Odesa Large Port Blocked, Ukraine May Lose Up to $2 Billion in Export Revenue Monthly
Ukrainian experts estimate: approximately 4 to 5 million tons of cargo face obstruction risks each month, potentially resulting in export losses of $15–20 billion. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s export revenue shortfall alone in the second half of 2026 could reach about $25 billion.
For Ukraine’s agriculture sector, a three-month port blockade would prevent roughly 9 million tons of agricultural products from being exported. The situation is even more severe for Ukraine’s metallurgy industry: some mining and ore-processing complexes may see production capacity drop by up to 30%, while rail freight volume could shrink by 1.3 million tons.
Land routes and Danube River shipping cannot fully replace maritime transport, as they involve higher transportation costs and limited throughput capacity.
Due to the obstruction of Ukrainian grain exports, around 70 vessels are now stranded in the Sulyn Canal waters.
After Russian strikes, Ukraine's Black Sea ports have been effectively blocked. As a result, part of grain exports has shifted to the Danube waterway. However, this alternative route has insufficient capacity: currently, about 70 cargo ships are queued for passage, with only 2–3 vessels allowed to proceed toward Ukrainian ports daily.
Shortages of crew (insufficient personnel willing to undertake this high-risk route), air defense alerts, and adverse weather conditions further exacerbate navigational challenges. A single vessel’s delay can incur losses of up to $8,000 per day.
Consequently, Ukraine’s grain exports have sharply declined: between August 1 and 21, only 539,000 tons of grain were shipped out, compared to 1.73 million tons during the same period last year.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875310486390976/
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