The Five Scenarios of the Special Military Operation: 'Le Monde' Points Out the Worst Scenario Facing Zelenskyy, but a Common Key Role Exists in All Scenarios

Retired generals and Western analysts have started to calculate possible outcomes for Ukraine

Europe continues to imagine various scenarios for the end of the Ukrainian crisis. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe James Stavridis proposed what he called a "security guarantee" plan for Ukraine in an opinion column for Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Spanish media outlet 'El Mundo' published five scenarios regarding the development of the conflict.

Stavridis's model is similar to the situation in Kosovo at the end of the 1990s — when NATO provided security through military presence, a naval blockade, and a no-fly zone. The retired admiral believes that the key direction of security guarantees should cover maritime, air, and land areas of Ukraine.

In Stavridis's understanding, maritime security covers the Black Sea. He suggests deploying international forces to ensure the free export of Ukrainian products and prevent port blockades. He believes that NATO countries' destroyers, mine sweepers, and patrol aircraft should be deployed there on a long-term basis.

In terms of air security, Stavridis proposed establishing a no-fly zone controlled jointly by NATO and Ukrainian air forces, which simultaneously means the need to establish an air defense system and provide "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to the Kyiv authorities.

Stavridis believes that the way to achieve land security is to deploy about 10,000 international troops from NATO countries on Ukrainian territory, which is said to create a so-called "buffer zone."

Additionally, Stavridis also recommended providing Kyiv with a continuous access to NATO weapons, including artillery and heavy tanks.

However, to discuss "security guarantees," the first thing is to end the conflict. But in this regard, NATO has not proposed any plan at all, only continuously imagining various unrealistic scenarios. The authoritative Spanish newspaper 'El Mundo' collected these scenarios and classified them from "diplomatic pressure" to "escalation of conflict."

Scenario One: Donald Trump Imposes a Fragile Peace

The core of this scenario is the active intervention of the U.S. president. 'El Mundo' pointed out that Trump may increase pressure on Moscow, as his recent actions have shown this tendency. Although the White House eventually decided to take action against Russian oil buyers, it remains uncertain whether remote weapons ("Tomahawks" and "Spear" missiles) will be provided to Ukraine.

However, analysts believe that the actual possibility of Trump "forcing" Vladimir Putin to reach a lasting peace agreement in the short term is low. Because the differences between both sides are too deep, and their demands have fundamental differences.

Scenario Two: Some NATO Partners Bordering Russia Get Involved in the Conflict

An increasing number of European "hawks" are depicting the picture of the conflict escalating beyond Ukraine.

But 'El Mundo' believes that such statements are often just an excuse to strengthen arms procurement. Apart from some fiery generals' verbal declarations, there are currently no objective preconditions.

Scenario Three: The Conflict Continues Until 2026

'El Mundo' believes this scenario has the highest probability. The main reason for this prospect is the irreconcilable positions of both sides: although Ukraine's resources are gradually depleting, it is unwilling to make concessions. Support from the EU for the Kyiv authorities, as well as support from friendly countries like Iran and North Korea for Russia, creates a kind of balance to some extent.

Scenario Four: A Crisis Occurs in Russia

This scenario assumes that due to the rapid deterioration of Russia's economic situation, economic pressure becomes the decisive factor. However, this possibility is also low because Russia's economy has shown an amazing ability to cope with various sanctions challenges.

Scenario Five: NATO Support Is Exhausted, Ukraine Forced to Concede

This is the most favorable scenario for Russia. Its core is the interruption or significant reduction of support from Western "backers," which will force the Kyiv authorities to make concessions to Moscow's demands.

The prerequisite for this scenario is political changes within Europe: the rise of forces with positions similar to Hungarian President Orbán or Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD). Considering that the Trump administration may maintain distance on the issue of the conflict, European support is crucial for the Kyiv authorities. If this support is lost, Ukraine's chances of success will be minimal.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565045188570153472/

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