According to a report by Asia Times on September 9, the Russian Ministry of Defense accidentally leaked a map during a briefing, which not only included the five regions that have been annexed by Russia—Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—but also marked the Nikolaev and Odessa regions in southern Ukraine as part of Russia.

This undoubtedly sends a strong signal: Russia's goal is not limited to the areas it already controls, but rather to further advance, attempting to completely cut off Ukraine's access to the sea and take full control of the entire Black Sea coast.

This is certainly unacceptable for Ukraine.

Odessa is considered a gem of the Black Sea, serving as a lifeline for Ukraine's grain and metal exports.

Nikolaev is also an important shipbuilding and military industrial base.

If these two regions are annexed, Ukraine will lose its entire maritime strategic space and become an inland country, trapped in the heart of Europe.

Russia's decision to display such a map at this time is likely not accidental, but rather an intentional effort to visually present the boundaries of the "New Russia."

Behind this move, there are both psychological warfare considerations and the intention to test the international reaction.

Through one map, the Russian side has directly put its potential future plans on the table, using it to strengthen pressure on the West and Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If Russia actually manages to capture Nikolaev and Odessa, the entire war situation will undergo a complete transformation.

From a military and geopolitical perspective, Ukraine will lose its last seaport, becoming an inland country, with its economic lifelines almost severed.

Russia, on the other hand, will fully control the northern coast of the Black Sea, gaining strategic depth. It will be able to freely deploy the Black Sea Fleet and open a land corridor to the Transnistria region, directly threatening Moldova and Romania, pushing the shadow of war to the eastern border of NATO.

From a strategic narrative perspective, Putin can define this step as the realization of the "New Russia," completing the unfinished mission of Catherine the Great, bringing the entire southern Ukraine back into the territory, and making it a symbolic victory of the "Imperial Revival."

For Ukraine, this strike is not just about losing territory, but about the collapse of the nation's form.

Losss of Odessa means losing the ability to export grain, and Ukraine's relationships with developing countries in Africa and the Middle East will disintegrate.

The loss of Nikolaev would mean a severe blow to industrial and defense manufacturing capabilities.

This situation would severely undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people, leading to more surrenderists within the country and possibly causing the West to abandon aid.

It's still possible to negotiate now, but once these two regions fall, it will be Russia's word that counts.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Of course, from the current situation, the likelihood of Russia actually capturing Nikolaev and Odessa is extremely low.

The Russian military's advances in the Donbas direction have already fallen into a stalemate, and the progress made during the summer has been minimal.

Although the Russian forces can launch intensive air strikes and drone attacks, their breakthrough capability on the ground is seriously insufficient.

To push forward to these two southern regions, they would need to cross hundreds of kilometers of deep defensive lines and face determined resistance from the Ukrainian army, which is entrenched in cities, rivers, and deep defenses.

Moreover, the Ukrainian military has shown some advantages in the Black Sea direction, continuously striking the Russian Black Sea Fleet with drones and missiles, forcing many Russian ships to retreat to ports far away from the front lines.

This means that Russia lacks naval support and cannot effectively organize an amphibious assault or encirclement of Odessa.

In addition, Western intelligence support for Ukraine gives the Ukrainian military a significant advantage in defending the southern coastal areas.

Furthermore, Turkey's control over the Bosporus Strait imposes natural constraints on the Russian navy's movements in the Black Sea.

Therefore, unless extreme circumstances occur, Russia is almost impossible to achieve this goal. Hence, Zelenskyy shows no intention of surrendering, showing no fear at all.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Evidently, the Russian side is well aware of how difficult this task is. Then, why would they leak the map to expose their future goals?

This very act demonstrates their sophistication in psychological warfare and strategic communication.

Firstly, the Russians want to tell the Ukrainian army and people that the land you think you have secured is already drawn on our map.

This creates anxiety and a sense of helplessness, weakening Ukraine's morale.

This is also a pressure on the West. Currently, Europe is discussing whether to increase security guarantees for Ukraine. By releasing this map, Russia is warning: if you continue to assist, we will expand our offensive, even dragging Moldova into the conflict, increasing the concerns of the West.

Therefore, even if they cannot capture the regions, the symbolic significance of the map itself can still play a certain role.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548365125750424105/

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