[By Guancha Net columnist Liu Zongyi]
In the past dozen days, the conflict between India and Pakistan has been continuously escalating:
On April 22, a gun attack targeting tourists occurred in Pahalgam under Indian control, resulting in 26 deaths.
Subsequently, both India and Pakistan adopted tough measures: the Indian government accused a Pakistani-backed armed organization of being responsible for the incident and took a series of countermeasures including closing the India-Pakistan border ports, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty; the Pakistani government denied India's accusations and implemented corresponding countermeasures such as closing its airspace and suspending trade.
In the following days, mutual gunfire and artillery exchanges occurred between the two countries' troops along the control line and the border area.
On April 28, Modi convened a special security meeting to discuss military strike plans for the Pahalgam attack and subsequently announced giving the military "complete operational freedom" to decide the method, target, and timing of India's response.
According to recent media reports, the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region appears to be entering a state of preparation for war. Not only have over a thousand schools suspended classes, but the public has also been advised to stock up on food in advance.
The two countries' troops are sharpening their weapons, and war seems imminent.
Far view of an Indian military post from Nilam Valley in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Photo by CCTV News.
Analysis of the Causes of the Current India-Pakistan Conflict
Based on my understanding and analysis, this conflict is most likely a violent response from local resistance forces in Kashmir against Modi's government policies in Kashmir. This attack highlights the complexity of the historical, religious, and political situation in the Kashmir region.
Kashmir has always been the focus of contradictions and conflicts between India and Pakistan. The Modi government abolished Article 370 of the Constitution and Article 35A in 2019, revoked the "special status" of Jammu and Kashmir, divided the state into two union territories, stationed heavy troops there, imposed high-pressure rule on the local population, and allowed Hindu migrants from other states to settle and purchase land and property, which has exacerbated religious conflicts and separatist sentiments locally. These emotions were exploited by the attackers.
From the details reported by Indian and Western media, it can be seen that the attackers specifically targeted male Hindus, indicating clear intent behind their actions. After the attack, an armed organization calling itself the "Kashmir Resistance Movement" claimed responsibility, and its statement explicitly mentioned opposition to the "outsider settlement policy" promoted by the Indian government, which led to changes in the demographic structure.
Blaming Pakistan right away is obviously the Modi government's attempt to cover up its governance failures.
In the past few years, the Modi government and Indian media have hyped up the success of its Kashmir policies. The occurrence of this attack indicates that its radical Hindu nationalist policies have instead provoked more brutal killings. To deflect responsibility and calm domestic anger, while countering criticism from opposition figures like Rahul Gandhi, the Modi government again turned its矛head towards Pakistan, accusing it of supporting the attack.
In fact, India has consistently blamed Pakistan for similar attacks within its territory. Both India and Pakistan have a tradition of supporting separatist forces and terrorist organizations in each other's territories to carry out armed sabotage and attacks.
However, given that the Pakistani government has been actively taking action to improve relations with India in recent years, it is unlikely that Pakistan actively planned and supported this attack.
Ambulance carrying the bodies of victims escorted by Indian police leaving the scene of the incident. Photo by AP.
It is worth noting that India's use of "cutting off water" as a weapon has escalated strategic deterrence and caused a strong reaction from Pakistan.
In this instance, one significant difference in India's response was its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank. This move aimed to threaten Pakistan's food security and social stability, indicating that South Asian security games have broken through traditional military confrontation frameworks and entered a new stage of "water-food-energy" composite deterrence.
Although the amount of river flow that India can completely control may not be large, cutting off water could cause severe psychological panic among the Pakistani public. This move was called "water terrorism" by Pakistan, breaking historical boundaries, violating international law and treaties, and going against international morality. Since the Indus River is the lifeline of Pakistan, the Pakistani side claims that cutting off water might force them to take military action.
India aims to pressure through non-military means to shape Modi's image as a "strongman," and may also hope to achieve its long-sought goal of revising the Indus Waters Treaty. However, speaking frankly, this last-ditch effort by India also shows that it lacks effective means to deal with this attack incident.
Strategic Considerations and Bottom Lines of All Parties
The current conflict between India and Pakistan regarding the Pahalgam attack occurs against the backdrop of Trump's global tariff war and the collapse of the international order. It not only directly affects the interests of India, Pakistan, and other South Asian countries but also involves major global powers such as China, the United States, Russia, and France, as well as Middle Eastern countries like Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
If this event cannot be peacefully resolved, it will have a profound impact on the global order. India's actions, especially its behavior of "cutting off water," will set a bad precedent in the international community.
Let us first discuss the strategic considerations and bottom lines of India and Pakistan.
Firstly, for India, the Modi government hopes to display its tough stance on counter-terrorism domestically, quell public anger, suppress the opposition, deflect responsibility for policy failures, and smear Pakistan internationally. By using the "cutting off water" method, the Modi government hopes to seize this opportunity to revise the Indus Water Treaty or even gain direct control over the Indus River water through reckless means.
India might hope to launch what it calls a "surgical strike" against Pakistan, similar to those in 2016 and 2019, to calm domestic public sentiment; however, given that about 70% of Pakistan's weaponry has achieved Chinese modernization and Indian equipment is showing a technological gap compared to Pakistan, there is no guarantee of victory.
Moreover, at present, Modi's main task seems to be to seize the so-called "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" presented by Trump's tariff war against China to develop itself rather than to resolve issues with Pakistan.
In the past decade, the Modi government believed that its policy of "removing the hyphen between India and Pakistan" in the international community was successful. Although some Indian politicians openly stated their desire to "dissect" Pakistan, such a scenario would involve a great possibility of nuclear conflict. Therefore, India may not actually have the intention to launch a large-scale war to dismember Pakistan.
On April 28, Modi announced giving the military "complete operational freedom," which is very similar to his statement during the Galwan conflict in 2020. This is actually a way to shirk responsibility. At that time, Modi delegated the authority to start a war to former Indian Army Chief Naravane, who wrote in his memoirs that he learned afterward that if a war had broken out, the Indian army might have suffered heavy losses because the strongest armored brigade of the Chinese People's Liberation Army had already been deployed to the border, but the Indian army did not discover this. Fortunately, he made the choice for peace at the critical moment.
For Pakistan, in this current conflict, its reaction is entirely passive.
Pakistan currently faces domestic political, economic, security, and social instability and does not want to get involved in a war. However, faced with India's unreasonable accusations, India's military pressure, and the threat of "cutting off water," Pakistan can only retaliate and strive to survive at all costs.
Its best option is to resolve the current crisis through diplomatic channels, with the assistance of international organizations, including resolving the issue of Indus River water through peaceful means. If India really intends to launch a military operation against Pakistan, although the overall national strength of Pakistan is far inferior to India, Pakistan will actively seek support from China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, striving to ensure a military victory when facing India's provocations. If India delays resolving the issue of Indus River water, affecting Pakistan's agricultural production and social stability, Pakistan may be forced to launch a military strike against dams within India's territory.
On April 24, 2025, Hyderabad, Pakistan, the dry bed of the Indus River near Kutri Dam shows signs of future water scarcity. Photo by Visual China.
Other South Asian countries such as Bangladesh do not want to see India and Pakistan engage in armed conflict and do not want India to threaten downstream countries with water issues. Bangladesh has a deep-seated pain regarding such issues. These South Asian countries hope to ease tensions between India and Pakistan through major power coordination and international organizations.
Now let us talk about the interests and strategic considerations of the United States, Russia, France, and Middle Eastern countries such as Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
For the United States, although Trump and Vance publicly expressed support for India's fight against terrorism without blaming Pakistan, they do not support India cutting off water to Pakistan or initiating armed strikes. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio hopes to mediate.
Given that Trump, Vance, and Rubio hope to use India to contain China, the U.S. does not want India to get involved in a war with Pakistan. Even though Pakistan's GDP is only one-tenth of India's, Pakistan's military equipment level and combat capability are not inferior to India's, and India is likely to suffer losses in military conflicts, which could affect the U.S.'s attempt to contain China.
Russia, despite its close relationship with India, has rapidly improved ties with Pakistan in recent years. Given that Ukraine remains unresolved for Russia, it does not wish for India and Pakistan to fall into conflict, which could affect regional stability and the development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia certainly does not want to see a conflict between India, which uses Russian-made weapons, and Pakistan, which uses Chinese-made weapons, exposing the backwardness of Russian-made weapon systems.
Turkey has shown particularly active support for Pakistan after this incident. It hopes to demonstrate its close ties with other Islamic countries, especially its leadership position within the Islamic world. Additionally, it wants to explore its arms market.
Israel, on the other hand, hopes to weaken support for Palestinian people from Muslim countries including Pakistan by supporting India's strike against Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim country, thereby undermining the morale of the Islamic world.
Both France and Israel are concerned that their sold weapons could fail against Chinese-made weapons in conflicts.
In general, the international community does not support another war between India and Pakistan. No country, including the United States, Russia, and the Global South, can understand India's expressed position to take military action against Pakistan. Therefore, the Modi government is actually in a very awkward situation: the international community does not support its war rhetoric, Hindu nationalist sentiment remains high domestically, but it may not necessarily win if a real war breaks out.
Indian Prime Minister Modi. Photo by PTI.
China's Position
China always hopes for peace and stability in its surrounding regions and does not want to see war or chaos in its vicinity, especially in the face of Trump's tariff war and the gradual improvement of Sino-Indian relations. China does not want armed conflicts between India and Pakistan to occur.
China is working to mediate and promote dialogue to resolve the disputes between India and Pakistan. This requires joint efforts with other countries to actively push for the United Nations, the SCO, and the World Bank to intervene and conduct a fair third-party investigation into the Pahalgam incident. From the fact that India has so far not wanted other countries and the UN to intervene in the investigation of the Pahalgam incident, it can be seen that India does not have conclusive evidence proving that the incident was supported by Pakistan.
India's "cutting off water" behavior violates humanitarian principles. China and the international community should require all parties to abide by international law and treaties—not only the Indus Waters Treaty but also all resolutions and treaties passed by the UN involving the dispute over the Kashmir region.
It must be clearly stated that China has never wanted wars or chaos around it and cannot allow any harm to its overseas interests, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and projects in Pakistan and Chinese nationals in Pakistan. It cannot allow external forces to support Balochi terrorists and the TTP in Pakistan to launch attacks on China's overseas interests. On these issues, China needs to take a clear stand.
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