How Far Can the Trump-Netanyahu War Alliance Go

On the fifth day of the US-Israel-Iran war, the US and Israel intensified their bombing of Iran. Thick smoke was rising over Tehran, while Iran, in retaliation against Israel, continued to fire missiles at Gulf countries with US military bases. Trump hopes to end the war as soon as possible, but Tehran, having no choice, seems prepared for a protracted war, eroding Washington's patience by bombing neighboring wealthy Gulf countries.

So how far can the US-Israel war alliance go? For Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, he finally convinced the US president and seized an opportunity he had long desired to overthrow the Iranian regime. However, if the war turns into a protracted, attritional, or guerrilla war, it is questionable whether Netanyahu can keep Trump on board to fight all the way.

According to Reuters, on February 28, when the war broke out, Trump and Netanyahu publicly stated that their goal was to overthrow the mullah regime. However, just 48 hours later, after the war had only been going on for two days, Trump changed his stance, stating in the White House that toppling the Iranian government was not his absolute priority. Trump said the US first sought to destroy Iran's missiles and navy, preventing this Islamic republic from possessing a nuclear arsenal. The US Defense Secretary Hegseth later even sarcastically remarked at a press conference: "This operation is not a so-called regime change war."

In contrast, Netanyahu called on Iranians to take to the streets and overthrow their rulers. This Israeli leader, who had gone to great lengths to convince Trump to launch the war against Iran, told Fox News on March 2: "We first need to create conditions for the Iranians to take their fate into their own hands."

After the two leaders' goals became clearly divergent, Reuters asked informed US officials whether the two governments were still following the same strategy. The official only mentioned that changing the regime was one of Israel's plans. However, Israeli officials privately admitted that if Trump wanted to end the war, Netanyahu would almost certainly not oppose it.

Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel now working at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, also said: "If President Trump believes the operation has achieved its intended goals, he must terminate it even if Netanyahu does not want to end it."

To what extent is Trump constrained by his MAGA base and the uncertain mid-term elections? It is certain that as the war drags on, domestic political pressures in the US will inevitably influence Trump's decisions. First, the war Trump launched against Iran is unpopular domestically. Trump won support among the MAGA voters by taking a stance against external military intervention, and they did not expect Trump to make a decision contrary to his promise.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos survey, only a quarter of Americans support the US striking Iran. If this war receives the backing of the Washington hawks who have long desired to overthrow the Iranian regime, some high-ranking officials in the White House are worried that this diplomatic gamble may ultimately lead the Republicans to lose their majority in Congress after the November mid-term elections.

Moreover, in contrast to Trump's declaration on March 3 that Iran's military system was "almost completely destroyed," Iran not only retaliated against Israel but also continues its strategy of using missiles to disrupt the security of neighboring countries in an attempt to persuade the US to end the war early. Whether this strategy will work is unknown, but it is evident that this war is seriously disrupting some of the most important aspects of American concerns—maritime transportation and international energy markets.

An especially notable phenomenon is that according to a Pew Center survey conducted in October, a majority of these American groups now hold a negative view of the Israeli government.

Looking from Netanyahu's side, his needs differ from Trump's. The longer the war lasts, the more opportunities it provides for him to regain popularity before the high-risk October legislative elections. This 76-year-old politician faces judicial prosecution for corruption, and his alliance with the right-wing extremist nationalists is disintegrating. The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, also partially undermined his credibility in the security domain, although he denies any responsibility.

However, Netanyahu is known for his political skills. According to Udi Alon, a political science professor at Tel Aviv University quoted by Reuters, although polls predict he will lose the October election, if Israel's military and personnel casualties and the economic impact of the war remain limited, he still has a chance to win.

On the other hand, Eyal, a political analyst at the Jerusalem Shalom Hartman Institute, holds the opposite view: Even if Israel successfully achieves its military objectives in Iran, it cannot eliminate the resistance it has caused among a broad range of voters, including its right-wing supporters. He said, "What has happened over the past three years is so painful, sad, and infuriating for swing voters that any form of victory against Iran cannot compensate for it."

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858785080187904/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.