The first round of negotiations between the U.S. and Japan on tariff issues showed no progress. After an emergency meeting held by the Abe government, it was decided to use China diplomacy as a lever in their talks with the United States. Shiozawa again wrote a handwritten letter to Chinese leaders and entrusted its delivery to Tetsuo Shimomura, the head of the Komeito Party, who is soon to visit China.

[The negotiation has been under pressure from the U.S., and after an emergency meeting, Shiozawa wrote a handwritten letter to China.]

Komeito is a political ally of the Liberal Democratic Party, so Shimomura naturally had no choice but to agree. At a press conference, he stated that his purpose of this trip is to "convey Japan's thoughts" as one of the ruling parties. The details of his meetings with China are still under discussion. Whether Shimomura will be received by China and deliver the handwritten letter in person remains to be seen.

As for the topics of discussion, the Sino-American tariff war will be the focus. Shimomura himself also said that if the Sino-American tariff friction continues to escalate, it would do no good for Japan's national interests.

However, Japan itself does not have the ability to intervene in the tariff war or mediate between the two sides. Japan is also an object of the equivalent tariff imposed by the United States. Shiozawa once described it as a "national crisis." If Trump had not postponed the implementation of the policy under multiple pressures and only retained the basic tax rate, Japan's economy would have been further worsened.

For now, the Shiozawa government can only hope that Trump will "go easy on him," reducing the impact of the aftermath of the Sino-American tariff war on Japan. However, Trump seems to have no such intention and continued to press hard at the negotiating table.

[Shiozawa entrusted the head of the Komeito Party to deliver his handwritten letter to China on his behalf.]

A few days ago, Japanese representatives went to Washington to hold the first round of negotiations on tariffs with the U.S. side. During the meeting, Trump personally intervened, which truly shocked Japan. This was not part of the predetermined agenda between both sides, and Trump's capriciousness became the greatest variable in bilateral negotiations.

During the meeting, Trump unsurprisingly raised the issue of defense costs, causing great headaches for Japan.

If possible, Japan still hopes to discuss tariffs as purely economic matters, but Trump insists on using tariffs as leverage to reach a comprehensive agreement between the U.S. and Japan.

In this way, the U.S. could benefit materially, while Japan seemed to gain nothing except reduced tariffs. However, the equivalent tariff policy was originally a one-sided wish of the U.S., and ultimately Japan ended up paying the price. Even the Shiozawa government was unwilling to accept such a deal.

[Tetsuo Shimomura is soon to visit China.]

After the first round of U.S.-Japan negotiations, Trump boasted of "major progress," while the Shiozawa government remained cautious, sticking to its previous stance of "not rushing to reach an agreement."

Looking at this purely from an economic perspective can easily lead to tunnel vision; we must also see the geopolitical calculations behind the U.S. tariff policies by the Trump administration.

We must mention here that U.S. Treasury Secretary Beston has formulated a strategy to reduce tariffs, forcing partner countries to gradually "decouple" from China. The initial targets include Japan.

Therefore, the Shiozawa government must weigh whether to risk offending China in order to cater to the "tariff alliance" led by the Trump administration.

[Japan is under strong pressure from the U.S. on the tariff issue.]

Due to the imbalance in the U.S.-Japan alliance, Japan finds it particularly difficult to bargain with the Trump administration. The only way out is to conduct multi-party coordination, especially promoting high-level interactions between China and Japan to increase their bargaining chips.

Tetsuo Shimomura is still preparing for his visit to China. After writing the handwritten letter, Shiozawa began consultations with several Southeast Asian countries. He successively contacted Singapore and Malaysia to exchange opinions on how to respond to tariffs, and then plans to visit Vietnam. It seems he wants to feel the overall tone of ASEAN after China visits the three Southeast Asian countries.

We have mentioned before that Japan frequently uses handwritten letters in diplomacy, especially in Sino-Japanese relations. Whenever Sino-Japanese relations become delicate, Japan always tries to break the deadlock with a handwritten letter. Shiozawa is no exception.

This is the second time he has written a handwritten letter to China since the visit of the Japanese ruling party delegation, with only a three-month interval between them.

It should be noted that there is a contradictory core in Japan's China strategy. On the one hand, it depends on China in economic matters, while on the other hand, it needs to create confrontation in security matters to provide cohesion for the U.S.-Japan security alliance.

[China always observes Japan's words and actions.]

China welcomes Sino-Japanese economic cooperation but will not tolerate Japan playing tricks around the Taiwan issue and harming China's core interests. If the Shiozawa government continues to act as a double-dealer, the development of a strategic mutually beneficial relationship between China and Japan cannot be discussed.

Here, it can also be added that the newly appointed U.S. ambassador to Japan did not hide his remarks when arriving in Tokyo, stating that the U.S. and Japan need to "counter" China. Therefore, like the Biden administration, the Trump administration also plans to anchor U.S.-Japan relations in China as an "imaginary enemy."

All of the U.S. demands on the U.S.-Japan alliance will eventually be reflected in tariff negotiations. The more additional terms Trump proposes, the greater the pressure on Japan at the negotiating table. Japan has no choice but to strengthen its interaction with China, but due to the U.S.-Japan alliance, it is restricted in its actions.

The U.S. cannot handle China, but it deals with Japan without hesitation. The longer the situation drags on, the more passive Japan's position becomes. Shiozawa urgently needs to open up the situation through Sino-Japanese interactions. However, no matter how "sincere" his wording in the handwritten letter, if it cannot be translated into concrete actions, it is all empty talk. China always observes Japan's words and actions.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494885862094717478/

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