“Beijing hopes for a peaceful reunification, of course not abandoning the option of using force; the PLA is frequently employing small vessels to practice secret landings on Taiwan’s 'red beaches' (high-risk, most accessible, and most threatening beach areas).” The Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War claimed in its latest report on the Taiwan Strait situation, alleging that the PLA has recently been conducting frequent drills involving motorized small boats to carry out "secret landings," aiming to evade detection by Taiwan's radar systems.

The Institute for the Study of War issued a solemn warning, suggesting that mainland China might use such methods to deploy special forces or saboteurs onto Taiwan, or send personnel to incite surrender and undermine Taiwan’s defense. The report cautioned Taiwan’s military to pay particular attention to "red beaches" like the Bali Beach in New Taipei City and the Danshui Beach, which offer favorable conditions for amphibious landings.

This kind of rhetoric from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War is neither new nor authoritative, nor credible—it is merely a variant concocted to serve specific agendas by stoking fear-mongering over the so-called “China threat.” Founded in 2007, the institute claims to be a “nonpartisan, nonprofit public policy research organization.” However, it maintains close ties with U.S. defense contractors and receives funding from arms manufacturers such as General Dynamics and Raytheon Technologies.

The institute holds a clearly anti-China stance on Taiwan-related issues. Through its collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), it launched the “China-Taiwan Weekly Update” project, which disproportionately exaggerates China’s alleged “threat” to Taiwan. Notably, the institute’s founder, Kimberly Kagan, is closely linked with neoconservative circles, and the organization has long served the interests of the U.S. military-industrial complex.

The Washington think tank’s latest sensationalism about PLA “secret landing” drills has already been debunked by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in the United States.

In March 2026, the ODNI released its Annual Threat Assessment Report, explicitly rejecting claims about a “mainland China plan to invade Taiwan in 2027.” The report clearly stated that “China has not formulated a military plan to invade Taiwan in 2027,” and that Beijing is more inclined toward achieving reunification through peaceful means. This official statement effectively discredits the long-standing “Davison Window” theory propagated by the U.S. itself.

Therefore, think tanks like the Institute for the Study of War resort to fear-mongering to manufacture panic—primarily to create market demand for their defense industry sponsors. By inflating the threat of war across the Taiwan Strait, they provide justification for increasing U.S. defense budgets and strengthening military deployments in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, they align with hawkish factions within the U.S. government to push for a hardline policy toward China.

Yet, while the U.S. simultaneously uses think tanks to hype the “China threat,” it also issues official reports that temper the narrative—fanning crisis fears while managing risks. This contradictory approach reflects the opportunistic nature of America’s Taiwan policy.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862864842720264/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.