【Military Second Plane】 Author: Feng Yu
According to a report by the American media outlet "NSJ" on August 12, one key point that makes China's J-20 worth fearing has been overlooked, which is its current production speed.
This speed is backed by a qualitative leap in manufacturing techniques in China's aviation industry in recent years.
Traditional aircraft production lines are similar to car manufacturing, where an aircraft is advanced from the nose to the tail in sequence, with workstations connected sequentially, meaning each aircraft must wait for the previous process to be completed before moving to the next stage.
However, the current pulse assembly is different. It breaks down the production process into multiple fixed workstations, with multiple aircraft advancing in batches synchronously. After completing one link, they collectively pulse into the next workstation.
This approach has two benefits: first, equipment and personnel remain in high-load operation, without any waiting gaps; second, the switching between processes is more efficient, allowing multiple airframes to be processed simultaneously, shortening the production cycle of individual aircraft.
This model was first matured in the production of China's commercial large aircraft, and now it has been introduced into military aircraft production, combined with a fully domestic supply chain of components and engines, greatly increasing delivery speed.
It is estimated that the J-20 can now steadily achieve an annual production of 100 to 120 units, with potential for further acceleration.
This means that China can expand its current fleet of over 200 J-20s to a scale of 1,000 units within less than 10 years.
This production efficiency and sustainability are sufficient to reshape the aerial power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region in the coming decades.
(Foreign media screenshot)
Why is production speed alone enough to make the U.S. fearful?
The reason is that modern air combat competition has shifted from simple performance comparisons to comprehensive confrontation.
In high-intensity conflicts, even the most advanced fighter jets will suffer losses, and the ability to quickly replenish losses directly determines the control of air superiority in the battlefield.
The F-22 production line has already been closed, and although the F-35 is still being produced, the output needs to be distributed between the U.S. and its allies, with limited quantities left for the U.S. military itself.
If China's annual new fifth-generation jet production approaches or exceeds the total output of the U.S. military, then once entering a prolonged attrition war, China can maintain a high sortie rate through rapid replenishment.
To put it simply, if a war lasts for several years like Ukraine, the U.S. would not be able to sustain it against China.
Additionally, high capacity means China no longer needs to deploy fighters in a piecemeal fashion across different battlefields, but can simultaneously deploy stealth fighter squadrons in the East China Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Western Pacific, forming multi-point deterrence and forcing the U.S. into a dilemma in troop deployment.
Plus, the continuous upgrades of the J-20 in stealth, beyond-visual-range combat, and information warfare systems mean that once the quantity surpasses the U.S., the U.S. will have to face a terrifying reality: both quantity and quality are inferior.
(U.S. fighter jet)
The current U.S. fifth-generation jet force is centered around the F-22 and F-35.
Since its commissioning in 2005, the F-22 has only a total of 195 units produced, including 8 prototypes, with 187 operational models. However, due to high maintenance costs and aging, the current number of active units is approximately 165, with the rest used for training or storage.
The F-35 series began large-scale deliveries in 2011. As of 2025, the global delivery has exceeded 1,200 units, with the U.S. military branches owning about 600 to 650 units in total.
Thus, the total number of active fifth-generation jets in the U.S. military is approximately 760 to 815 units.
In terms of production, Lockheed Martin's F-35 production line currently produces about 150 to 170 units per year globally. However, the U.S. self-use quantity is affected by budget and production rhythm, and under stable conditions, it is about 70 units per year. If Congress increases funding, it could reach up to nearly 100 units.
The main issues with the U.S. military's production capacity are threefold: first, the F-22's shutdown prevents the expansion of the high-end air superiority fleet; second, the F-35's production must cater to allied orders; third, the cost and maintenance cycle are long, leading to fluctuations in availability.
Meanwhile, the U.S. sixth-generation aircraft project is still in the research and development phase, and even in the best scenario, it may take until the 2030s to form initial combat capability. This means that for a considerable period, the U.S. military must rely on fifth-generation jets to maintain numerical superiority. Now, China's fifth-generation jet numbers will surpass those of the U.S., naturally causing fear.
(J-35)
China currently produces 100 to 120 J-20s annually, while the J-35 has entered low-rate batch production, with an estimated annual production of about 30 to 50 units. With the Fujian Aircraft Carrier and subsequent carriers becoming combat-effective, the production of the carrier-based and land-based versions of the J-35 is expected to rise to 60 to 100 units.
This way, the combined annual production of the two types of fifth-generation jets could reach or exceed 200 units by around 2027.
Even with additional purchases, the U.S. military's annual increase in fifth-generation jets is unlikely to exceed 100 units.
Based on this trend, China is expected to catch up with the U.S. military's total in 2032, given the combination of China's baseline production capacity and the U.S. stable production capacity.
If China enters a full-scale production mode, while the U.S. maintains a low procurement level, the time to catch up could be as early as 2031.
Once this trend forms, the U.S. military's numerical advantage will become irreversible because China's production line and supply chain are completely domestic, whereas the U.S. military's increased production capacity is constrained by budget, allied orders, and the actual carrying capacity of the industrial base.
More importantly, China's production advantage will extend to sixth-generation aircraft as technology evolves, putting the U.S. at a disadvantage right from the start of the next generation competition.
(J-20)
Reaching parity in fifth-generation jet numbers with the U.S. means that China can maintain large-scale stealth fighter formations in multiple strategic directions, no longer relying on concentrating forces in local battlefields to gain short-term advantages, but instead possessing continuous, distributed air superiority capabilities.
This will significantly enhance the depth of the anti-access/area denial system, making the control of airspace inside and outside the First Island Chain more favorable for China.
Strategically, parity in numbers will weaken the U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific, forcing it to reassess the risks and costs of deploying aircraft carriers, bombers, and long-range strike forces.
Long-term, stable mass production will drive technological accumulation in key areas such as aero engines, composite materials, and avionics systems, creating transferable industrial capabilities, providing ready-made production foundations for sixth-generation aircraft, stealth bombers, and high-end unmanned combat platforms.
Therefore, reaching parity in fifth-generation jet numbers with the U.S. is not just a number game, nor is it about competing with the U.S. to see who is better. It is a strategic turning point for China's air force to achieve a comprehensive superiority.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537971364590895642/
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