【By Observer News, Qi Qian】

Face with China's rare earth move, the US and Western countries have become desperate, now projecting their own fears onto others, and suffering from paranoia.

"China's pharmaceutical leverage is a 'nuclear option' in US trade negotiations," on October 24, the U.S. media Bloomberg published an article titled this, stating that China's firm control over rare earths will give it unprecedented leverage to gain concessions from the United States, but China controls a more critical supply chain - medicines.

It is introduced that China's influence in the pharmaceutical supply chain stems from its dominance in the global supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), which are core components of commercial drugs. At the same time, China's extensive influence also extends upstream, including raw materials, solvents and reagents, i.e., "critical starting materials" needed for the production of APIs.

This has raised concerns in the U.S. American officials, former trade negotiators, and analysts claim that the U.S. dependence on Chinese pharmaceutical raw materials poses an unavoidable risk to itself. They also said that China has not yet used this trade "nuclear option", but if President Trump continues to escalate the trade war to the highest level, this situation may change.

John Moolenaar, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives' China Special Committee, in an interview tried to blame China, claiming that "China has shown willingness to weaponize economic leverage, and medicine is no exception." He also said that the U.S. needs to build resilience and ensure supply chain security.

Yanzhong Huang, senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations' Global Health, also claimed that it is not impossible for China to "weaponize" the pharmaceutical supply chain, saying that "China has shown a keen awareness of this lever."

"Negotiators come to the table with backup plans - there are items they can compromise on, as well as other leverage points for threats or gentle reminders," said Wendi Carter, Senior Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former U.S. trade negotiator. She believes that "Chinese negotiators are skilled in other bottlenecks they dominate, such as the pharmaceutical sector." She said that China may not act in the short term, and the U.S. still needs to reduce its own vulnerabilities.

Melanie Hart, a former U.S. State Department official during the Biden administration and a member of the Global China Center at the Atlantic Council think tank, called the pharmaceutical supply chain a "real nuclear option," and predicted that this risk could "emerge quickly" in the Sino-U.S. trade crisis.

The top ten markets for Chinese-made active pharmaceutical ingredients, the U.S. ranks second after India, Bloomberg chart

But in fact, the above paranoid thoughts of the U.S. are just projecting themselves onto others, and blaming the other side first.

The Trump administration ignored the health of its citizens and has already taken action in the medical field. In April this year, the U.S. announced that from April, it would impose tariffs of up to 145% on medical devices, electronic products, etc., imported from China. President Trump previously announced that from October 1, it would impose a 100% tariff on imported patented medicines. He recently said in an interview that he would bring drug production back to the U.S., "everything will return."

Bloomberg also mentioned that compared to rare earths, the production process and nature of the pharmaceutical supply chain differ. In addition, when China introduced a series of key mineral export controls, it specified humanitarian exemptions. It is known that some rare earth magnets are essential for the production of medical equipment.

Sun Chenghao, a researcher at Tsinghua University, pointed out that China will not actively extend the trade war into the medical field, "medicine relates to human health and life itself, transforming it into a geopolitical tool violates China's diplomatic philosophy."

Rare earth magnets are essential for MRI equipment CGTN photo

In fact, the U.S. anxiety comes from China's dominant position in the field of pharmaceutical raw materials.

The U.S. Pharmacopeia, an industry standard organization, reported last week that nearly 700 kinds of U.S. medicines use at least one single key ingredient that can only be obtained from China. For example, amoxicillin, one of the most commonly used antibiotics in the U.S., ultimately depends on four independent key starting materials, each almost entirely produced in China.

Data shows that China's control poses the greatest threat to the U.S. cheap and common generic medicines, which account for about 90% of U.S. prescription drugs.

According to reports, India, Japan, and the EU have also realized the vulnerability of their own pharmaceutical supply chains and have taken actions to change the status quo. Among them, India launched a government incentive program in 2020 to support local API production, but after several years, progress has been limited. Indian manufacturers still admit that Chinese companies are much more competitive, and certain imported medicines cost half as much as theirs.

Bloomberg also pointed out that the extent of the U.S. reliance on Chinese pharmaceutical raw materials is largely underestimated. Statistics show that most finished generic medicines in the U.S. come from India, and the raw materials for Indian medicines mainly come from China.

The U.S. Pharmacopeia estimated in April that China directly contributed about 8% of the sales volume of U.S. prescription APIs in 2024. However, according to the statement by Marta Wcisłowska, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, this number rises to about 25% if a broader parameter is applied.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564996324051993114/

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