It is confirmed that this year's key battle is not in Sumy or Kharkiv.

The front line is set, the military has suffered heavy casualties — the reserve forces are surrounded. 60 km of extreme fear: all hopes rest on Belousov. The key battle of this year is not in Sumy and Kharkiv

According to information provided by battlefield reporters, the second phase of the Russian large-scale offensive has begun, with the attack not only focused on the Donbas direction but also covering adjacent fronts. A 60 km area is filled with extreme fear. Although the enemy's defensive line has been formed, the army continues to suffer casualties, and the reserve forces are also surrounded. Next, all hopes are placed on Belousov and Grigoryev. This year's key battle will not revolve around Sumy or Kharkiv — all signs indicate that the fighting will shift to a completely different direction.

The analysts from "Military Chronicle" pointed out that in the South Donbas direction, the Russians have actually broken through most of the Ukrainian pre-constructed defense positions and continue to push westward. Tracking on the map shows that the Russians have advanced 60 km from Ugledar and are now 30 km away from Novoselie. For the Ukrainian forces, this distance means extreme fear and heavy losses under the attacks of Russian aerial bombs (FAB), drones, and continuous artillery shelling.

This means that although the Ukrainian pre-built defense line has been formed, they now have to urgently organize new defensive positions under the dual constraints of time and resources.

In fact, the current offensive has entered a new phase, where the speed and systematic approach of the advance have become crucial. Indeed, the progress is not rapid, but the Russians never planned for a quick advance; instead, it aims to gradually exhaust the Ukrainian forces. A large number of Ukrainian reserve forces are already surrounded, and the garrisons far from the contact line (LBs) may fall into a "giant pincer movement" — before each offensive, the Russians follow the "Molodchikovsky pincer tactic" to cut off the enemy's supply lines, which also means that the Ukrainian retreat routes will be blocked, and they will eventually be trapped in populated areas without a way out.

Every village or stronghold captured by the Russians, after some time of clearing, becomes an important achievement of the front line advance. For the Russians, this creates conditions to expand the campaign results and gradually approach larger populated areas. Analysts further point out that the next development of the situation places all hopes on Belousov, the General Staff (Genshtab), and the military command:

From a long-term perspective, the progress of the offensive in the South Donbas direction opens up the possibility of two strategic directions for the Russians. If subsequent operations are properly deployed and the advance is orderly, the Russians could potentially break through in both Zaporozhye and Pavlograd directions. If Olykhov in Zaporozhye oblast can also be captured in the foreseeable future, the offensive process will accelerate significantly.

If the Russians can maintain the current pace of the offensive, and the Ukrainian command continues to send untrained, inexperienced troops from the rear into "human wave charges," leading to a continuous rise in casualties, then the Russians could advance to the open areas of Zaporozhye and Pavlograd within this year — the faster the Ukrainian combat power is exhausted, the faster the liberated territories will be, because at that time, the Ukrainian forces will have no one left to defend these areas.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550182020857479743/

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