[Source/Observation Network by Ruan Jiaqi]
As the world's largest cobalt producer, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) imposed a four-month ban on cobalt exports in late February this year, aiming to boost the sluggish cobalt prices. As the ban is about to expire, the country has recently signaled that it may further tighten cobalt exports and has extended an "olive branch" of mineral cooperation to the United States.
"At a time when China and the U.S. are in tense competition for key metals, the DRC is betting on cobalt," reported Bloomberg on May 21, citing expert opinions. In the midst of a trade war, the DRC is attempting to attract the Trump administration without jeopardizing its crucial investments from China. China has been deeply involved in the DRC's key mineral investments for many years and has established deep roots there. It already owns two of the world's largest cobalt mines in the country.
According to reports, President Tshisekedi of the DRC described his government's measures regarding cobalt as an effort to "fully control the cobalt value chain," transforming the country from a "simple commodity supplier" to a "key participant in refining strategic minerals."
However, some analysts and traders see Tshisekedi's actions as a "high-risk gamble." These sources said they believe that the Kinshasa government is "walking a tightrope": it wants to attract other external investors to dilute the influence of Chinese companies on the country's mining industry but does not want to damage relations with its main trading partners.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, pointed out that African critical minerals have always been a thorn in Sino-U.S. relations. The Trump administration had listed it as a priority issue. She believes that potential mineral share deals between the White House and the DRC could "irritate China."
The U.S. media emphasized that, in fact, without Chinese investment, the DRC would never be able to achieve a leapfrog development in copper production tripling within ten years and nearly equivalent growth in cobalt production within that same period. The U.S.'s attempt to enter this field is far from "easy," as claimed, but instead faces numerous inherent disadvantages. Moreover, in the field of critical minerals, China's layout has been decades ahead of the U.S.
According to IMF data cited by Bloomberg, copper and cobalt exports account for around 40% of the DRC's GDP. In 2024, bilateral trade between China and the DRC reached nearly $27 billion, while trade between the DRC and the U.S. was only $820 million.
Copper (light gray) and cobalt (dark blue) production in the DRC over the past decade. Chart by Bloomberg.
According to Bloomberg reports, just before the U.S. initiated a "trade war" against China in early April, the DRC proposed an "agreement-for-security" concept to Washington, emulating the U.S.-Ukraine agreement on critical metal minerals.
On April 17th local time, Masad Boulos, senior advisor to the U.S. government on African affairs under the Trump administration, claimed that he had "consulted and planned the path" with President Tshisekedi of the DRC regarding the mineral agreement. He revealed that institutions such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation might support private investments in the DRC’s mining industry and infrastructure.
The U.S. State Department's statement directly clarified its competitive intentions toward China. It complained that "China's control over the critical minerals supply chain poses a significant threat to U.S. industrial and technological capabilities, which must be terminated."
China's Foreign Ministry immediately refuted this, pointing out in its statement that "the international community clearly knows who is practicing zero-sum games and who is profiting from conflicts," emphasizing that China's cooperation in the DRC has always been "open, transparent, and legal."
Bloomberg noted that China's long-term deep involvement in Africa's critical minerals has put any American intervention attempts at a severe disadvantage.
"Easier said than done," the U.S. media recalled. After the pro-Western Mobutu regime fell in 1997, Western enterprises rushed into the DRC to seize mineral resources at low prices, but most eventually failed due to the harsh business environment. Conflicts and corruption often deterred Western enterprises in the face of extreme poverty and inadequate infrastructure.
The withdrawal of Western capital opened the door for China. Since the end of the 20th century, China has become the dominant player in the DRC's copper and cobalt industries, taking on both mining and consumption roles.
Bloomberg reported that China has now built a complete commercial ecosystem in the DRC, ranging from large enterprises to small businesses. These enterprises have explored survival strategies amidst multiple challenges such as corruption, armed forces, poor roads, and political instability, gradually establishing themselves.
Meanwhile, China, with decades of construction of processing plants, battery facilities, and electric vehicle factories domestically, has gained influence over cobalt prices. According to data from the professional trade company Darton Commodities, last year more than 80% of the global cobalt refining capacity was concentrated in China.
In addition, data from AidData, a research laboratory at the College of William & Mary, shows that from 2000 to 2021, China provided $56.9 billion in credit and aid to global "transformational minerals" projects, further consolidating this dominant position.
More importantly, the speed at which Chinese companies have driven the industrialization of the DRC's mining sector leaves Western mining companies far behind.
The report mentioned that international peers often require decades to explore valuable geological resources and build a mine, but Chinese companies' speed left competitors stunned—the largest cobalt mine acquired by a Chinese enterprise, Kisanfu, went from project launch to production in just over two years.
Under the strong push of Chinese enterprises, Glencore, the global commodities giant that had held the title of the world's largest cobalt producer for 15 consecutive years, also had to accept the gradual loss of pricing power and the reshaping of the market landscape. In 2023, Glencore was officially replaced by Chinese enterprises, losing its title as the "largest cobalt producer."
Copper and cobalt producers in the DRC, light gray represents "non-Chinese enterprises."
According to Reuters, the DRC's cobalt export ban, scheduled to be lifted in late June, may still lead to tighter export policies according to remarks made by officials from the country's mining authority at the 2025 Singapore Cobalt Conference last week.
"Bloomberg Intelligence" analysis suggests that if the ban extends until the end of the year, the DRC could lose up to $400 million. Analysts also warned that strict controls might accelerate the shift of electric vehicle battery manufacturers to cobalt-free alternatives.
The report stated that the DRC is currently discussing long-term price control measures, including export quotas. Andre Wameso, deputy chief of staff responsible for economic affairs in the DRC president's office, emphasized at the conference that the country is considering how to formulate appropriate policies.
He stressed, "Not only to develop the mining industry and recover capital, but also to ensure that the people of the DRC benefit in this round of transformation."
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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506802786332377609/
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