【By Observer Net, Liu Bai】The harvest season has arrived, but the largest customer has been driven away by the Trump administration. Looking at the soybeans that are about to be wasted, farmers in North Dakota, a major agricultural state in the U.S., are at a loss.
Traders and analysts said that the traditional U.S. soybean sales season is already halfway through, but due to the stagnation of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations leading to export blockages, South American competitors have seized the market gap, and U.S. farmers are missing out on billions of dollars in soybean sales to China.
The North Dakota state association and economists said that the Trump administration has made no progress in trade with China, and China has not made any commitments for soybean purchases, which is the key factor dragging down the agricultural economy. Analysts said that China had already expanded its soybean reserves before Trump took office, and because it is not facing the complex political pressures like the U.S., China is good at playing a long game. Moreover, the agricultural subsidies promised in the U.S. legislation cannot timely alleviate the current farmers' difficulties.
"China is good at playing a long game."
According to an article from the "North Dakota Observer" on September 14, North Dakota's soybeans rely heavily on exports to China, but so far, Chinese buyers have not placed orders yet.
Soybeans are one of the most important agricultural products in the United States, occupying a central position in U.S. agricultural product exports. Among the more than 4 billion bushels of soybeans planted by U.S. farmers each year (one U.S. bushel of soybeans is approximately 27.216 kilograms), nearly a quarter is exported to China. Last year, the value of soybeans imported by China from the U.S. was nearly $13 billion, while this figure was around $2 billion twenty years ago.
"China has not made any purchase commitments," John Newton, a long-time agricultural economic researcher and president of the agricultural credit service company Terrain, said at an agricultural exhibition last week. "We need to see these purchase commitments materialize now. I think this is the key factor dragging down the agricultural economy right now."
Newton pointed out that the export commitment volume for this season's harvest is at the lowest level since the 2018-19 season, directly causing the soybean price to remain low.
Newton previously served as the chief economist for the Republican Party on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.
He said that although the Trump administration has reached agreements with the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other countries, "we have not seen any progress in trade with China, and the sector hit hardest is the soybean industry."
On September 10, 2025, the soybean fields in Cass County, North Dakota, gradually turned color as the harvest approached.
Despite the trade disputes between China and the U.S., the North Dakota Soybean Association still welcomed a Chinese trade delegation in August.
Local farmer Scott Germain, who grows soybeans near Oxen, also serves as a director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.
Last week, Germain represented the association at an agricultural exhibition, saying, "It is worth noting that the communication channels between buyers and sellers are currently open. What we need to do now is keep politics away from soybean trade."
Farmer Mark Knutsen from Fargo participated in the Chinese delegation's visit to a farm and grain warehouse in North Dakota.
"They (Chinese buyers) are willing to do business with us, but the price of U.S. soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans," Knutsen said.
Previously, U.S. media noticed that Chinese companies are increasingly turning to Brazil for soybean purchases and have increased investments in infrastructure in Brazil's agricultural hinterland. In the past decade, China has invested heavily in warehouses, railways, ports, and other infrastructure in Brazil to transport more Brazilian agricultural products onto Chinese ships. Last year, Brazil provided 70% of China's soybean imports, a figure twice that of 15 years ago.
Newton said it is unclear how long China will continue to rely on Brazil as its main soybean supplier.
He pointed out that before Trump took office, China had already accumulated a large amount of soybean inventory.
"Theoretically, China could meet all its soybean needs by consuming its inventory and purchasing from Brazil," Newton said. "But this approach cannot be sustained for a long time, possibly only applicable for this crop season."
However, Newton also mentioned that China is good at playing a long game, as it does not face the complex political pressures within the U.S.
"Therefore, their strategy may differ from our domestic strategy."
Newton believes that the U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing and make a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policy in November, which may affect Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.
Newton said if the tariffs are ruled illegal, "many of the negotiation cards held by the Trump administration will disappear."
Government subsidies can't save the fire
Germain said that China's temporary reluctance to enter the U.S. soybean market is bringing other changes to the entire soybean market. He said that some Southeast Asian countries, which might have previously purchased soybeans from Brazil, are now buying some U.S. soybeans.
"But unfortunately, most of these soybeans are shipped from the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast of the U.S., so farmers in North Dakota may not benefit from them," Germain said.
Soybeans from North Dakota usually go to Asia via Pacific coast ports in the northwestern part of the U.S.
Additionally, storms have destroyed storage silos on local farms and grain warehouses, which has also affected farmers in North Dakota. Some farmers have no choice but to sell their soybeans at a low price during the harvest season, rather than waiting for the market price to rise.
Last year, two soybean processing plants were opened in North Dakota, and several more were added in South Dakota.
Germain said that the existence of these processing plants has somewhat prevented the further decline of soybean prices.
"At the moment, they are really a savior," Germain said.
During Trump's first term, the Sino-U.S. trade dispute led the U.S. federal government to pay $2.3 billion in relief funds to farmers who suffered trade losses due to export blockages.
Newton said there are voices again suggesting providing similar economic "transition support" to farmers, but the implementation of this plan is still affected by various factors.
Newton pointed out that some people in Congress believe that the so-called "Big and Beautiful Act" will have $6.6 billion allocated over the next decade to support farmers, which is sufficient to meet the needs of the agricultural industry. But he also said that many of the benefits included in the bill (such as improved crop insurance and other related programs) will only benefit most farmers in the next harvest season.
He said that some members of Congress have not realized that these potential subsidies "will take a long time to be fulfilled."
John Hoeven, chairman of the Senate Agriculture Appropriations Committee and a Republican senator from North Dakota, stated in a statement sent to the "North Dakota Observer" that he is working with Senator John Buzhardt, chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee and a Republican senator from Montana, Senator John Thune, majority leader of the Senate and a Republican senator from South Dakota, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, "to find ways to support local farmers while the Trump administration promotes the development of a more comprehensive long-term trade agreement."
Billions of Chinese orders may be lost
From May to August this year, China's soybean imports continuously set new records, and inventories increased, partly because buyers prepared in advance for possible supply disruptions in the fourth quarter.
"There's not much to say about the Chinese market right now," said an American soybean exporter. "In normal times, we can complete 15 shiploads of soybean exports per week."
Reuters reported that the traditional U.S. soybean sales season is already halfway through, and due to the stagnation of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations causing export blockages, South American competitors have seized the market gap, and U.S. farmers are missing out on billions of dollars in soybean sales to China.
Two trade representatives in Asia revealed that Chinese importers have booked about 7.4 million tons of mainly South American soybeans for October shipments, covering 95% of China's expected October soybean demand; China has also booked 1 million tons of soybeans for November shipments, accounting for 15% of its expected November imports.
One of the trade representatives in Singapore at an international trading company said that during the same period last year, Chinese buyers had booked about 12 to 13 million tons of U.S. soybeans. Usually, the U.S. concentrates its soybean exports to China from September to the following January, but in this crop year, Chinese buyers have not booked any U.S. soybean cargoes yet.
Customs data show that in 2024, China's soybean imports from the U.S. accounted for 20% of its total imports, a significant drop from 41% in 2016. From January to July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, while the total amount imported from the U.S. was only 16.57 million tons.
"Based on the current situation, we believe that the soybean supply in the Chinese market will still mainly come from South American soybeans by the end of this year," said the Singapore-based trade representative.
April 4, 2025, farm workers harvesting soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. IC Photo
Reuters noted that the long absence of Chinese buyers in the U.S. soybean market is expected to further depress the Chicago soybean futures benchmark price, which is currently hovering near a five-year low.
Traders said that for soybeans to be shipped in September and October, the price of U.S. soybeans per bushel is 80 to 90 cents lower than that of Brazilian soybeans, but China's trade retaliation measures have increased the purchase cost for importers by $2 per bushel.
Although other countries have continued to purchase U.S. soybeans, Dan Bass, president of Chicago Agricultural Resources Company, estimated that if China does not enter the U.S. soybean market before mid-November, the total loss of U.S. soybean sales to China could reach 14 to 16 million tons.
Bass said that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is likely to lower its forecast for U.S. soybean exports in the 2025/26 season in its upcoming monthly "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" report; if the trade dispute is not resolved, the forecast may be further reduced in the future.
In the U.S. Department of Agriculture's previous outlook, U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/26 season were expected to be 46.4 million tons, which is less than the 51.02 million tons of the previous season.
The report also pointed out that China seems not to have completely closed the door to U.S. soybeans. There is still a large demand for soybean deliveries from November to the following January.
"Currently, U.S. soybeans are price attractive for many non-Chinese buyers, especially during the peak sales season when the market competition is relatively limited," said Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting, based in Beijing.
"Compared to that, as the Brazilian sales season approaches its end, China's strong demand has pushed up the price of Brazilian soybeans. If a trade agreement is reached between China and the U.S., the prospects for U.S. soybeans may significantly improve."
Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng clearly stated at a breakfast meeting between Sino-U.S. soybean industry partners held in Washington last month that both China and the U.S. are the world's most important agricultural production and consumption countries, and they can complement each other's strengths. The Sino-U.S. agricultural cooperation not only enriches the "shopping baskets" of consumers in both countries, but also fills the "pockets" of American farmers, providing many "golden ideas" for the transformation and upgrading of agriculture in both countries, and walking a "new path" to ensure global food security.
He pointed out that agriculture should not be politicized, and farmers should not bear the costs of the trade war. Prohibiting Chinese citizens and enterprises from purchasing farmland is just a pretense of national security, and it is actually a political manipulation, using self-interest to hold back Sino-U.S. agricultural cooperation.
Xie Feng emphasized that both sides should implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, give full play to the role of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks mechanism, enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation, share the dividends of development, and return to the win-win track. He called on industry associations and enterprises of both countries to be diligent "farmers", not only to "remove pests" and loudly oppose the politicization and securitization of trade issues, but also to "cultivate seeds", take more initiatives and promote the wind of mutual benefit, so that Sino-U.S. agricultural cooperation can flourish and grow healthily.
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