The theme of this week's news commentary is: What are the specific details of the talks between Hamas and Israel-Egypt? Why has the plan for the release of hostages and prisoner exchanges not been advanced? The Hamas and Israeli delegations will hold indirect negotiations on Monday in Egypt, based on the Gaza peace plan proposed by U.S. President Trump. The purpose of these talks is to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza and to end the war that has lasted two years and caused the death of tens of thousands of people. To pressure the negotiators, Trump urged all parties to "move quickly" and sent his special envoy Wittkow and son-in-law Kushner to Egypt to mediate.

Since October 7, 2023, the war has resulted in 67,139 deaths and 169,583 injuries. AFP - EYAD BABA

Let us first revisit the peace plan announced by Trump on September 29. The core elements of this plan include a ceasefire, the release of 47 hostages held since the October 7 attacks within 72 hours, a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the disarmament of Hamas. Trump expressed hope that the first stage, the release of the hostages, would be completed this week and warned Hamas against "delaying." Hamas, on the other hand, said on Sunday that it was willing to "immediately initiate" the process of exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

This meeting is referred to as a "technical" meeting by both sides. At first glance, both sides consider this negotiation an established fact, which may last at most two days, as Trump wished, and all parties have agreed to release the hostages held by Hamas, as required by the U.S. president. However, Hamas delegation head Al-Hayya, who arrived in Egypt on October 5, stated that these talks first need to address major differences between the two sides. Al-Hayya wants the immediate exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but he proposed that the negotiations should proceed sequentially, first addressing the "ceasefire mechanism," then discussing the "withdrawal of Israeli forces," and finally the "prisoner exchange." However, the timetable for the withdrawal obviously cannot be determined within two days. Additionally, it is worth noting that this is the first time Al-Hayya has appeared publicly since the Israeli air strike on Doha on September 9, which aimed to assassinate him and his colleague, resulting in the death of his son.

On the Israeli side, Netanyahu has replaced his usual chief negotiator, Mossad director Barnea, who had openly opposed the air strike on Doha. In his place is Netanyahu's closest aide, American-Israeli Delmer, who will be responsible for the negotiations.

Over the weekend, Trump strongly opposed the skeptical attitude of Israel towards Hamas's initial response, instead supporting Hamas's response. Subsequently, he posted a map of the Gaza Strip on his social media platform and demanded that Hamas accept the first withdrawal route of Israeli forces. This so-called "yellow line" means that Israeli forces can continue to control half of the land in the Gaza Strip and the border with Egypt, but must give up control over the Netzarim corridor. The Netzarim corridor is a narrow strip that separates Gaza City from southern Gaza. Losing this corridor would hinder the connection between Gaza City and the southern region.

In summary, Trump has set up a plan where Israel partially withdraws but still controls important areas. He demands that Hamas accept this compromise, under the condition that Israel weakens its control over certain strategic corridors.

What are Hamas's demands and other negotiation obstacles? Currently, Hamas insists on the final requirement that Israel completely withdraws. The Hamas negotiating representatives hope to obtain a clear timeline for the withdrawal and a commitment from Israel not to renege. Moreover, Hamas also says that completing the full release of hostages within 72 hours will be very difficult. On the Israeli side, they emphasize that there should be no military or public demonstrations during the hostage exchange, and it must be mediated through the Red Cross, which is different from previous situations. Furthermore, regarding the 250 "high-risk" Palestinian prisoners that Israel has promised to release, Hamas hopes that some influential leaders are included. Without international pressure, Israel would refuse to release Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader imprisoned since 2002, who is a symbol of Palestinian unity and is believed to be able to revitalize the national movement. Therefore, the so-called hostage exchange is not as simple as it seems on the surface, as it involves various conditions.

Additionally, it is worth noting that Netanyahu's changing attitude is related to his current awkward situation. On one hand, he must respond to the huge pressure from U.S. President Trump to vigorously promote the Gaza peace plan. On the other hand, he must deal with the hardline stance of his right-wing allies in Israel.

Netanyahu's shifting position is not unfamiliar. For example, on September 29, he was thanking Trump for the Middle East peace plan in English at the White House, but several hours later, when facing domestic voters, he tried to downplay his commitment in Hebrew. Trump saw everything and often seemed to lose patience. After Hamas expressed "conditional acceptance" of the peace plan on October 3, the emotional U.S. president expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu's back-and-forth and bluntly said, "I don't understand why you're always so negative. It's a victory, accept it!"

For example, on Saturday, October 4, Netanyahu suddenly showed extreme optimism in a video he released, claiming that the obstacles to the release of hostages had been removed, a sudden change that even surprised his closest supporters. However, on Sunday, October 5, he became cautious, saying in an interview: "Of course, I can't tell you whether Hamas will accept it. I think it's possible, I hope it will happen, but I can't guarantee it will. If the talks fail, President Trump has said he will fully support Israel's strong action against Hamas."

Netanyahu has served as Prime Minister of Israel for a total of 18 years since 1996, making him a veteran in Israeli politics. However, the current difficult situation has forced him to waver. Especially now, Netanyahu relies more than ever on U.S. political, diplomatic, and military support. When Trump was interviewed by the same journalist, he even said directly, "He agreed. He must agree. He has no choice. You must agree with me here."

Domestically, facing the right-wing cabinet members and his core voters, Netanyahu emphasizes that the delegation sent to Egypt only bears a "technical task," focusing on the first phase of Trump's plan, which is the exchange of hostages and prisoners, as well as the "very limited" withdrawal of Israeli forces. This statement aims to indicate that there is still enough room for maneuver in subsequent stages, thus avoiding cabinet members resigning due to "compromises." However, the anti-war camp warns that the obstacles facing these negotiations will become increasingly complex, especially regarding the demilitarization of Hamas and the future governance of Gaza. Now, if Hamas indeed releases all the hostages, it equals giving up the last bargaining chip. Then the key issue becomes whether the United States can pressure Netanyahu to fulfill his promise, but this is undoubtedly a significant challenge.

Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the various conditions hidden in the hostage and prisoner exchange plan, Netanyahu's repeated changes in attitude, and the game of multiple political forces have led to the fact that although the Gaza peace plan looks clear on paper, it faces numerous obstacles in practical implementation, even in the first stage of the hostage plan.

Sources: rfi

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558274610987287066/

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