Words are spoken without intent, but the listener takes them to heart. On July 28 this year, CCTV's military channel "accidentally" revealed a piece of information in its military news that caused widespread attention in South Korea (however, U.S. and Japanese media generally "stayed silent"). The report stated that a unit of the Chinese Air Force (suspected to be the "Wang Hai Squadron")'s J-20 fighter jet had flown through the Tsushima Strait into the Sea of Japan during a mission. The key point of this news is that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have deployed a large number of radars around the Tsushima Strait, but none have ever reported detecting the presence of the J-20. Especially in Japan, the Japan Self-Defense Forces are known as the "official photographers" of the Chinese military, tracking and photographing any Chinese aircraft or ships passing through the straits between Japanese islands (not just the Tsushima Strait; the most common passage for China in recent years has been through the Miyako Strait and the Osumi Strait), but Japan has never reported detecting the J-20. Do you believe the J-20 has never crossed the Japanese island chain?

(Analysis by South Korean video blogger "Shahr Military Research Institute" on the J-20 flying over the Tsushima Strait)

(The Eurasia Times in India reporting on the J-20 flying over the Tsushima Strait)

The Tsushima Strait lies between Japan and South Korea. In the middle of this sea area is a large island: Tsushima Island in Japan. The strait between Tsushima Island and Busan, South Korea, is called the Busan Strait, while the strait between Tsushima Island and Iki Island in Japan is the Tsushima Strait. Together they are called the Korea Strait. The Tsushima Strait extends from northeast to southwest, approximately 222 kilometers long, with the narrowest point being only 41.6 kilometers, making it geographically very important. It is a vital route for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea to enter the Sea of Japan. In recent years, joint military exercises between China and Russia often involve Chinese and Russian aircraft and warships passing through the Tsushima Strait. If North Korean vessels want to travel between their east and west coasts, they also need to pass through the Tsushima Strait (or the Busan Strait). Therefore, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have deployed a large number of radar systems nearby to monitor the movements of all military and civilian ships and aircraft of China, Russia, and North Korea. However, they have never detected the J-20.

(Location of the Tsushima Strait)

Regarding the information disclosed by CCTV's military news, numerous mainstream media and independent media outlets in South Korea have reported on it, and their attitude is basically "don't underestimate China's military strength" and "South Korea can no longer be arrogant." A South Korean video blogger named "Shahr Military Research Institute" recently commented on the event of the J-20 crossing the Tsushima Strait, and his views are representative. He revealed that General Kenneth Wilsbach of the U.S. Air Force once mentioned in a briefing that the U.S. E-3 airborne early warning aircraft could not detect the J-20 from a safe enough distance. Wilsbach currently holds the position of Commander of the U.S. Air Combat Command (ACC) and previously served as Deputy Commander of the U.S. Forces in South Korea (2018–2020) and Commander of the Pacific Air Forces (July 2020 – February 2024). It was he who publicly spoke at a U.S. think tank seminar on March 15, 2022, revealing an incident where the J-20 came close to the F-35 in the East China Sea. Therefore, his words carry great authority.

(The core radar AN/TPY-2 of the THAAD system)

This South Korean blogger believes that four advanced radar systems deployed around the Tsushima Strait by the U.S., Japan, and South Korea cannot effectively detect the J-20. In addition to the U.S. Air Force's E-3 airborne early warning aircraft, there are also the AN/TPY-2 radar, the core radar of the THAAD system deployed in South Korea, the J/FPS-5 long-range search radar produced by Japan, and the latest AN/TPY-4 radar of the U.S.

(AN/TPY-4 radar of the United States)

The AN/TPY-2 radar of the THAAD system is an X-band long-range, ultra-high altitude active phased array antenna (AESA) radar, with a maximum detection range of up to 3,000 kilometers; the AN/TPY-4 radar, which was previously called TPY-X, is a land-based active electronically scanned array L-band multi-functional long-range 3D radar manufactured by Lockheed Martin for air defense surveillance. Its appearance is similar to a certain anti-stealth radar produced by China Electronics Technology Group. When rotating scanning, its maximum detection range is about 555 kilometers, and when in stop/gaze mode, the maximum detection range is 1,000 kilometers, but this radar still failed to detect the J-20.

The J/FPS-5 is a S-band and L-band 3D AESA radar developed by Mitsubishi Electric in Japan, first delivered to the Japan Air Self-Defense Force in 2008. It is a large fixed 3D radar, and specific indicators are confidential. It can detect aerial targets and track ballistic missiles. From the map of the deployment sites of this radar, it can be seen that there is one near the Tsushima Strait. In addition to these radars, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have E-2D and E-737 airborne early warning aircraft, as well as a large number of fighter jets conducting daily patrols. However, none of them have been able to detect the J-20.

(Large 3D AESA radar J/FPS-5 of Japan)

This fact has made the U.S., Japan, and South Korea anxious. For a long time, the U.S.-Japan-South Korea air forces have had an advantage in equipment quality over the Chinese Air Force. Now, the situation has reversed, which is a new situation they have never encountered before. This means that the strategies and tactics these three countries have practiced against China are now facing the dilemma of being completely overturned, and they may not even find effective countermeasures.

(Location of major radar stations in Japan)

Certainly, some U.S., Japanese, and South Korean military enthusiasts believe that this result might be because the J-20 used a low-altitude penetration strategy, hiding in the blind spots of the U.S. and Japanese long-range radars, and the U.S. and Japanese early warning aircraft would not be able to patrol the relevant airspace 24 hours a day. But this explanation is meaningless: facing the J-20, Japan and South Korea cannot monitor all important airspaces in real-time, and in wartime, everywhere is a breakthrough for us. Moreover, the J-20's active phased array radar can detect the E-3 early warning aircraft at a distance of 400 kilometers, and it is equipped with the PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile with a range exceeding 200 kilometers, and it may also be equipped with even longer-range long-range air-to-air missiles. In wartime, the U.S. and Japanese early warning aircraft will be targets.

Now, at least, South Korean media have started to realize that the balance of military power in the East Asia region has begun to tilt toward China.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537616824809980426/

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