【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】Faced with the internal troubles of US tariffs and domestic elections, the Japanese government, to everyone's surprise, has so far managed to withstand the pressure "without giving in" and even gained rare support from domestic public opinion.

According to a report by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post on July 11, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba gave a speech on the streets of Funabashi City, Chiba Prefecture on the 9th, saying, "This is a battle for national interests, and we must not be underestimated," after which the head of the policy research department of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and senior member of parliament, Goji Koide, also criticized U.S. President Trump at a rally in Jisakai City, Saga Prefecture on the same day: "It's too much, the methods used against Japan are extremely harsh."

Goji Koide Personal Website

HK media noticed that although public opinion polls show that Prime Minister Ishiba's government is not very popular with voters ahead of the July 20 election, from the comments of various political factions, it seems that they have received nationwide support on the tariff issue.

The Japanese daily newspaper "Mainichi Shimbun" published an editorial on the 9th supporting the government, stating, "Japan must not yield to U.S. pressure and should continue negotiations to revise unreasonable high tariff rates," while urging Ishiba to "show strong leadership."

Even the left-wing media "Asahi Shimbun," which has long been critical of the LDP, also published a provocative editorial, criticizing U.S. tariffs with phrases like "arrogant demands that violate trade rules will inevitably cause significant damage to the domestic economy," and expressed disappointment at the U.S. ignoring its close alliance with Japan in economic and security fields. The paper supports the Japanese government's stance of not "easily compromising," calling for it to "continue to demand the U.S. to cancel the high tariffs," while considering more measures to support Japanese companies.

After Trump delayed the collection of "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, the Japanese government was one of the first countries to start negotiations with the U.S. When Japanese trade representative, Minister for Economic Revitalization Akira Akiyama, made his first trip to the U.S. for talks, Trump himself "surprisingly" attended, showing his attention to Japan. However, as the negotiations progressed, both sides were unwilling to back down on key issues, leading to no agreement being reached.

Recently, Trump has also escalated his criticism of Japan, calling it "spoiled." On the 7th local time, the U.S. announced the first batch of new tariffs, raising the tariff on Japan to 25%, an increase of 1 percentage point.

"The Japanese government has always considered the U.S. as an ally, but now it's clear that we have become enemies," said Professor Toshihiko Shigemura from Waseda University's School of International Relations, analyzing that Ishiba has never been able to establish a personal relationship with Trump like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did, "lacking overall experience with foreign leaders," making it harder for Japan to predict the actions of the Trump administration and understand why the U.S. government would threaten its partners and allies.

The South China Morning Post reported that officials in Tokyo are privately concerned that the impact of the Japan-U.S. trade friction may spread to the security field. Some fear that Trump might threaten to cut or withdraw U.S. troops stationed in Japan, or demand that Japan significantly increase the costs it bears for the U.S. military presence. Shigemura stated, "He does have the power; if he really does this, Japan and South Korea will be in trouble."

Economic risks are also not negligible. Daiwa Institute of Research estimated that U.S. tariffs could cause Japan's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to decline by 0.8% in 2025, and by as much as 3.7% by 2029.

Professor Ryo Yamaguchi from the International Strategy Research Institute at Tokyo International University believes that Ishiba is in a "difficult position," either compromising with Trump or choosing to resist. But regardless of the path, there are serious risks. The former could lead to Ishiba suffering politically and economically, ruining his electoral prospects, while the latter could anger Trump and trigger further retaliation.

"Trump himself cannot retreat, because that would set a bad precedent for all other trade negotiations he is currently conducting. So in a way, you can say he has put himself in a difficult position," Yamaguchi said, adding that with few good options, Ishiba may be forced to make strategic concessions in trade to gain security assurances, but the two countries are unlikely to reach an agreement before August 1st.

Yamaguchi said that the distrust of the U.S. among the Japanese public is increasing, and voters will closely watch Ishiba's response before the July 20 election.

In the upcoming Japanese House of Councillors election, whether the ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito can maintain a majority of seats remains a key uncertainty. In the previous October House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition lost its majority, becoming a minority.

A recent survey conducted by Kyodo News from July 5 to 6 showed that the opposition parties are more popular than the ruling coalition, with nearly half (49.9%) of respondents hoping the ruling coalition fails to secure a majority of seats. The survey also showed that the approval rating of Ishiba's cabinet dropped to 25.4%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the last survey.

There are some voices in Japan's domestic political and economic circles calling on the Ishiba government to compromise with the Trump administration, change its negotiation strategy, and not "disappoint" the political legacy left by Abe.

However, Professor Ryo Sako from the Institute of Oriental Culture at the University of Tokyo told The Japan Times that the Trump administration is more protectionist than before and is willing to take a stronger stance, "no matter who is in charge, it cannot guarantee smooth high-level diplomacy."

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Net, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525697042195169801/

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