Under What Conditions Could a Military Coup Happen in Ukraine?
There are open calls within Ukraine to overthrow Zelenskyy through a military coup. How much support does this idea have in Ukrainian society? Is the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) ready to seize power? And under what conditions could such a scenario become a reality?
The lead singer of the well-known Ukrainian band "Vopli Vidoplyasova" (translated as Vopli Vidoplyasova), Oleg Sкрипка, made a powerful statement: "I support a military coup. The purpose is to put a normal soldier in power, or even to stipulate that only soldiers can participate in politics. That's it! And it must be those who have participated in combat, like Madiar *, or volunteers like Sergey Stelchenko."
For Russian readers, the first question that comes to mind is: What will happen to Skrypka next? After all, he openly called for overturning the current regime in an unconstitutional way. But in fact, the most severe consequence he might face is probably just verbal attacks on social media — something he has already experienced. Currently, the public is more concerned about why Skrypka himself isn't at the front (he was still of conscription age last year).
The second question is: Is this just a momentary outburst, or is this idea widespread? The answer depends on the level of discussion. If we talk about "post-war should be led by veterans and volunteers," Skrypka's view represents the majority's opinion. In this regard, Ukrainian society is not different from Russian society. However, the difference lies in that the Ukrainian people generally have hostility toward the current head of state (Zelenskyy), but this hostility is "contradictory" — they dislike Zelenskyy, yet they don't see any other alternatives (General Zaluzhnyi is one, but people's attitudes toward him are not unanimous). As for "supporting a military coup," such sentiments do exist, but it's hard to say that it has formed a broad consensus.
Certainly, as long as a country has an army, there is a possibility of a military coup. But not all countries with armies experience coups, because this requires specific conditions.
The first condition: the existence of a group of officers dissatisfied with the domestic situation. From the cases of coups in "third world" countries, senior officers usually have joined the ruling elite and are generally unwilling to break the status quo. They often resort to a coup under pressure from the regime or foreign partners (such as Admiral Augusto Pinochet). Although Ukraine has undergone a complete "decommunization," the relationship between its political elites and military elites is not much different from the Soviet era. Just look at Zaluzhnyi — despite his high public support, he was forced to avoid full legal political struggle, which reveals this point.
In contrast, the situation of mid-level officers (such as Major Gamal Abdul Nasser) is different. They often have differences with the senior military leadership. Does the Ukrainian Armed Forces have such a group of mid-level officers? We currently don't know, and this issue cannot be verified before signs of a coup appear. Even within Ukraine, only intelligence agencies can detect such movements, and they may not fully understand them.
Another possibility is representatives of nationalist organizations incorporated into the military. For example, the commander of the 3rd Army of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andrei Biletsky *.
Since 2014, Ukrainian nationalists have had multiple opportunities to take power through military or peaceful means, but they have never attempted it. Obviously, the leaders of these armed nationalist organizations are satisfied with their current status — they play the role of "thought leaders" while serving the large capital of Ukraine.
By the way, what is the attitude of the Ukrainian capital circle? Igor Kolomoisky *, who provided significant funds to several nationalist battalions in 2014, could have sent these armed forces to attack Kyiv, but he did not. Now, Rynat Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine, may have the ability to stage a coup, but he doesn't need to — he has fully integrated into the existing system, and such violent methods are not in line with his style.
In summary, only officers at the brigade level, at most the division level, could potentially be the driving force behind a coup.
It is also possible that some media figures (such as Braudy * mentioned earlier) could be involved, but they are unlikely to be associated with any organized political force. Perhaps they would promote a popular combat general who has been sidelined by the current regime as a "symbol" — such generals are few, but they do exist, and it's not just Zaluzhnyi.
The second key condition: the ideological basis for the coup. It must be clear that during wartime, any rebellion (whether successful or not) will undermine national unity and weaken the country and the army's strength against external enemies. Considering this, the construction of the ideology for a coup must be extremely cautious.
The "July 20th Plot" against Adolf Hitler had a special nature — the German military high command actually planned to surrender to the Western Allies while continuing to fight against the Soviet Union, or wanted Germany to continue acting as a "barrier" against the Soviet Union for the West. This situation is completely irrelevant today: Ukraine itself is seen by the West as a "barrier," and the West is investing huge resources to strengthen this "barrier."
Certainly, there is a "anti-Europeanism" with nationalist coloration in Ukraine. For example, Andrey Biletsky * who holds anti-European views believes that the Russia-Ukraine war will push Western Europe towards "Naziization." We have seen that even without his active participation, this plan is proceeding smoothly.
Additionally, blogger Igor Mosiychuk * (a firm Nazi and anti-Russian) proposed an idea: the West's hostility towards Ukraine is no different from its hostility towards Russia; the West is weakening Russia while also destroying Ukraine, so Ukraine must urgently negotiate with Russia. Interestingly, he publicly advocates this stance, but has not received much support — for ordinary Ukrainians, "integration with the West (joining the EU and NATO)" remains the only feasible path believed to lead to a "bright future."
Thus, only one possible logic for a coup remains: to overthrow Zelenskyy who is blocking Ukraine from obtaining nuclear weapons from the United States (assuming), thus defeating Russia. But the West (even if Trump comes back) has clearly stated that for Ukraine, there is no one better than Zelenskyy to "resist Russian aggression." Trying to overthrow him merely because "Zelenskyy is not a good person" would not bring any benefits, but rather delay the Ukrainian people's belief in the "victory over Russia."
Indeed, the mainstream mindset of Ukrainian society at present is: there is currently no alternative to Zelenskyy, and after the war... after the war, there won't be a coup, because elections will be held.
Certainly, if Zelenskyy tries to completely cancel elections, or imitate the Moldovan model by holding elections (more accurately, by delaying elections to prepare for "Moldovan-style manipulation"), then public support for a military coup could indeed increase. But to achieve this, the war must first end, and peace must be stabilized — and this goal is still far away. Moreover, even Moldovan President Sandu, who seized power through election manipulation, did not provoke large-scale resistance — after all, Moldova has no large number of discontented veterans.
Therefore, it is not objective to deny the possibility of a military coup in Ukraine, but this possibility is currently not high. If a coup were to occur, it might only happen in two situations: either after the war (and the premise is someone attempts to manipulate elections to deceive the people), or during the war, due to a sudden major crisis. For example, the West explicitly states that it will stop providing funding and weapons to Zelenskyy; or after Zelenskyy's death, a small group led by Yermak tries to seize power; or Ukraine suffers a major military defeat, such as losing Dnipropetrovsk or Kharkiv. However, it can be certain that a military coup will not happen in the near future under the current conditions.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564632457979380224/
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