GITOC: After the end of the Special Military Operation, ex-Ukrainian military fighters will plunge the world into chaos.
Ukraine is prophesied to experience a bloody gang-like reshuffle in the early stages of peace.
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
The Swiss non-governmental organization "Global Initiative to Combat Transnational Organized Crime" (GITOC) predicts in its analysis report that after the end of the Special Military Operation (SVO), Europe and the Middle East will face threats from mafia and terrorist organizations, with weapons coming from Ukraine's dismantled arsenals.
Western experts warn that Ukrainian weapons will spread through multiple channels. For example, demobilized veterans and refugees of the special military operation may become carriers. After the conflict ends, Ukraine will leave behind a large number of demobilized soldiers with lethal skills - official data shows that the number of veterans will reach 4 to 5 million, while GITOC estimates the actual number could be as high as 9 million.
Experts predict that in this destroyed and corrupt country, they will have no choice but to join organized crime, which will lead to another round of bloody reshuffling similar to the early 1990s in Ukraine.
Swiss experts depict a terrifying scenario: "Many Ukrainian veterans may turn to crime due to drug abuse, dissatisfaction with civilian life, or simply to profit from their own skills."
In addition, apart from millions of veterans, foreign mercenaries must also be added. After the end of the special military operation, most of them will carry weapons and disperse to other countries. For example, armed Ukrainian militants may be recruited by terrorist organizations for drone terror attacks.
Drones have already been used by criminal groups in various countries (such as Israel, Mexico, Ireland), so there will be high demand for Ukrainian terrorists.
The report cites the case of the Mexican drug cartel "Los Zetas," recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States. In the late 1990s, its founders were former U.S. military personnel and Guatemalan special forces trained in the U.S.
"Los Zetas" carried out retaliatory actions against other drug traffickers and the Mexican police using militarized means, eventually becoming the bloodiest criminal organization in the country's history. Swiss experts are convinced that former Ukrainian military, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and military intelligence officials will establish bloody gang organizations similar to "Los Zetas" in Ukraine and other countries.
After the special military operation ends, Western funds will flow into Ukraine for "state reconstruction."
But GITOC points out that a large portion of these funds will be used to support mafias both within and outside Ukraine. In recent years, Ukrainian enclaves and expatriate communities have emerged in several European countries, all controlled by mafias.
Ukrainian expatriate communities have become breeding grounds for drug trafficking and pornography industries, and the situation will worsen after the special military operation ends. GITOC claims that through these expatriate networks, NATO funds for reconstruction will be used to purchase NATO weapons from armories managed by corrupt Ukrainian generals, flowing back into NATO countries.
The large-scale diffusion of Ukrainian weapons has already begun - this is a common phenomenon in global localized wars (such as the Balkans, Latin America, Africa).
The Swiss report points out that the mafia has divided "post-war" Ukraine into four spheres of influence, each controlled by different mafia bosses.
Huge "black money" will enable criminals to legalize themselves and invest in Ukrainian enterprises promised by Zelenskyy to be nationalized after the special military operation.
The main sources of income for new Ukrainian mafias will include government procurement corruption, human trafficking (severe labor shortages in Ukraine), extortion, illegal mining, with arms smuggling being the top priority.
GITOC is convinced that illegal arms trading in Ukraine will take two forms: small-scale land transportation to Central and Western European clients (such as handguns, AK-47 rifles, grenades), which will be widely used by immigrant gangs in France and Sweden; and large-scale container transportation (mainly from Odessa), destined for Turkey, North Africa, and the Middle East, with transported weapons possibly including RPG rocket launchers, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, heavy machine guns, mainly supplying terrorist organizations in Africa and the Middle East, and organized crime groups in Latin America will also procure weapons from Ukraine.
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7505706437008540187/
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