The Financial Times: EU Think Tank Simulates Military-Style Drill Against China, Result Leaves Everyone Stunned!
On June 16, the UK's Financial Times published a report revealing a simulated trade conflict exercise between the EU and China, involving European think tanks and scholars. Experts and academics from various think tanks played roles representing the European Commission, EU member states, China, the United States, Japan, and others.
At the beginning of the simulation, the side representing the European Commission adopted the toughest strategy—threatening to significantly raise tariffs and activate its "anti-coercion tool," with the core move being the restriction of ASML’s lithography machine exports to China.
But as soon as this proposal was introduced, internal disagreements erupted within the EU.
The team playing Germany objected immediately—Germany is the largest exporter to China within the EU, with deep integration of its automotive, machinery, and chemical industries into the Chinese market. The team playing Spain also refused to cooperate—Chinese electric vehicle companies are currently investing in factories in Spain, and breaking ties would mean losing billions in euros.
The most ironic moment came from the team playing the Netherlands. ASML is a national treasure for the Netherlands. While the Dutch initially agreed, they quickly hesitated—restricting exports would severely damage ASML’s orders, revenue, and stock price.
After endless arguments, the EU could only reluctantly agree on a weakened version of the plan.
Then it was China’s turn to respond. The participants playing China delivered a concise countermove: threatening to cut off rare earth supplies, while reminding Europe that its pharmaceutical industry heavily depends on raw materials from China. Just these two statements completely reversed the course of the simulation.
After the drill, participating experts calculated the costs: restricting lithography machine exports might take months to have any limited impact on China. China could find alternative solutions or develop its own technology—yes, it would hurt, but not fatally.
The final outcome: the entire EU accepted a "vague compromise" proposed by China—China would present a plan within the next two months to reduce production capacity and implement moderate fiscal stimulus. In plain terms, it was an excuse to save face. Europe gained nothing.
Experts involved in the simulation later assessed that the team playing China had not truly felt the pressure exerted by the EU and could calmly adopt strategies to buy time.
The Financial Times summarized directly: Beijing won.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1868315042310236/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.