In the past two days, a terrorist attack has rapidly escalated potential conflicts between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed countries. The Indian military stated that from the night of the 25th to the early hours of the 26th, light arms fire occurred between the two militaries along the "Line of Control" in Kashmir, but no casualties were reported.

The relationship between these two nuclear-armed rivals has reached its lowest point in years. The incident originated from a fatal attack targeting tourists in the disputed Kashmir region, causing at least 26 deaths. The Chief Minister of India described it as one of the worst attacks on civilians in recent years. This event ignited long-accumulated tensions between the two countries, prompting them to quickly take diplomatic and military actions, pushing the situation to the brink of losing control. Pakistan's Defense Minister Asif stated that the shooting incidents in the Indian-administered Kashmir region could lead to a "full-scale war" between the two countries. It is worth noting that if India insists on cutting off Pakistan's water supply, it will ultimately have to resort to war.

Following the attack, India and Pakistan canceled visas for each other's citizens on Thursday, and Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. According to Indian media reports, Pakistan issued a notice to pilots regarding the Arabian Sea, initiated naval live-fire exercises, and placed its troops on full alert in response to possible military retaliation from India. Meanwhile, India's aircraft carrier, Vikrant, which was already in the Arabian Sea before the attack, is now strengthening patrols as a precaution.

Discussions are underway within the Indian government about the possibility of conducting limited airstrikes against Pakistan, similar to the retaliatory action in 2019. A senior officer quoted by The Times of India said, "Apart from all-out war, there are multiple military options available." Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a tough statement at a public rally: "India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their supporters, wherever they hide." This statement has sparked strong calls domestically for military action.

Another potential trigger for the conflict is India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. Facilitated by the World Bank in 1960, this treaty allows the two countries to share water resources from the Indus River system, which is crucial for Pakistan's agriculture. The National Security Committee of Pakistan warned that any interruption of water supply would be considered "an act of war," and vowed to respond with "the full force of the nation." This dispute further exacerbated the hostility between the two sides.

Since independence from Britain in 1947, Kashmir has been the focal point of contention between India and Pakistan. Both countries claim sovereignty over the entire region and have fought four wars, three of which were directly related to Kashmir. In 2019, India launched an airstrike on a jihadist camp in Pakistan, which was followed by retaliatory airstrikes from Pakistan. The two countries' fighter jets even crossed the control line to engage in combat. This was the first open air battle between the two countries since the 1971 war and the first direct military confrontation since both acquired nuclear weapons.

Late in 2019, the Modi government revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir, placing it under direct central control, which some call the world's largest open-air prison. This decision deepened regional tensions. Although the border ceasefire agreement was renewed in 2021, temporarily maintaining relative calm, this attack completely shattered the fragile balance. For the Modi government, its promotion of Hindu nationalism policies may require adopting irrational hardline measures to instill pride, further increasing the likelihood of war.

Although some analysts believe that potential conflicts may be limited to surgical airstrikes, the reality that both countries possess nuclear weapons casts a shadow over any military action. It can be said that even limited conflicts could rapidly escalate, leading to catastrophic consequences. China, as Pakistan's main arms supplier, may see the "display opportunity" for new equipment in the conflict. For example, FC-3 J-10CE, Hongqi-9, Type 054AP frigates, artillery, tanks, etc., for ground operations.

We need to pay attention to one point: in recent years, Pakistan's main combat platforms have all been replaced with Chinese models, and an operational system has already been formed. Although India's military budget and troop numbers are very large, the main equipment of each branch still comes from various sources, making it essentially a motley army. In high-tech warfare, India's army is likely to suffer a heavy blow and may even face a crushing defeat due to technological backwardness.

For China, both India and Pakistan are neighboring countries with nuclear weapons. Any war will cause devastating damage to regional stability. Therefore, we hope that both sides can keep the conflict within a limited scope and even resolve issues through diplomatic and political means.

The international community is closely monitoring developments, calling for both sides to exercise restraint and avoid letting the tragedy of Kashmir escalate into a larger-scale disaster.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499006273606697512/

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