Image of a Chinese fighter jet generated by artificial intelligence in the sky (Al Jazeera)
The Chengdu J-10, also known as "Vigorous Dragon," has been the cornerstone of the Chinese Air Force's modernization since its entry into service in the year 2000. It is Beijing's first domestically produced multirole fighter with advanced technology and performance that can rival Western and Russian counterparts from the same era.
The upgraded J-10C features advanced flight systems comparable to most Western aircraft, enhancing pilots' ability to perform missions and improving efficiency.
Recently, there have been rumors of a potential military agreement between China and Iran—following several days of ceasefire between Israel and Iran—that China would sell J-10C fighters to Iran, which has raised questions about the objectives and strategic implications of this agreement.
Is this merely a weapons deal to enhance Iran's defense capabilities, or a strategic move reflecting China's changing role in the region? This report attempts to deconstruct the various aspects of the potential agreement and discusses it within the current regional and international context.
Transaction Details
Although the details of this historic aviation transaction remain shrouded in mystery, some intriguing questions have emerged regarding the nature of these aircraft and their strategic value.
The J-10C is an advanced fourth-generation fighter, classified as a 4.5 generation aircraft. It is equipped with an airborne active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, upgraded WS-10B engines, and advanced maneuverability and weaponry, including long-range air-to-air missiles.
It is believed that Iran has sought to purchase these aircraft for years to compensate for deficiencies in its air force, which currently relies on aging American and Russian fighter fleets.
A report by the South China Morning Post on June 26, 2025, citing Asian intelligence sources, stated, "The agreement between Beijing and Tehran includes the phased delivery of 24 aircraft starting from the end of this year, in exchange for Tehran supporting Chinese companies establishing their own presence in Iran's energy corridor."
The negotiations for this agreement began in 2021 and accelerated after the two countries signed a strategic cooperation agreement, paving the way for a broader framework of military and economic collaboration.
On March 27, 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, outlining a roadmap for long-term cooperation in areas such as economy, energy, infrastructure, and defense.
This agreement is based on the principles of mutual benefit and non-interference in internal affairs, including China's commitment to invest $40 billion in key sectors such as port development, railways, oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals in Iran, in exchange for Beijing securing stable energy supplies at favorable prices.
This agreement is part of China's policy to enhance its influence through the "Belt and Road" initiative, while Iran seeks to alleviate the impact of Western sanctions and consolidate its position in the balance of power in Asia.
The agreement also opened the door for military and security cooperation, including the exchange of expertise, joint training exercises, and strengthening of defense industries. This later manifested in accelerated military coordination between the two sides, leading to the J-10C fighter jet transaction.
According to an analysis by Stratfor Research, the confrontation between Israel and Iran in June 2025 reactivated China's cooperation with Tehran, as part of China's efforts to weaken U.S. influence in the Middle East.
Is China Violating the Rules of the Game?
As the situation in the Middle East accelerates, China is emerging as a new key player capable of shifting the balance of power, potentially transforming Beijing's role from an economic partner in the region to a security provider.
On June 24, Iran and Israel ended direct hostilities after 12 days of mutual bombing. This conflict caused widespread destruction of Iranian military facilities and infrastructure, as well as attacks on Israeli military infrastructure, particularly in Galilee and Negev.
In this context, the potential agreement between Iran and China appears to be a strategic response to the losses and a move towards further opening to the Eastern bloc.
Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said on Twitter on June 28, "Iran's defense theory needs an aerial restructuring, and cooperation with China is not just a tactical choice but a strategic shift."
For a long time, Beijing has preferred economic means over direct military intervention in the Middle East. However, if this anticipated transaction is approved, it will mark China's first sale of fighter jets to a country openly confronting Israel and facing threats of U.S. sanctions.
An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the U.S. Department of Defense states, "Beijing is entering a new phase of defense diplomacy, reshaping traditional power balances and challenging Washington's dominance in Middle East security."
Transaction Impact
The expected agreement between Tehran and Beijing could cast a shadow over the region and the world, prompting reactions from major powers. Are we witnessing a new phase of geopolitical tensions that may lead to hidden and open conflicts?
Although the Israeli government has not issued any direct official statement regarding the potential China-Iran transaction, Israeli intelligence agencies have expressed concerns about its impact.
The newspaper India Today reported that a former Israeli military intelligence official claimed the agreement "may involve the exchange of sensitive military information and technology, raising growing strategic concerns in Israel."
According to sources, the possession of J-10C fighter jets by Iran could weaken Israel's aerial superiority in future confrontations.
Meanwhile, the office of Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have not issued any official comments, with analysts interpreting this as Israel's attempt to avoid tension with Beijing, or to use media hype about the agreement to benefit Tehran.
The silence of the official side reflects Israel's unwillingness to openly confront China, especially amid rising global geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflicts between Washington and Beijing in multiple areas.
The possession of J-10C fighter jets by Iran could weaken Israel's aerial superiority in future confrontations (Shutterstock)
This agreement is also a true test of the U.S. policy toward China and Iran. If Washington remains silent, it may be accused of failing to impose strategic discipline on its adversaries. On the other hand, if it imposes sanctions on China, it could worsen its relationship with the world's second-largest economy.
In this context, Senator Jim Risch of the Republican Party stated during a Senate hearing in early July that the agreement "crosses the red line, and any Chinese entity providing operational technology that threatens our allies in the region must be punished."
Russia has long been Iran's main arms supplier, providing weapons such as Sukhoi fighters and air defense systems. Currently, Russia is anxiously watching China's entry into Iran's military market.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed concern at a security conference in Moscow about "rushing to arm regional forces outside the traditional understanding between Moscow and Tehran."
Iran's New Military Theory
Although the pillars of Iran's deterrent forces are still ballistic missiles and drones, the recent confrontation with Israel has sparked debates among Iranian military and media circles about whether it is necessary to modernize conventional offensive aerial capabilities.
Iranian officials and analysts believe that any potential agreement involving the purchase of advanced fighter jets (implied to be China's J-10C) would enhance Iran's ability to implement a new deterrence model and narrow the gap in aerial superiority, which has always been a weakness in Iran's military structure.
With the introduction of the aerial dimension in the China-Iran partnership, Tehran seems to be strengthening its position within the Eastern axis, taking advantage of the U.S.'s attention on other tense regions such as Ukraine and Taiwan.
In this context, the agreement is interpreted as a clear message to Washington: China's influence is no longer limited to infrastructure projects, but extends to hard deterrence tools.
Amid these dramatic changes, everyone's eyes are focused on the sky: Will the Chinese dragon soar over the Middle East and redraw the region's map, or will geopolitical challenges limit its ambitions?
If the J-10C transaction between China and Iran is realized, it will not only be a weapons deal, but also an announcement of a new stage in the Middle East's geopolitical layout.
Iran is seeking to compensate for military losses and restructure its air force theory, while China implies that it has become an important security actor in the region. For Israel and the United States, the challenge lies in how to respond to this development without triggering a new regional war.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526069321261662754/
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