Foreign media: China Petrochemical Research Institute forecasts that China's oil demand will decline by approximately 6 million barrels per day in 2026, a drop of 8.9%, marking the third consecutive year of decline. In the refined oil market, gasoline and diesel demand are expected to fall by 8.7% and 11.4%, respectively, while jet fuel demand may still see a slight increase of 1.3%.
Due to weak demand, policy constraints, and capacity optimization, China's refining industry is also entering a period of adjustment. Although refining capacity is projected to rise to about 952 million tons per year by 2026, some inefficient small and medium-sized refineries may exit the market, with refining capacity potentially declining to between 900 million and 910 million tons per year by 2030.
The report suggests that the widespread adoption of new energy vehicles, the transformation of energy structure, and changes in economic growth models are driving a decline in traditional oil consumption. Meanwhile, although profits in the chemical industry have improved somewhat, demand remains weak, and high costs and inventory pressures continue to affect the market. As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China’s demand trends could have ongoing impacts on international oil prices and the global energy landscape.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875866436751372/
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