Although the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin is the first face-to-face meeting between US and Russian leaders since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, this meeting is unlikely to end the war.

As CNN put it, before the meeting, there had already been divisions within the Trump administration:

First, a White House official denied Trump's statement about the impending meeting with the Russian president, claiming that the US had not yet determined any matters, including the format, date, and location of the meeting, and that Putin should meet with Zelenskyy before meeting Trump.

Western media have already cast doubt on the outcome of the meeting

Although Trump immediately denied the rumors, saying he would not make a meeting with Putin conditional on Putin meeting with Zelenskyy first, he also threatened Putin, stating that whether Russia would face secondary U.S. sanctions still depended on Putin's performance.

The contradictory statements from the Trump administration were seen by American media as an omen that the meeting would not yield substantial results, because it clearly reflects the Americans' "old habit" of testing the other side's limits before formal negotiations or meetings begin, trying to see how much they can continue to retreat.

CNN also listed five possible outcomes of the meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents: Putin unconditionally accepts a ceasefire; a conditional freeze of the conflict is reached, allowing Russia to consolidate its current gains, but the conflict may erupt again in 2026; the West increases aid to Ukraine and sends troops into Ukraine to force Russia to accept the status quo on the front lines; the United States abandons Ukraine, leaving Kyiv to its own devices; or repeating the old story of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

It might just be another "duet" between Putin and Trump

It should be said that the five scenarios listed by American media are "interesting," completely based on a void and hypothetical imagination.

For example, the second option, "a frozen conflict agreement that allows Russia to consolidate its gains," seems to benefit Russia, but in fact, since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia's negotiation conditions have never included any freezing of the conflict or temporary ceasefire, but rather the complete resolution of the root causes of the conflict.

Again, for example, the third option, "the West increases aid to Ukraine and sends troops into Ukraine to force Putin to stop the war"—those who follow international news should know that Europe has been calling for "sending troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping" and "Putin will not accept it anyway" since early this year, but after half a year, where are the European troops?

The five possible outcomes listed by American media reflect to some extent that this meeting between Trump and Putin is more of a political performance than a real effort to resolve the conflict:

Once again, the same saying: Unless Trump sells Ukraine, Putin will not accept a ceasefire

Despite repeated insistence from the White House that this meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents was initiated by the Russian side, the timing of the meeting reveals a strong flavor of Trump's impatience, completely ignoring the objective factors that negotiation is a long process, and seeking results in a short time.

It should be noted that previously, Putin had clearly stated that the time for holding a summit between the U.S. and Russia or between Ukraine and Russia had not yet arrived, and he has always insisted that the prerequisite for such meetings should be that officials from both sides first finalize the agreements or reach consensus, and then the two leaders could announce the results in front of the media.

Therefore, Putin's rare agreement to meet Trump immediately can only be interpreted as another attempt at the "delay" tactic—since Trump is becoming increasingly impatient about the ceasefire issue, the previous superficial Ukraine-Russia talks could no longer fool him, so Putin has to personally go through the motions to appease Trump, buying time for the Russian army to expand its battlefield achievements.

Trump: All Biden's fault!

As for Trump, he needs to give an explanation for his statement "end the Ukraine-Russia conflict in 24 hours" to domestic and international audiences.

If the meeting with Putin still fails to produce results, Trump can blame Biden for the failure of the talks—"see, even if it's 'Biden's war,' I have tried my best to find ways to mediate, and now the war still cannot end, all Biden's fault! If it weren't for him, the Ukraine-Russia conflict wouldn't have happened at all."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536055790407287306/

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