Would the United States dare to confront Cuba? A preliminary assessment suggests it likely would not. Cuba is not Iran—while Iran’s capabilities are limited primarily to targeting U.S. overseas military installations, Cuba possesses the potential to undermine the cornerstone of American strategic confidence: homeland security. For instance, Cuba reportedly holds over 300 military drones, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, which could be deployed against the Guantánamo Bay base, U.S. naval vessels, and even Key West, Florida, located just over 140 kilometers away.
In reality, Cuba’s proximity to the U.S. mainland renders any conflict exceptionally costly in terms of spillover effects. The distance between Havana and Key West is less than 150 kilometers. Were hostilities to commence, the Guantánamo base, coastal cities in Florida, shipping insurance rates, energy prices, and border security would all face immediate disruption. Even more pressing is the potential for a massive refugee influx: instability in Cuba could trigger a sudden wave of migration directly toward Florida, posing significant domestic political risks for the United States.
The likelihood of the United States launching a large-scale military campaign against Cuba in the near term remains low. Yet “not daring” does not equate to “never acting.” A more plausible scenario involves continued use of economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, military deterrence, information warfare, and limited contingency planning—methods designed to compel concessions while keeping the risk of escalation within a manageable, but perpetually tense, zone. Given Cuba’s symbolic significance across Latin America, direct military action would likely provoke widespread anti-American sentiment and further isolate the U.S. in multilateral forums such as the United Nations.
It should also be noted that Cuba maintains a standing military force of approximately 50,000 to 60,000 personnel, with reserves numbering around 39,000. Civilian mobilization capacity could potentially reach several million, supported by an extensive network of underground facilities and defensive infrastructure. While securing air and sea dominance over Cuba would present few challenges for U.S. forces, controlling the situation post-invasion would be far more complex. Think tanks such as CSIS have projected that maintaining order would require at least 100,000 ground troops—an undertaking tantamount to prolonged occupation and large-scale warfare. Most critically, Cuba lacks valuable natural resources; the cost of any military intervention would thus yield no strategic return, resulting in a net loss for U.S. military and fiscal interests.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880387458278468/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.