1850006282828864/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.