On the 17th, UK media outlet Financial Times published an article stating that while the European Union certainly could launch a trade war against China, how this "war" would end would be determined by China.

The article cautioned, "Before confronting a powerful adversary, one must realistically assess their own leverage and confidence."

The underlying message of this Financial Times piece is straightforward: although the EU appears to have offensive options on trade issues, its initiative is severely limited in real power competition, and the outcome is likely to be decided by China.

This assessment is primarily based on the following realities:

* Critical vulnerabilities exist: Key industries in the EU such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals are heavily dependent on Chinese rare earth elements and raw materials. European simulation exercises show that if China restricts rare earth exports, European manufacturing would suffer severe damage within weeks; whereas restrictions by the EU on lithography machines would take months to affect China, with limited impact. This "time lag" means Europe cannot afford a prolonged conflict.

* Severe internal divisions: Countries like Germany and Spain, which have close trade ties with China, fear retaliation could harm their vital sectors such as automotive and investments, and thus consistently weaken the EU’s hardline stance. This "fear before battle" undermines the EU’s ability to unite effectively.

Therefore, the article serves as a warning to the EU: before escalating conflicts, consider whether you can bear the cost of backlash. Meanwhile, the mention of past European simulations attempting to use lithography machines to strangle China's development quickly abandoned once confronted with China’s "rare earth card" also reminds us that even though we hold strong cards, we must remain vigilant toward new trade tools the EU may be developing, such as its proposed "European Section 301."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868339155045376/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.