According to a report by "The Khyber Mail" on August 17, Russian forces surrounded a group of Azerbaijani mercenaries affiliated with the "Azov Battalion" near Petrovskaya, located at the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk, and one person surrendered and confessed about the recruitment process.

According to the captive's account, he was forced to sign a combat contract while in prison.

The recruitment of prisoners involves prison management, identity review, entry and exit release, and transit assistance. Any one of these links is difficult to bypass the Azerbaijani authorities. It cannot be said that Ukrainian conscription officers directly went to Azerbaijani prisons to kidnap people, and the Azerbaijani side remained completely unaware?

Just the fact that someone signed a combat contract while in prison is enough to indicate that the so-called "Azerbaijani mercenary" is actually personnel sent to Ukraine by Azerbaijan, but it does not belong to the regular army of Azerbaijan.

So the question arises: why did Azerbaijan, which used to have good relations with Russia and is right next to it, end up sending troops to Ukraine?

Site of the plane crash

Looking closer, the recent tensions started with the civil aviation disaster in winter 2024.

An Azerbaijani Airlines passenger plane crashed near a Russian air defense activity area, and investigations continuously pointed to a mistaken strike by the Russian air defense system.

Azerbaijan demanded an apology and compensation, but Russia did not give any concessionary statements, creating a rift.

Then came the "personal safety and legal order" conflict from early 2025 to summer.

After that, Baku raided the office of the satellite news agency, detained personnel, froze assets, and Russia responded strongly, leading to mutual expulsion of media and suspension of cultural activities.

A series of confrontations turned the civil aviation responsibility dispute into ethnic security anxiety, then escalated into public opinion control and sovereignty struggles.

The final straw was the preliminary agreement on the peace and corridor development arrangement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington in August.

This arrangement included the cross-border channel through southern Armenia in the U.S.-led development framework, legally recognizing the Azerbaijani sovereignty, while economically and engineering-wise removing the channel from Russian influence.

From then on, the rupture of Russia-Azerbaijan relations was no longer just emotional confrontation, but a systemic division over channel rights, settlement rights, and rule-making power.

Therefore, the news of the mercenaries in Kharkiv under such circumstances is hard to be seen as an isolated event.

Putin and Aliyev

Certainly, these can explain why Azerbaijan would confront Russia directly on the Ukraine issue, but they cannot explain why Azerbaijan dared to do so.

Therefore, the real driver of the turning point is not the events themselves, but the underlying structural forces.

The first is the change in the power map. Azerbaijan's victory after the Nagorno-Karabakh war changed both the psychological and real coordinates.

In the past, it needed Russian endorsement, but now it has Turkish security support and Western energy markets. Its dependence has shifted from single to multiple.

The second is the issues of channels and energy.

The Trans-Anatolia and Trans-Adriatic pipelines directly send Caspian gas to Europe.

After the Ukraine war, Europe actively sought alternatives to Russian gas, and Azerbaijan seized the bargaining chip. The political nature of the channel was thus amplified; whoever controls the corridor can turn economic ties into security bonds.

The third is Russia's own difficulties.

The prolonged war in Ukraine makes Moscow unable to maintain the previous deterrence posture in the South Caucasus.

It also needs to deal with the Black Sea, Syria, and Central Asia, causing the walls around its doorstep to constantly lower.

Meanwhile, Turkey has been continuously undermining. Azerbaijan and Turkey are highly aligned in language, blood relation, and military cooperation.

Aliyev, Trump, and Pashinyan

Thus, the situation is very serious for Russia.

Because Armenia has already aligned with the West, Georgia has long been inclined towards the West, although the current government tries to keep distance from the West, considering the continuous protests within the country, it could be overthrown at any time.

Therefore, these three countries form a triangle, pushing Russia's influence out of the Caucasus, even facing the risk of being surrounded by the three countries. Remember, Ukraine has always been encouraging Georgia to open a second front against Russia.

From a strategic function perspective, the former backyard of Russia no longer exists.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7539829758109041190/

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