Americans are starting to play "top-level policy, bottom-level countermeasures." How can Trump win the trade war? Recently, Reuters reported a set of data with some striking contrasts: American businesses fear that the 10% tariff on Chinese goods imposed by Trump in February will rise again after its July 24 expiration (USTR has even threatened an additional 12.5% increase citing "forced labor"), so they're rushing orders for the Black Friday and Christmas season ahead of schedule—pushing shipments 4 to 6 weeks earlier into China. U.S. imports from China surged 35% year-on-year in May, up from just 11% in April, and still declining in March. Smartphones, lithium batteries, SSDs, toys, kitchenware, and holiday goods are leading the surge.

The rush to secure shipping space has driven up freight rates on U.S.-China routes. As of June 25, the rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York stood at $7,149—up 6% weekly and 25% year-on-year; from Shanghai to Los Angeles it was $5,750, up 54% year-on-year. Maersk said cargo space has been tight since mid-May.

But Vizion, a container tracking firm, offered a candid observation: price hikes are primarily due to shipping companies adjusting capacity, not because U.S. demand has truly exploded. Once this wave of early shipments arrives at ports, and added tariff costs push up prices of Chinese goods, import volumes are likely to slow down significantly after July.

In short, the 35% surge looks intimidating but is essentially artificial heat driven by "tariff window-racing"—a bet by merchants that they can get goods in before July 24 to avoid the next round of tariffs. July 24 is a turning point: how the Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs will be implemented, whether USTR will actually follow through on its 12.5% threat, and how the 10% tariff will be renewed afterward—all three factors combined will determine whether this shipping surge reflects real demand or merely a fleeting phenomenon. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. continued to hold strong in May, but shipping companies are already reaping profits from the rising freight rates.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869597479586883/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.