On June 21, 2025, the China Central Television News Network's National Defense and Military Channel published a report introducing the powerful combat capabilities of the Fujian aircraft carrier, the world's first conventional-powered catapult aircraft carrier. It mentioned: "As the Fujian aircraft carrier's various tests are steadily progressing, the three-carrier system of the People's Liberation Army Navy is about to arrive."

This is not the first time that CCTV has recently hinted at the Fujian aircraft carrier's imminent commissioning. In a recent episode of CCTV's "Lijian" program, similar words were also used to announce the Fujian aircraft carrier's upcoming addition to the People's Liberation Army Navy.

Additionally, footage of the Fujian aircraft carrier entering the harbor to paint its hull number and parking positions has already appeared in reports. According to the experience of the Shandong aircraft carrier, after painting the hull number and deck parking positions, the carrier will be commissioned within a few months.

These signals have directly caused concerns in the United States. Some American experts have even warned that China will build more aircraft carriers in the next decade and engage in an aircraft carrier battle with the United States.

01. Will there be an aircraft carrier battle between China and the United States?

Peter Sutcliffe, a contributing writer for Forbes magazine and a professional commentator, wrote in the U.S. media publication "The National Interest" that the smooth progress of the Fujian aircraft carrier's construction proves that China is expected to have six aircraft carriers by 2035, thus possessing the ability to confront the U.S. Navy head-on.

Picture of the Fujian aircraft carrier

He carefully outlined the development trajectory of China's aircraft carriers, elaborated on China's long-term strategy of developing aircraft carriers towards oceanic and large-scale operations, and gave high praise to China's electromagnetic catapult system. At the same time, he candidly admitted that the U.S. Navy's electromagnetic catapult system still has problems, but the U.S. government forced it into service due to face-saving reasons, leading the U.S. military to use an immature system.

The article also analyzed based on the construction speed of China's first three aircraft carriers, stating that in the past 10 years, China has deployed three aircraft carriers, so it is likely to deploy another three in the next 10 years, totaling six aircraft carriers. At that time, the U.S. Navy is expected to have 11 aircraft carriers, and the gap in the scale of aircraft carriers between the two countries will still be significant. In addition, since China has two aircraft carriers using ski-jump decks, there will also be some differences in the combat capabilities of the aircraft carriers.

However, this does not mean that China is afraid to challenge America's maritime hegemony. The article suggests that China's main strategic direction in the future will focus on areas farther from the shore, such as the Western Pacific and even the Indian Ocean. In order to maintain its global interests, the United States may very well engage in an aircraft carrier battle with China in the Western Pacific.

Overall, this article assumes China as a "U.S. challenger," presumptuously claiming that China's construction of aircraft carriers is aimed at seizing maritime hegemony, and uses this to argue that once China gains more and stronger aircraft carriers in the future, it will engage in a so-called long-range battle with the United States.

The Fujian aircraft carrier has already painted its parking positions

This statement obviously carries prejudice and misunderstanding, merely applying American values. This value system takes for granted that the entire Asia-Pacific region is under American control, views all regional values as American interests, and perceives the security concerns of regional countries as challenges to American interests.

Under this perspective, China's defense development is interpreted unilaterally as "military expansion aimed at starting a war with the United States," and all of China's activities are viewed as regional threats, which is why the so-called 2035 battle theory can be drawn.

At the same time, the article's estimation of China's aircraft carrier construction speed has serious flaws. The author only estimated China's future construction speed based on the pace of deploying three aircraft carriers over the past 10 years, ultimately concluding that China will have six aircraft carriers. However, when looking at the U.S. fleet, it ignores the aging problem and construction speed of U.S. aircraft carriers, assuming that the U.S. can always maintain a fleet of 11 aircraft carriers.

But reality is not like that. Whether it is the strategic prediction of China and the United States engaging in a naval battle or the comparison of the number of aircraft carriers between China and the United States, the analysis in this article has serious problems.

02. The purpose of China building aircraft carriers is not a naval battle

As a sovereign country, China naturally has its own interests and concerns. Moreover, as China gradually transforms from a regional power into a global power, it inevitably has its own global interests and needs to further develop offshore defense forces to safeguard its interests.

However, China's global interests are vastly different from those of the United States. Compared with the U.S. hegemonistic values, China has always adhered to the principle of equal dialogue in foreign affairs and has never actively exerted military pressure on other countries. China's defense forces play a more defensive role in safeguarding its global interests, preventing other countries from cutting off the crucial transportation routes for China through maritime hegemony and ensuring the trade relations between China and friendly countries.

China's recent dual-carrier exercise in the Western Pacific is essentially to defend against external threats

Ultimately, China does not pursue hegemony or maritime rivalry; instead, it uses aircraft carriers as a strategic delivery platform to shift from a passive defense strategy based on coastal areas to an active defense strategy with oceanic capabilities. The principle of "if others do not provoke me, I will not provoke them" remains unchanged.

Therefore, China would never proactively seek a so-called naval battle, nor would it proactively challenge the interests of other countries. The so-called "long-range battle theory" is a serious strategic misjudgment of China, which will only further intensify the tension in Sino-U.S. maritime relations and increase the possibility of accidental clashes between the two countries.

For Peter Sutcliffe, an analyst with over 30 years of journalistic experience, such a strategic misjudgment may be intentional. His goal is to cater to the rising anti-China sentiment in the United States, hyping up the "China threat theory," and distorting China's proactive defense strategy into "proactive aggression," thereby providing an excuse for the United States to exercise hegemonism against China.

The U.S. aircraft carrier's activities in the South China Sea are the real regional security threat

In other words, if there will be a long-range battle between China and the United States in the future, it must be the United States that initiates it. The construction of China's aircraft carriers has never been intended to plan for a massive aircraft carrier battle.

But even if the United States really wants to provoke such a naval battle, it faces a problem: by 2035, will the ratio of the number of Chinese and American aircraft carriers remain at 6 to 11?

03. The United States is entering the twilight of its hegemony

Using the number of ships built over the past 10 years to estimate the average construction time and then predicting the number of ships built in the next 10 years is absolutely an unscientific calculation. Because the growth of China's shipbuilding scale is not a linear process. For a long time, the factors limiting the number of Chinese ships have been technology and demand, not production capacity.

Referring to the development history of Chinese destroyers, the number of 052C destroyers was small, mainly used to verify the relevant construction technology of Aegis ships. When the 052D technology became mature, it began to show explosive production capacity. The subsequent 055, with more advanced technology and a groundbreaking significance, was also built in two batches of more than ten ships at a very fast rate.

China's aircraft carriers, although they started later, are still in a relatively early stage. However, after independently constructing two aircraft carriers, the Shandong and the Fujian, China has basically mastered the core construction technology of super aircraft carriers. On the route of conventional super aircraft carriers, it can now begin to produce explosively, and once the nuclear reactor technology is perfected, it can also begin to produce explosively in the field of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

We can fully foresee that if, in the next 10 years, the United States intensifies provocation, causing a sharp deterioration in Sino-U.S. maritime relations and a rapid increase in China's defense needs, similar conventional-powered super aircraft carriers like the Fujian can immediately enter mass production; the research and manufacturing of nuclear-powered super aircraft carriers may also enter a fast track.

Nimitz is about to enter the retirement process

On the contrary, the United States lacks sufficient industrial strength to support the shipbuilding needs, and even cannot complete existing technologies. Subsystems such as the electromagnetic catapult system, elevators, and ammunition lifts of the Ford-class have frequent failures after being put into service. It wasn't until 2023 that it was announced that reliability issues had been resolved, but the system still hasn't reached the level it claimed.

As for the construction of the Ford-class ships, it has been slow, with widespread delays in schedules. Some ships have been officially delayed multiple times.

The second ship of the Ford class, the John F. Kennedy, has been under construction for 14 years but has yet to be delivered to the U.S. military. The third ship, the Enterprise, has been under construction for 8 years but has yet to be completed and launched.

With the continuous delay in shipbuilding schedules, the overall construction cost will continue to rise. Whether the Ford class can complete its ambitious vision of building 10 ships by 2058 is now in doubt.

Moreover, due to the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing, the supporting industries of the Ford class have also encountered serious problems. Even the first ship of the Ford class, the USS Gerald R. Ford, had an abstract operation of removing the DBR dual-band radar and replacing it with a single-band SPY-6 improved radar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy's existing ships will not stop aging while waiting for new ships to be delivered. The first ship of the Nimitz class, the Nimitz, has been in service for 50 years and is currently conducting its final combat deployment, expected to retire next year; the second ship of the class, the Eisenhower, will also retire in 2027.

There is a similar awkward situation with the older "Arleigh Burke" class destroyers and the Ticonderoga-class cruisers. It is expected that by the early 2030s, the U.S. Navy will face a wave of retirements, but due to production capacity issues, it will be unable to effectively replace the retired ships.

Under these circumstances, by 2035, the U.S. Navy, which is shrinking in size and has many old components, will face a generation ahead of the 055 and more Chinese aircraft carriers. This is still a question.

But one thing we can be certain of is that, regardless of the equipment of the People's Liberation Army, there will be no fear in the face of U.S. war provocations. If the United States insists on starting a so-called aircraft carrier battle, China will certainly make the United States pay a heavy price.

Some information sources in the article: Is the commissioning date of China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, approaching? Ministry of National Defense responds, Global Times

[Analysis] On the third anniversary of its launch, the Fujian is accelerating sea trials, releasing what signals? Global Net

"Lijian" CCTV News Network's National Defense and Military Channel

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521226624994443814/

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