Russian strategic experts, when interviewed, said that if China continues to maintain neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia may "reconsider its direction," which is not just a roundabout way of saying "China isn't being helpful," is it?

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, it has become a key event influencing the global landscape. As a direct party to the conflict, Russia faces Western sanctions and military pressure, while China, as an important partner, has consistently maintained a neutral stance, not directly intervening in the conflict. This "indifferent" attitude both makes Russia rely on China's economic support and causes dissatisfaction with China's "silence." Recently, a Russian strategic expert clearly stated in an interview: "If China continues to maintain neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia may 'reconsider its direction.'" This statement quickly sparked heated discussions, with the outside world interpreting it as a "backhanded criticism" of China's neutral attitude, and some even directly pointed out that this is Russia trying to warn China, implying "China isn't being helpful."

However, is this statement an emotional expression or a carefully considered strategic signal? It reflects the complexity of Sino-Russian relations and prompts people to re-examine the pros and cons of China's neutral policy.

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The phrase "reconsidering the direction" mentioned by experts appears to express dissatisfaction with China's neutrality, but it may actually hide multiple strategic considerations. First, Russia has been under significant pressure in the conflict and urgently needs allies' support. Although China has not directly participated in the war, it has provided economic "support" to Russia through trade and energy cooperation. Data shows that Sino-Russian trade exceeded $200 billion in 2023, increasing by more than 30% year-on-year. This support is crucial for Russia, but it is clearly insufficient to compensate for its sense of isolation in military and diplomatic terms.

Secondly, "reconsidering the direction" might imply that Russia is seeking other partners. In recent years, Russia's interactions with countries like India and Turkey have increased significantly. India, too, has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict but has not been publicly criticized by Russia, instead benefiting from purchasing Russian oil. Does this mean that Russia is attempting to adjust its foreign strategy and reduce its reliance on China? Or is it merely pressuring China to take a side at critical moments?

Looking deeper, this statement may be part of Russia's psychological warfare. By making public statements, the Russian side aims to test China's limits while showing the West that "the Sino-Russian alliance is not unbreakable," thus alleviating its own pressure. This strategy is not uncommon in international relations, but its effectiveness remains to be seen.

Since the outbreak of the conflict, China has consistently emphasized "not taking sides," calling for resolving disputes through dialogue. This position may seem "balanced," but it has been controversial. Supporters argue that neutrality demonstrates the responsibility of a major power, avoiding the risk of involvement in the conflict while maintaining diplomatic flexibility. Data shows that China has not lost its main trading partners with both Ukraine and Russia, with exports to Ukraine increasing by 15% in 2023 and trade with Russia surging significantly. This "win-win" situation is the benefit of neutrality.

However, there are also many opposing voices. Some analysts point out that neutrality makes China appear "ambiguous" morally, especially in the eyes of the West, where China's failure to explicitly condemn Russia seems like "indirect support." This not only intensifies Sino-American tensions but also makes Russia feel "not satisfied enough." The recent remarks by the Russian expert can be seen as an open challenge to China's neutral policy. If China continues to "stay still," will it undermine the trust between China and Russia? Conversely, if it adjusts its position, it may trigger greater diplomatic chain reactions.

Sino-Russian relations are often described as "strategic cooperation back-to-back," but there are no cracks. Historically, the two countries had conflicts over territorial issues and ideological differences. Now, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a new test. Russia needs China but also fears over-reliance; China values Russia's strategic importance but does not want to "take the blame" for it. Behind the expert's comments lies a reflection of the interests game between the two sides.

From a practical perspective, Sino-Russian cooperation is unlikely to change in the short term. Russian energy is indispensable to China, and the Chinese market is equally essential to Russia's economy. However, in the long run, if Russia truly "reconsiders its direction," or if Western pressure on China increases, the space for China's neutrality may further shrink. At that time, whether China continues to "remain calm" or is forced to adjust its strategy will be a major test.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is no longer just a regional crisis, but a stage for global power restructuring. The United States and its allies continue to pressure Russia while rallying Asian-Pacific countries to contain China; Russia, on the other hand, seeks to break through using its energy card and diplomatic strategies. China's neutrality may seem to keep it out of the conflict, but in reality, it is right in the eye of the storm. The remarks by Russian experts undoubtedly add a new variable to this game.

It is worth noting that the international community's attitude toward neutrality is also diverging. European countries hope China will play a greater role in mediation, while developing countries see China as a pillar of the "non-Western bloc." Russia's "reconsidering its direction" may let these expectations fall flat, or it may prompt China to reassess its positioning.

The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unclear, and the future of Sino-Russian relations is equally uncertain. The remarks by Russian strategic experts are not only a "warning" to China's neutrality, but also a fascinating note in the game of great powers. China's choices not only concern its own interests but will also affect the global landscape. Facing Russia's "reconsidering its direction," how will China respond? How far can the neutral policy go? These questions may only time can answer.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is full of twists and turns, and the Russian expert's statement has cast a haze over Sino-Russian relations. Is China's neutrality "not being helpful," or is it a deep strategy? What waves will Russia's "reconsidering its direction" bring? We welcome your comments and insights, and together we can analyze the deeper logic behind this great power game!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836503611517952/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.