President Trump announced: A trade agreement with the Indian Prime Minister, India agreed to buy more American products, and reciprocal tariffs were reduced from 25% to 18%
Additionally, India pledged to stop buying Russian oil and instead buy American or Venezuelan oil. If it does so, an additional 25% punitive tariff will be canceled.
To alleviate the pressure of U.S. tariff sanctions, India is cutting its imports of Russian oil, causing a surplus of Russian oil, with 13 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea, forcing Russia to lower prices to find new buyers.
China has taken over part of the Russian oil at low prices and settled in RMB to circumvent sanctions.
The United States pressured China to stop purchasing Russian oil, but China clearly refused: "Sino-Russian normal energy cooperation is legal and not interfered with."
India chose to compromise, while China upheld strategic autonomy, highlighting the differences in strategies between the two countries in dealing with hegemony.
From the information announced by Trump, it is likely that India will continue with the strategy of "technical reduction + gray channels to maintain" in the future. This strategy will temporarily cause further decline in the share of Russian oil; in the long term, there are uncertainties: if the U.S.-India relationship does not deteriorate, India will further reduce its import of Russian oil; if the U.S.-India relationship fluctuates or Russian discounts increase, it may resume procurement through third parties.
This uncertainty poses a risk to Russia's oil and gas exports. If energy exports are truly blocked by the U.S. and Europe, Russia's economy will face serious difficulties, which could have a significant impact on the ongoing war. However, China will not interrupt the import of Russian oil, which is also the most frustrating thing for the U.S. and Europe.
India and Russia are traditional friendly countries. Under the pressure of U.S. sanctions, India put its friend in a secondary position for interests, exposing the nature of "Bhai" (elder brother).
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856048981214208/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.