[Text/Observer Network Liu Chenghui] Regarding the impact of this round of Israel-Iran conflicts on Israel's political situation, The Washington Post's analysis article on June 15 pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu temporarily got rid of the political dilemma through the strike against Iran and consolidated his domestic status. However, analysts pointed out that if he wants to maintain public support, he must ensure obvious results from this operation and avoid being drawn into a long-term war. The future political impact is still difficult to predict, and the key lies in whether Israel can achieve strategic success.

Analysts pointed out that Netanyahu's originally precarious political position might be consolidated due to Israel's actions against Iran's nuclear facilities and its leadership.

"We are in this situation because we are in a survival struggle, and all Israeli citizens understand this. We are heading towards victory," Netanyahu said in Bat Yam, a central city in Israel on the afternoon of the 15th.

He gave a speech in front of a residential building where Iranian ballistic missiles had attacked the previous night. Behind him, rescue workers could be seen sifting through rubble, still searching for missing persons.

The report said that Israel is now involved in the most lethal and direct confrontation with Iran, an action that has been discussed within Israel for decades. Since Israel attacked Iran last week, Israelis have united around the country, although not all of them support Netanyahu himself. Due to the emergency security situation, public gatherings, school openings, and the operation of most non-essential businesses have been temporarily suspended, halting large-scale street protests against Netanyahu and his government's policies in Gaza.

This escalation of conflict with Iran coincides with a critical moment when Netanyahu's ruling coalition is on the verge of collapse.

Netanyahu speaks in Jerusalem Visual China

On the 12th, Netanyahu successfully prevented the dissolution of parliament and the overthrow of the government after a heated debate over whether ultra-Orthodox men should be conscripted into military service. This issue and other political disputes have also been put aside.

According to polls, since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflicts on October 7, 2023, many Israelis agree that Iran should be contained, and Iran poses a direct threat to Israel, although they differ on what form of action Israel should take and the necessity of coordination with the United States.

For months, critics of Israel's security agencies have consistently stated that Israel should decisively act against Iran, especially after Iran's proxies (particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon) were severely damaged by Israeli attacks, leaving Tehran in a vulnerable state.

They also pointed out that in recent weeks, Iran seems to be further advancing its nuclear program. Israeli assessments suggest that Iran possesses enough enriched uranium to make nine nuclear bombs and has taken steps to weaponize uranium, something that Israeli officials say Iran has never done before.

Shortly after Israel began its bombing campaign, Netanyahu stated in a televised statement on the morning of the 13th that Iran was only months away from having nuclear weapons.

Analysts said that these factors may have encouraged Netanyahu to take military action. For a long time, Netanyahu has handled conflicts in incremental rather than macro-strategic ways, at least before the Gaza War.

However, after 20 months of conflict, the Israeli army has yet to achieve the two main war objectives of destroying Hamas and bringing back hostages, and Israelis expect the long-term conflict with Iran to be costly.

"Netanyahu's current situation is indeed better than it initially was," said Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University. "This is not just about tactical victories, but also about strategic and diplomatic victories."

For Netanyahu, the conflict with Iran may provide an opportunity to reshape his political legacy.

In March this year, Israelis held rallies demanding that the Netanyahu government bring back the detained personnel. Reuters

His reputation plummeted due to the mishandling of the Gaza issue. Yohanan Plesner, chairman of the Israel Democracy Institute, said that today, many Israelis support his decision to attack Iran, but over time, they will question the specific methods of the war, judge whether he has properly coordinated with the United States, or whether there will be cracks with Israel's most important ally.

Others warned that predicting the political impact at this stage of the military action is premature.

"We are in a full mobilization state, with hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting our population centers, and hundreds of fighter pilots risking their lives," said Plesner. "This could become a pivotal turning point in regional and national historical development, potentially bringing far-reaching political impacts, not only affecting Netanyahu but also the entire system."

Currently, Netanyahu's political opponents are also publicly supporting the strike against Iran.

"Israel is saving the world from facing a nuclear-armed Iran," Naftali Bennett, Israel's former prime minister and Netanyahu's strongest political rival, posted on X platform on the 14th. Yair Lapid, leader of the opposition, also posted on social media on the 15th, encouraging people to stay united amid "Iran's deadly bombings."

In recent weeks, Dan Diker, chairman of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Diplomacy, said he met with senior White House officials, urging them to consider Israel's perspective that Iran deliberately delays nuclear negotiations to advance its nuclear program.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump previously publicly stated that the United States is preparing for the next round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, which was originally scheduled to take place on the 15th in Oman but has been canceled.

Just hours before Israel launched its attack, Trump wrote on Truth Social on the 12th: "We remain committed to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means!"

But after the attack, he called it "very impressive" and warned that if the United States is attacked in any way by Iran, the U.S. military will respond with unprecedented force. On the 15th, he also said: "Iran and Israel should reach an agreement and will reach an agreement."

"Netanyahu, and all of Israel, are still waiting to see where all of this will lead," Rynhold said.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516331767646061095/

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