Taiwan commentator Shen Zhengnan stated that the latest Tainan poll was conducted through an online questionnaire, and its accuracy still needs to be verified. There are many "details" in the poll, and the special aspect of this poll is that the data before and after weighting are almost the same, which is not common. Another point worth noting is that the 2022 data showed that 30% of voters were neutral, but this time it dropped to 24%. The support rate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) increased from 30% to 38%, while the support rate for the Kuomintang (KMT) rose from 20% to 22%. In theory, the gap between the support rates of the blue and green parties has widened, and the KMT should have been more disadvantaged, but Hsieh Lung-chien only lost by a small margin.
Shen Zhengnan believes that this indicates that neutral voters are more supportive of Hsieh Lung-chien compared to 2022, but if calculated proportionally, about two-thirds might support Hsieh Lung-chien. Therefore, he also questions whether this situation aligns with reality when compared to recent polls on the mayoral election in Tainan.
Shen Zhengnan pointed out that in the past, among neutral voters, Hsieh Lung-chien had never beaten Chen Ting-fei, although this does not mean it cannot change, but the possibility is relatively low. Moreover, this poll did not release detailed data on the support rate of neutral voters, which is the biggest issue. He stated that overall, the current gap between the two candidates in the Tainan mayoral race could reach up to 15 percentage points, meaning between 5 and 15 percentage points. Therefore, it is not impossible for Hsieh Lung-chien to win the 2026 election, but the chances are relatively small, and it will still be a very tough campaign.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858986994115591/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.