At 4:34 PM Eastern Time, with less than four hours remaining until the ultimatum deadline, Trump reaffirmed during a phone interview with Fox News that if Iran fails to meet U.S. demands by 8 PM Tuesday, the United States is ready to launch a large-scale strike against Iran.
Baier of Fox News said: "I just finished speaking with the President. I asked him, if you had to assess it, what's the probability this will ultimately be resolved through negotiations? He said he doesn't want to give a probabilistic judgment. But he clearly stated that something will definitely happen at 8 PM. That’s his exact words."
Trump’s statement on Fox News appeared to be an unequivocal ultimatum, yet it more closely resembled a carefully orchestrated brinkmanship strategy. Contextually, this declaration wraps a result with only a 50% likelihood in the guise of 100% certainty—aimed at maximum pressure rather than an actual declaration of war.
The realistic possibility of military escalation: This move may serve as a response to battlefield setbacks (such as the recent downing of a U.S. F-15E fighter jet) in order to salvage face. However, the likelihood of large-scale ground warfare remains low; instead, limited strikes targeting military or energy infrastructure are far more probable. The stability of international oil prices and geopolitical conditions remain critical constraints.
Domestic considerations behind the hardline stance: Domestic anti-war sentiment—expressed as “the people want us to come home”—combined with mounting pressure ahead of the upcoming midterm elections has forced Trump to adopt a tough posture to extricate himself from political difficulty. Thus, he urgently needs Iran to make concessions to fulfill campaign promises, curb inflation, and boost his electoral prospects.
Irreconcilable positions between both sides: Iran refuses short-term ceasefire, insisting that sanctions must first be lifted before any permanent truce can be negotiated. Meanwhile, Trump insists on immediate Strait access opening and refuses any major concessions—rendering their demands fundamentally incompatible.
With just a few hours left until the ultimatum deadline. Do you think Trump will delay again?
This is the third ultimatum—will there be a fourth, fifth…?
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861845962414092/
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